The Brexit Thread

[AlfieMoon]

2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

You are forgetting a massive fact about Brexit. Scotlsnd did NOT vote for it yet its happening. The deed is done and even a cobbled together deal at the very last minute borned out of desperation is not going to smooth things over.

The fact that Scotland didn’t vote for it has played out well since 2016 but for me, that narrative doesn’t work as well when the big scary backdrop of Brexit and no-deal is removed and the situation is normalised. People are fickle and move on. 
 

Brexit didn’t move the Scottish polls significantly. COVID did - but in time that will pass as well. It becomes about whether the SNP can retain that support after those issues pass and people’s outrage has subsided. The major positive is that the age demographic will continue to shift in favour. 
 

A lot of it will be down to timing. Does Holyrood election fall at a good/bad time for whatever politics are getting played out around COVID? That will determine how much political capital there is for the next term and whether indyref is achievable.

[davy-hay]

2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

You are forgetting a massive fact about Brexit. Scotlsnd did NOT vote for it yet its happening. The deed is done and even a cobbled together deal at the very last minute borned out of desperation is not going to smooth things over.

It was never relevant that Scotland didn't vote for it.  We were told before the vote that it was going to be a UK count and boy that's what happened!

Moving goal posts after the vote was never going to be taken seriously.  

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, AlfieMoon said:

The fact that Scotland didn’t vote for it has played out well since 2016 but for me, that narrative doesn’t work as well when the big scary backdrop of Brexit and no-deal is removed and the situation is normalised. People are fickle and move on. 
 

Brexit didn’t move the Scottish polls significantly. COVID did - but in time that will pass as well. It becomes about whether the SNP can retain that support after those issues pass and people’s outrage has subsided. The major positive is that the age demographic will continue to shift in favour. 
 

A lot of it will be down to timing. Does Holyrood election fall at a good/bad time for whatever politics are getting played out around COVID? That will determine how much political capital there is for the next term and whether indyref is achievable.

You evidently have not followed the opinion polls. Polls has Yes ahead of No around two months BEFORE Covid struck. It was virtually level by the time the Tories won the 2019 General Election in December 2019 and a month later by January 2020 Yes had surged into the lead way before COVID was even known about. Now some nine months later Yes has consolidated its lead and even built on it. If you are claiming Brexit doesn't matter to Scots you are wrong. The final poll before the Brexit vote had No ahead by 48% to 41%. The first post-Brexit poll (way before we knew about the fiasco of getting a deal would entail) had changed dramatically with Yes now ahead by 48% to 41%.

Now if you can convince me as to how unionists turn this around I am all ears. After all in long extended spells of being behind in polls Yes has fought back to gain a lead. The No vote has yet to show that capability. Plus if you really feel COVID is a major player in all this then COVID is certainly not done with us yet and by the time the Scottish Elections come around it will still be majorly disrupting our lives.

[Caledonian Craig]

19 minutes ago, davy-hay said:

It was never relevant that Scotland didn't vote for it.  We were told before the vote that it was going to be a UK count and boy that's what happened!

Moving goal posts after the vote was never going to be taken seriously.  

And therein lies the major reason why this union is a sham.

It is referred to in the 1707 Act of Union as 'a union of equals' insisting it would give equal treatment to all countries that made it up. That being the case, and considering now, that political views are so diverse in countries like Scotland and Northern Ireland then the only fair way to conduct this poll was how the EU does business. Either every country votes for it or it doesn't get passed. Scotland and Northern Ireland's people voted in favour of remaining in the EU and the union of equals would say that would kill Brexit dead - it did not. Going on pure numbers voting for it meant it was always going to be a purely English bias on the vote - as in what England wants England gets. Certainly not a 'union of equals'.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Caledonian Craig

[Orraloon]

Looks like seed tattie growers could be one of the casualties of this deal. Could be the EU targeting Scottish Tories? Could be interesting for parts of the rural north east.

[exile]

49 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Looks like seed tattie growers could be one of the casualties of this deal. Could be the EU targeting Scottish Tories? Could be interesting for parts of the rural north east.

Where did this story come from?  I mean how did it come out, from which side? 🤔

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by exile

[Orraloon]

5 minutes ago, exile said:

Where did this story come from?  I mean how did it come out, from which side? 🤔

 

All part of the negotiating tactics. The French closing the ports for 48 hours seemed a wee bit convenient, timing wise, for me as well. I'm a fairly cynical person though. 

