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Colombia are over priced at 3/1, I’m not saying they will beat England, but they shouldn’t be 3/1.

As I said in other thread, £10 on Colombia with sky bet gets you a free £5 bet.

I have gone £10 on Colombia in 90 minutes @ 3/1 and free £5 on Quintero motm @ 11/1.

(never bet a motm but couldn’t get Colombia in et or pens as one bet)

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6 hours ago, sbcmfc said:

Colombia are over priced at 3/1, I’m not saying they will beat England, but they shouldn’t be 3/1.

agreed, 2-0 the coffee makers 22/1

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On 7/1/2018 at 10:04 PM, Clyde1998 said:

Current Outright Win Odds with Bet365:

  • 11/4 - Brazil (13/8 to reach final)
  • 4/1 - England (6/4), France (2/1)
  • 6/1 - Belgium (10/3), Croatia (15/8)
  • 17/1 - Uruguay (6/1)
  • 20/1 - Russia (5/1)
  • 25/1 - Sweden (7/1)

 

When you convert the betting odds into implied probability, and adjusting to make all the percentages total to 100%, it shows:

  • 24.3% - Brazil (32.8% in the above model)
  • 18.2% - England (12.9%), France (14.0%)
  • 13.0% - Belgium (9.8%), Croatia (12.1%)
  • 5.4% - Uruguay (9.1%)
  • 4.4% - Russia (2.6%)
  • 3.5% - Sweden (6.6%)

Compared to the model (the Twitter thing), Brazil, Uruguay and Sweden are all understated in the odds - with their chances (according to the model) being better than the implied probability from the odds. Brazil should be roughly 2/1, Uruguay 10/1 and Sweden 14/1 based on these figures.

England are the most overestimated in the betting odds, probably because that's where a large amount of money is going at the moment. They should be about 27/4 (or 6.75/1).

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Cashed in both my England to win and Kane top scorer bets - £39 and £140 (Was £160 for both if they won)

Cashed in when it was 1-1 and it's likely Kane wont play on Saturday and Lukaku will get a brace

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13 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Cashed in both my England to win and Kane top scorer bets - £39 and £140 (Was £160 for both if they won)

Cashed in when it was 1-1 and it's likely Kane wont play on Saturday and Lukaku will get a brace

We believe you 😜

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13 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Cashed in both my England to win and Kane top scorer bets - £39 and £140 (Was £160 for both if they won)

Cashed in when it was 1-1 and it's likely Kane wont play on Saturday and Lukaku will get a brace

My mrs made me cash in my potential 850 at 230. Was going to wait until they beat Croatia so well done her 👍😂

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15 hours ago, DoonTheSlope said:

How did the 2-1 on the favourites pan out? Doubt there was any value to be had back in the end

Of the 48 groups stage matches 11 finished 2-1.  8 of those 11 were won by the team considered to be the favourite (the only contentious ones I can see would be Switzerland beating Serbia and Croatia beating Iceland but I'd say the first teams in each case would have been favourites).  If you'd bet a tenner on each game you'd have outlayed £480 and at average odds of 9/1 you'd have got back £720 so a profit of £240 (50%).  One of my mates actually bet both teams to win 2-1 in quite a few of the games and although that doubled his stake some of the outsiders winning at a price much bigger than 9/1 (Japan v Colombia and Saudi v Egypt) meant he returned a pretty tidy profit. 

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Well my big bets returned a handsome profit to see me alright, my match betting on the World Cup didn’t return much if any profit. It makes up for my dismal season.

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On 7/11/2018 at 11:33 PM, DoonTheSlope said:

How did the 2-1 on the favourites pan out? Doubt there was any value to be had back in the end

I made £260 profit, layout was £660 (two matches I placed the bet on both teams).

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Productive overall for me. Didn’t win much during the matches, but today gave me, with bet365 offer, btts 1st half @8/1, I them put on btts 2nd half @10/3. Also took sky price boost of 4/1 for Mbappe to score anytime and had France to win overall @ 6/1. Made about £250 today with overall winnings of about £180. 

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I didn't have anything on but got second in the pub predictor due to France winning. 60 quid back from a fiver, not much but not the worst

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How come the 1st goal went down as an OG?

Normally only an OG if off target, even though deflection took out keeper.

(only thing I could think was an indirect free kick?)

(I’d bet Griezman :lol: )

Edited by sbcmfc

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