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The Brexit Thread


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14 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Nothing actually, the fact the guardian has given Blair a platform  (again) makes perfect sense. 

I guess all papers like giving the platforms to people they agree with though it didn't help them in 2016 as their arguments were weak and not enough people were listening

On another front,  

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/scottish-nation-party-mp-pete-wishart-peoples-vote-could-deal-a-blow-for-scottish-independence-referendum-1-5759498

"People's Vote could deal a blow for Scottish independence referendum" - that is a misleading headline I think it's more to do with giving precedent for overturning a future successful indyref (not another blow for indyref2 itself) 

Edited by exile
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2 hours ago, exile said:

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/scottish-nation-party-mp-pete-wishart-peoples-vote-could-deal-a-blow-for-scottish-independence-referendum-1-5759498

"People's Vote could deal a blow for Scottish independence referendum" - that is a misleading headline I think it's more to do with giving precedent for overturning a future successful indyref (not another blow for indyref2 itself) 

No I don't see that. Brexit is a whole different issue to independence. Brexit is a choice to leave the EU made by an already fully independent country and Westminster can chooses whether it wants to go down the route of another referendum (I can't see that happening). Scotland is seeking independence and if it were achieved it would become an independent country. Now I'd presume in the initial few years it would be an SNP government in power calling the shots. I am pretty sure they'd not entertain a second referendum on whether to reverse the decision given how long Scotland has fought for independence. Independence has been 300+ years in coming whereas Brexit would be happening after just over two decades.

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5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No I don't see that. Brexit is a whole different issue to independence. Brexit is a choice to leave the EU made by an already fully independent country and Westminster can chooses whether it wants to go down the route of another referendum (I can't see that happening). Scotland is seeking independence and if it were achieved it would become an independent country. Now I'd presume in the initial few years it would be an SNP government in power calling the shots. I am pretty sure they'd not entertain a second referendum on whether to reverse the decision given how long Scotland has fought for independence. Independence has been 300+ years in coming whereas Brexit would be happening after just over two decades.

I think that is being a bit naive Craig. If we were to win a future independance referendum the unionist politicians and media would go apoplectic. They would use every conceivable weapon at their disposal to overturn the vote,  they wouldnt give a shit about comparisons. Any precedent that had been set on a second vote in a political referendum would be a concern unless we had a huge cushion , eg the vote was something like 60-40, which is highly unlikely.

At least with Brexit there is media support for both remain and leave. There is not one UK media outlet that would fight against a second vote on Scotish independance. 

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1 minute ago, TDYER63 said:

I think that is being a bit naive Craig. If we were to win a future independance referendum the unionist politicians and media would go apoplectic. They would use every conceivable weapon at their disposal to overturn the vote,  they wouldnt give a shit about comparisons. Any precedent that had been set on a second vote in a political referendum would be a concern unless we had a huge cushion , eg the vote was something like 60-40, which is highly unlikely.

At least with Brexit there is media support for both remain and leave. There is not one UK media outlet that would fight against a second vote on Scotish independance. 

The point is though that, whereas now, it is Westminster that calls all the shots and fobs us off with words like 'now is not the time' then in an Independent Scotland it would be Holyrood calling the shots and Nicola Sturgeon would be doing the fobbing - if it came to that.

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

The point is though that, whereas now, it is Westminster that calls all the shots and fobs us off with words like 'now is not the time' then in an Independent Scotland it would be Holyrood calling the shots and Nicola Sturgeon would be doing the fobbing - if it came to that.

I am not sure I am following you. The second vote would be before we became OFFICIALLY independant, not after.

Just like Brexit, there will be a long period of time before we become officially independant. Within that period we will still be in the UK.  If the UK play hardball , which they would, and people start doubting their vote, like is happening with Brexit, a second referendum could easily be called if a precedent had been set.  

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1 minute ago, TDYER63 said:

I am not sure I am following you. The second vote would be before we became OFFICIALLY independant, not after.