[Orraloon]

Farmers in Northern Ireland won't be allowed to buy Scottish seed potatoes. I smell potato wars on the horizon. I wonder if potato smuggling will become a thing?

[AlfieMoon]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

You evidently have not followed the opinion polls. Polls has Yes ahead of No around two months BEFORE Covid struck. It was virtually level by the time the Tories won the 2019 General Election in December 2019 and a month later by January 2020 Yes had surged into the lead way before COVID was even known about. Now some nine months later Yes has consolidated its lead and even built on it. If you are claiming Brexit doesn't matter to Scots you are wrong. The final poll before the Brexit vote had No ahead by 48% to 41%. The first post-Brexit poll (way before we knew about the fiasco of getting a deal would entail) had changed dramatically with Yes now ahead by 48% to 41%.

Now if you can convince me as to how unionists turn this around I am all ears. After all in long extended spells of being behind in polls Yes has fought back to gain a lead. The No vote has yet to show that capability. Plus if you really feel COVID is a major player in all this then COVID is certainly not done with us yet and by the time the Scottish Elections come around it will still be majorly disrupting our lives.

This is kinda my point. 
 

Yes jumped into the lead immediately after Brexit. It was a knee-jerk reaction not based on any tangible reality.  How long did that last? Not long. 
 

It’s been a long drip feed of fear of no deal Brexit and the mess of May and Bono’s reigns with Yes support again no doubt getting a boost from a majority Boris government within all that mix.  
 

All I’m saying is that there must be some level of fragility of that Yes support as Brexit normalises and peoples fear of change then becomes focussed on Indyref instead. 

Add in the prospect of a backlash against Boris/Tories at next GE and you’ll have a small %age of Scotland who are happy to look to a Labour UK Gov as protection from Tories without having the risk of Indy. 

All just my opinion of course. 

What I’m essentially saying is that it’s far from plain sailing for SNP and Indy. I think it would be foolish to think it is. 

 

[exile]

26 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

This is kinda my point. 
 

Yes jumped into the lead immediately after Brexit. It was a knee-jerk reaction not based on any tangible reality.  How long did that last? Not long. 
 

It’s been a long drip feed of fear of no deal Brexit and the mess of May and Bono’s reigns with Yes support again no doubt getting a boost from a majority Boris government within all that mix.  
 

All I’m saying is that there must be some level of fragility of that Yes support as Brexit normalises and peoples fear of change then becomes focussed on Indyref instead. 

Add in the prospect of a backlash against Boris/Tories at next GE and you’ll have a small %age of Scotland who are happy to look to a Labour UK Gov as protection from Tories without having the risk of Indy. 

All just my opinion of course. 

What I’m essentially saying is that it’s far from plain sailing for SNP and Indy. I think it would be foolish to think it is. 

 

Yes, I get your point. It's the "boiled frog" scenario. You don't reaalise you're shafted until it's too late.

With a deal, things don't immediatley nosedive, all the disadvantages and lost opportunities are not noticed, the Internal Market Bill is forgotten, until one day you realise they're going to privatise water, do a NHS or chicken deal with the US, bypassing Holyrood, and there's nothing Scotland can do about it.

Another thing is that the longer it goes on, the EU will be a distant memory, the new generation of voters won't know what they missed or how scotland was shafted.

So although the tide is in the direction of indy for the moment, just waiting around for the tide to change is not a good strategy.

[exile]

47 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

All part of the negotiating tactics. The French closing the ports for 48 hours seemed a wee bit convenient, timing wise, for me as well. I'm a fairly cynical person though. 

I was wondering though, was it leaked by the EU or British side? Did it originally come via friendly Unionist media (Douglas Fraser) or it is from EU? 

If I was going to be cynical I'd say what are the chances that this gives the opportunity for Douglas Ross to secure a last minute repreive for Scots tatties, and be the hero of the day? 😲

(I think it's unlikely but probably as likely as the theory D Ross resigned to make him more credible in Scotland)

[davy-hay]

2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

And therein lies the major reason why this union is a sham.

It is referred to in the 1707 Act of Union as 'a union of equals' insisting it would give equal treatment to all countries that made it up. That being the case, and considering now, that political views are so diverse in countries like Scotland and Northern Ireland then the only fair way to conduct this poll was how the EU does business. Either every country votes for it or it doesn't get passed. Scotland and Northern Ireland's people voted in favour of remaining in the EU and the union of equals would say that would kill Brexit dead - it did not. Going on pure numbers voting for it meant it was always going to be a purely English bias on the vote - as in what England wants England gets. Certainly not a 'union of equals'.

so if Wales was the only country to vote REMAINE (by a baw hair) the whole thing would be deemed a REMAINE for the brexit vote??  

