sbcmfc Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 Colombia are over priced at 3/1, I’m not saying they will beat England, but they shouldn’t be 3/1. As I said in other thread, £10 on Colombia with sky bet gets you a free £5 bet. I have gone £10 on Colombia in 90 minutes @ 3/1 and free £5 on Quintero motm @ 11/1. (never bet a motm but couldn’t get Colombia in et or pens as one bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan cake Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 6 hours ago, sbcmfc said: Colombia are over priced at 3/1, I’m not saying they will beat England, but they shouldn’t be 3/1. agreed, 2-0 the coffee makers 22/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 On 7/1/2018 at 10:04 PM, Clyde1998 said: Current Outright Win Odds with Bet365: 11/4 - Brazil (13/8 to reach final) 4/1 - England (6/4), France (2/1) 6/1 - Belgium (10/3), Croatia (15/8) 17/1 - Uruguay (6/1) 20/1 - Russia (5/1) 25/1 - Sweden (7/1) When you convert the betting odds into implied probability, and adjusting to make all the percentages total to 100%, it shows: 24.3% - Brazil (32.8% in the above model) 18.2% - England (12.9%), France (14.0%) 13.0% - Belgium (9.8%), Croatia (12.1%) 5.4% - Uruguay (9.1%) 4.4% - Russia (2.6%) 3.5% - Sweden (6.6%) Compared to the model (the Twitter thing), Brazil, Uruguay and Sweden are all understated in the odds - with their chances (according to the model) being better than the implied probability from the odds. Brazil should be roughly 2/1, Uruguay 10/1 and Sweden 14/1 based on these figures. England are the most overestimated in the betting odds, probably because that's where a large amount of money is going at the moment. They should be about 27/4 (or 6.75/1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoonTheSlope Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 How did the 2-1 on the favourites pan out? Doubt there was any value to be had back in the end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 Cashed in both my England to win and Kane top scorer bets - £39 and £140 (Was £160 for both if they won) Cashed in when it was 1-1 and it's likely Kane wont play on Saturday and Lukaku will get a brace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcs Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 13 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: Cashed in both my England to win and Kane top scorer bets - £39 and £140 (Was £160 for both if they won) Cashed in when it was 1-1 and it's likely Kane wont play on Saturday and Lukaku will get a brace We believe you 😜 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiefaetheferry Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 13 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: Cashed in both my England to win and Kane top scorer bets - £39 and £140 (Was £160 for both if they won) Cashed in when it was 1-1 and it's likely Kane wont play on Saturday and Lukaku will get a brace My mrs made me cash in my potential 850 at 230. Was going to wait until they beat Croatia so well done her 👍😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairbairn Posted July 12, 2018 Author Share Posted July 12, 2018 15 hours ago, DoonTheSlope said: How did the 2-1 on the favourites pan out? Doubt there was any value to be had back in the end Of the 48 groups stage matches 11 finished 2-1. 8 of those 11 were won by the team considered to be the favourite (the only contentious ones I can see would be Switzerland beating Serbia and Croatia beating Iceland but I'd say the first teams in each case would have been favourites). If you'd bet a tenner on each game you'd have outlayed £480 and at average odds of 9/1 you'd have got back £720 so a profit of £240 (50%). One of my mates actually bet both teams to win 2-1 in quite a few of the games and although that doubled his stake some of the outsiders winning at a price much bigger than 9/1 (Japan v Colombia and Saudi v Egypt) meant he returned a pretty tidy profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoonTheSlope Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 Well my big bets returned a handsome profit to see me alright, my match betting on the World Cup didn’t return much if any profit. It makes up for my dismal season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ibelieve!!! Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 On 7/11/2018 at 11:33 PM, DoonTheSlope said: How did the 2-1 on the favourites pan out? Doubt there was any value to be had back in the end I made £260 profit, layout was £660 (two matches I placed the bet on both teams). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dandydunn Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Productive overall for me. Didn’t win much during the matches, but today gave me, with bet365 offer, btts 1st half @8/1, I them put on btts 2nd half @10/3. Also took sky price boost of 4/1 for Mbappe to score anytime and had France to win overall @ 6/1. Made about £250 today with overall winnings of about £180. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 I didn't have anything on but got second in the pub predictor due to France winning. 60 quid back from a fiver, not much but not the worst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbcmfc Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 (edited) How come the 1st goal went down as an OG? Normally only an OG if off target, even though deflection took out keeper. (only thing I could think was an indirect free kick?) (I’d bet Griezman ) Edited July 16, 2018 by sbcmfc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Jim Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 I had a gambling nightmare this WC, redeemed a little by backing France to win BTTS in the final, but on the whole I’m well down. 😕 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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