Just like Brexit, there will be a long period of time before we become officially independant. Within that period we will still be in the UK.  If the UK play hardball , which they would, and people start doubting their vote, like is happening with Brexit, a second referendum could easily be called if a precedent had been set.  

But how likely is that to happen given the current climate? Lets say what you say happens. Sure the unionists will be apopleptic just as the Yes voters last time were but tough cheese the result stood. Now as the UK is staring down the barrel of Brexit and dark years forecast ahead can you see potential Yes voters from an indyref2 getting itchy feet and wanting to leap back into the UK in post-Brexit climate? I cannot see it.

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2 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

But how likely is that to happen given the current climate? Lets say what you say happens. Sure the unionists will be apopleptic just as the Yes voters last time were but tough cheese the result stood. Now as the UK is staring down the barrel of Brexit and dark years forecast ahead can you see potential Yes voters from an indyref2 getting itchy feet and wanting to leap back into the UK in post-Brexit climate? I cannot see it.

That may be the case if a second Brexit referendum produces the same result as the first. But they wont be staring down the barrel of Brexit if a second referendum overturns the leave vote.  

Admiitedly the second scenario probably takes Indyref 2 off the immediate agenda anyway  . But do you want to risk any future Indyref by setting this precedent ? 

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4 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

That may be the case if a second Brexit referendum produces the same result as the first. But they wont be staring down the barrel of Brexit if a second referendum overturns the leave vote.  

Admiitedly the second scenario probably takes Indyref 2 off the immediate agenda anyway  . But do you want to risk any future Indyref by setting this precedent ? 

I do recognise the risk but there is another side to this as well.

The SNP's position and big reason for pressing for a second referendum on independence was because it is being taken out of the EU against the wishes of the majority of Scots okay? The position the SNP want is to stay in the EU.

That being the case they have to be seen to be pushing for this to happen in any way that they can and a People's Vote is a means to achieving that goal. If the SNP blocked such a vote it goes totally against what they have pushed for to remain in Europe. They would face a massive backlash from those who want to stay in the union who would say it proves the SNP don't really give a stuff about staying in the EU and are using Brexit just as an excuse to have another indyref. Not only that they'd run the very real risk of losing new SNP members and voters who joined supporting their pro-EU stance. 

People's Vote (if it happens) is the  first big decision to come the SNP's way and they'd lose plenty by blocking it. Sure they may lose lots if your scenario came about but that is a long, long way off even becoming a remote possibility at the moment.

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19 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I do recognise the risk but there is another side to this as well.

The SNP's position and big reason for pressing for a second referendum on independence was because it is being taken out of the EU against the wishes of the majority of Scots okay? The position the SNP want is to stay in the EU.

That being the case they have to be seen to be pushing for this to happen in any way that they can and a People's Vote is a means to achieving that goal. If the SNP blocked such a vote it goes totally against what they have pushed for to remain in Europe. They would face a massive backlash from those who want to stay in the union who would say it proves the SNP don't really give a stuff about staying in the EU and are using Brexit just as an excuse to have another indyref. Not only that they'd run the very real risk of losing new SNP members and voters who joined supporting their pro-EU stance. 

People's Vote (if it happens) is the  first big decision to come the SNP's way and they'd lose plenty by blocking it. Sure they may lose lots if your scenario came about but that is a long, long way off even becoming a remote possibility at the moment.

I totally agree regarding the SNPs position however they dont necessarily need to block a second vote, can they not simply abstain. The Unionists  have gone to great lengths letting everyone know 30% of SNP voters chose to leave the EU. Could the SNP not simply say it is mindful that a portion of their support want to leave and that they respect this. With regards to the other section of the SNP support, ie those that voted remain, what do they want more, an independent scotland or to be in the EU ?

 If it is the former then cant they  see a total cock up of Brexit is the closest we will get to a second indyref and that a people’s vote on Brexit could risk a future indyref ?  I voted Remain but I dont care either way about a peoples vote. 