That what you mean/want?

[exile]

As it stands, 'Defra said it will not be possible to export seed potatoes to the EU or Northern Ireland from 1 January'

It may be a small market but symbolically, the fact we can't even "export" to Northern Ireland (while NI can export to EU) sticks in the craw.

[vanderark14]

According to bojo, weve taken back control of our laws, waters and borders🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

[King Of Paisley]

36 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

According to bojo, weve taken back control of our laws, waters and borders🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

I'm sure the North East fishermen and the tottie farmers will concur.

This will finish the Tories up here next May

[vanderark14]

9 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

I'm sure the North East fishermen and the tottie farmers will concur.

This will finish the Tories up here next May

It wont finish them. I actually think the tories will tighten their grip on the north east. They will have gained something for fishing, not what they promised but enough to keep fishermen happy.

 

[phart]

From BBC

This cunt's thinking is all over the place

'The UK was dominated by German thinking'

Antony Payne is a retired software designer who voted for Brexit

 

Antony Payne voted for Brexit.

He said he had been "complaining bitterly" all day as there had been so much commentary before any announcement was actually made.

He had some concerns about the Erasmus exchange programme and said he and his son, who is a university lecturer, had had discussions about it and also any loss of research investment from the EU.

"But with foreign policy and defence, yes there is a huge disparity in regards to how mainland Europe works compared to what the UK is doing" he says.

He adds: "The UK was dominated by German thinking and that was about not getting into wars. But British activity has always involved helping out America."

When he was younger Mr Payne, who lives in Kirkcaldy in Scotland and frequently travels to Northern Ireland, voted to join the European Union.

But now, in his retirement, his decision to vote for Brexit was not about commercial concerns, but foreign policy. He believes Europe needs to be more like a federation, and the UK part of it.

What does "frequently travels to Northern Ireland" mean I wonder why is it relevant? He didn't like the thinking of "not getting into wars". Pretty wild shit.

[hampden_loon2878]

58 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

It wont finish them. I actually think the tories will tighten their grip on the north east. They will have gained something for fishing, not what they promised but enough to keep fishermen happy.

 

Dont agree there, moray will be snp, banff and buchan will only go tory due to a poor snp candidate 

[wheres the pies]

What we’ve lost 

[exile]

I think the tantalising question is if Labour & LibDem Remainers who normally support devolution, seeing the better deal given to Northern Ireland, and envious of their EU provileges, and also seeing the erosion of devolution to come, will take a fresh look at independence, to outweigh those doubling down in horror at Brexit and feeling indy would compound the problem.

[davy-hay]

This is wonderful news.. At Christmas too. 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Dont agree there, moray will be snp, banff and buchan will only go tory due to a poor snp candidate 

My Tory friend from the Broch has a thread on her FB page and they all seem pretty happy - although it looks like they're trying to make the best out of it.   They seem to think they'll be getting the lot in 5 1/2 years time when this deal is up for renegotiation.  I was tempted to jump in and point out that by then, Scotland will probably be independent and back in the EU, or at least negotiating the terms of entrance, but it's Christmas and I didn't want to spoil their holidays.

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

My Tory friend from the Broch has a thread on her FB page and they all seem pretty happy - although it looks like they're trying to make the best out of it.   They seem to think they'll be getting the lot in 5 1/2 years time when this deal is up for renegotiation.  I was tempted to jump in and point out that by then, Scotland will probably be independent and back in the EU, or at least negotiating the terms of entrance, but it's Christmas and I didn't want to spoil their holidays.

After the transitional period feck all extra will be coming back as its tied to market access,, must be one of the rank tory nutters we have up here 

[davy-hay]

So glad it's almost all over, what a brilliant Christmas present.  To think that on 2020 Christmas eve it all comes good. 

 

Even nigel farage says the brexit wars are over.. His dream comes true.   A man who has never stayed from his purpose and goal throughout the decades.  A principled individual. 

 

 

Merry Christmas all. 

 

 

[aaid]

17 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

After the transitional period feck all extra will be coming back as its tied to market access,, must be one of the rank tory nutters we have up here 

Ha ha, politics aside, she's cracking but she does have some very strange opinions.

Just looked again and someone who by the looks of things is actually a fisherman as opposed to a local tory councillor or whatever is describing it as a sell-out.