Maybe I am in the minority right enough. 

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2 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I totally agree regarding the SNPs position however they dont necessarily need to block a second vote, can they not simply abstain. The Unionists  have gone to great lengths letting everyone know 30% of SNP voters chose to leave the EU. Could the SNP not simply say it is mindful that a portion of their support want to leave and that they respect this. With regards to the other section of the SNP support, ie those that voted remain, what do they want more, an independent scotland or to be in the EU ?

 If it is the former then cant they  see a total cock up of Brexit is the closest we will get to a second indyref and that a people’s vote on Brexit could risk a future indyref ?  I voted Remain but I dont care either way about a peoples vote. 

Maybe I am in the minority right enough. 

Yes it is a bit of a quandary but first things first. They have to make a decision on People's Vote. I had heard they may abstain but like I say that may turn a big portion of pro-EU new members and potential future Yes voters away from them. Also another rumour is that Labour could permit a second indyref if the SNP back a People's Vote so that is an added incentive to back one.

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9 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Yes it is a bit of a quandary but first things first. They have to make a decision on People's Vote. I had heard they may abstain but like I say that may turn a big portion of pro-EU new members and potential future Yes voters away from them. Also another rumour is that Labour could permit a second indyref if the SNP back a People's Vote so that is an added incentive to back one.

Hmmm, I wouldnt trust Labour in any way, shape or form. 

But it is a quandry as you say. Thank fook all I have to decide is what to make for Sunday dinner 🙄

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Why are Lib Dems and Labour remainers encouraging the SNP to back a so-called People's Vote? Because the People's Vote is primarily about keeping the UK in Europe, rather than keeping Scotland in Europe. If they thought a People's Vote was likely to hasten independence i don't think they'd be so enthusiastic. 

Anyone who switched to pro-indy because they see indy as a route to retaining EU membership could as likely as not abandon the indy cause if they had their way via a People's Vote that kept the UK in EU.

That would suggest that SNP support for a People's Vote should be conditional on there being a clause that allows a different outcome for Scotland if Scotland once again votes differently from the rUK. That way the SNP would be placing the will of the Scottish electorate first (whether pro or anti Brexit), and make the unionist parties have something to offer/pay in return for support - that is, a risk of loosening the union. Otherwise it would be giving support to a UK-strengthening project for nothing.      

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12 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

True but again if they were to renege on that then its another black mark against a unionist party.

I dont think they would renege on it, that would be too stupid even for Labour. But I can guarantee they would be fully behind a second vote on indyref if it happened.

 Anyway, I had better go and put my culinary skills into practice. My Tdyer is on a course in the Midlands this week so I need to up the ante and produce something other than Morrisons best pizza, just incase Delia Smith is sniffing around Wolverhampton , luring him in with her braised beef. 

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1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

“The people’s vote”

or “another vote until we get the outcome we want”

Hmm I am not so sure.

Whenever we get results that are too close to call there is often another vote sometime down the line. Even hung parliaments have another election not long after. Even though Scotland voted No in 2014 that was never going to be the end of it when you have such a large body of people believing in the cause and the same could be said with Brexit. Even outwith politics look how many close boxing matches have ended up with rematches.

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22 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Hmm I am not so sure.

Whenever we get results that are too close to call there is often another vote sometime down the line. Even hung parliaments have another election not long after. Even though Scotland voted No in 2014 that was never going to be the end of it when you have such a large body of people believing in the cause and the same could be said with Brexit. Even outwith politics look how many close boxing matches have ended up with rematches.

How would you feel about a “people’s vote” driven by the unionist establishment and press after a tight yes vote?

Edited by ParisInAKilt
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4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Yes but as you say if independence was voted for with a similar winning margin to the margin in 2014 I could see yoons calling for a 'People's Vote'. It never happened in 2014 though.

Of course. Hypocrisy in politics isn’t limited to one side.

Whats driving another vote isn’t regular voters though. 

Edited by ParisInAKilt
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