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The Brexit Thread


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13 minutes ago, aaid said:

There aren't greater numbers in the Nationalist parties.  The current situation is that there are more anti-Brexit MLAs in Stormont though that's why they don't want a simple majority vote.   

The current breakdown is (90 seats):

Unionist (DUP, UUP, TUV, Independent) 40
Nationalist (SF, SDLP) 39
Non-Alligned (Alliance, Green, PPP) 11

No but they fear greatly that happening is what I mean.

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Admittedly without knowing the every detail of the deal - this looks like as good as it's going to get and actually looks like a not bad deal. 

Broad agreement on establishing a Free Trade Agreement and as little a change as possible for Northern Ireland whilst maintaining no hard border.

The removal of the backstop by putting the power into the hands of the Stormont assembly provides a time limit but there's also the realisation that you would have to be bonkers to overturn it and the Unionists in NI simply don't have the numbers to do so. 

If this deal doesn't fly then nothing will. I think he'll get all the Brexiteers on board with this so it all boils down to whether he can somehow muster the numbers without the DUP. 

It looks like the next phase of this from Boris is to encourage EU leaders to say there will be no extension. I can't see them being the ones that want to take the fall for a no deal Brexit so don't think he'll have much joy with that. 

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6 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Admittedly without knowing the every detail of the deal - this looks like as good as it's going to get and actually looks like a not bad deal. 

Broad agreement on establishing a Free Trade Agreement and as little a change as possible for Northern Ireland whilst maintaining no hard border.

The removal of the backstop by putting the power into the hands of the Stormont assembly provides a time limit but there's also the realisation that you would have to be bonkers to overturn it and the Unionists in NI simply don't have the numbers to do so. 

If this deal doesn't fly then nothing will. I think he'll get all the Brexiteers on board with this so it all boils down to whether he can somehow muster the numbers without the DUP. 

It looks like the next phase of this from Boris is to encourage EU leaders to say there will be no extension. I can't see them being the ones that want to take the fall for a no deal Brexit so don't think he'll have much joy with that. 

I doubt it has a chance if the DUP do not back it.

However, if they do somehow get it voted through then the next GE could be a blood bath (so to speak). The Brexit Party are fuming at this deal seeing it as a kop out and I have no doubt they'd stand against Tories across the UK and further erode their vote share as a result.

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24 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No but they fear greatly that happening is what I mean.

What the DUP wanted was the Petiton of Concern mechanism to apply which would mean they had an effective veto.  The original proposals would be that NI would have to *opt-in* to remaining aligned to the EU, that would be the mechanism which would mean that the DUP would have an effective veto.  The other side of that coin would be if NI had to *opt-out* of being aligned to the EU would  give an effective veto to Sinn Fein.

Having a simple majority means there's no veto for either side but also there's no support within Stormont for opting out and that's regardless of whether or not there's a  Nationalist majority. 

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I doubt it has a chance if the DUP do not back it.

However, if they do somehow get it voted through then the next GE could be a blood bath (so to speak). The Brexit Party are fuming at this deal seeing it as a kop out and I have no doubt they'd stand against Tories across the UK and further erode their vote share as a result.

What on earth is there in the deal that they do not want?   From what I gather, UK is completely out ("got back control") except for customs arrangements through N.Ireland.

Seems to me they got it all except for absorption of the Republic back into the UK :wacko:

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6 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

What on earth is there in the deal that they do not want?   From what I gather, UK is completely out ("got back control") except for customs arrangements through N.Ireland.

Seems to me they got it all except for absorption of the Republic back into the UK :wacko:

According to Farage he claims this deal will mean the UK will open up the UK coast for EU fishing fleets and also have them having to respect EU laws so they aren't taking back control at all of things they could/should have. Those are Farage's words and opinion. 

We all know he craved a No Deal Brexit in any case.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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The Farage angle is interesting. If he really believes that this isn't brexit as he puts it, then I assume the previously suggested pact with the Tories would be abondoned and they'd stand against them in a GE.

Assuming that does happen, you would expect The Brexit party to eat into the Tory vote surely jeopordising Boris Johnsons hope for a majority at an election?

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9 minutes ago, Mox said:

The Farage angle is interesting. If he really believes that this isn't brexit as he puts it, then I assume the previously suggested pact with the Tories would be abondoned and they'd stand against them in a GE.

Assuming that does happen, you would expect The Brexit party to eat into the Tory vote surely jeopordising Boris Johnsons hope for a majority at an election?

Boris will be going around the country telling everybody that he has delivered Brexit and if you give him your vote, he will deliver all this other stuff as well (i.e. whatever is in his manifesto). Nige will have to explain to everybody exactly what it is he doesn't like about the Boris deal and tell us exactly what he thinks Brexit should mean. He hasn't had to do that before, it will be a hard sell.

If Boris gets this through parliament, he has played a blinder. How many Labour MPs will vote for it, knowing that there a general election just round the corner?

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22 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Boris will be going around the country telling everybody that he has delivered Brexit and if you give him your vote, he will deliver all this other stuff as well (i.e. whatever is in his manifesto). Nige will have to explain to everybody exactly what it is he doesn't like about the Boris deal and tell us exactly what he thinks Brexit should mean. He hasn't had to do that before, it will be a hard sell.

If Boris gets this through parliament, he has played a blinder. How many Labour MPs will vote for it, knowing that there a general election just round the corner?

No chance this going through. The DUP have now made their position quite clear.

Makes it all the more nauseating that May bribed this shower of fundamentalist bigots £1bn of taxpayers money to get them onside

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mox said:

The Farage angle is interesting. If he really believes that this isn't brexit as he puts it, then I assume the previously suggested pact with the Tories would be abondoned and they'd stand against them in a GE.

Assuming that does happen, you would expect The Brexit party to eat into the Tory vote surely jeopordising Boris Johnsons hope for a majority at an election?

The Boris deal and the way he has presented it totally marginalises Nigel and the Brexit Party. Best illustrated by the only thing they're complaining about today is threat to fisheries - which is actually part of the phase 2 / trade negotiation (always would have been) and nothing really to do with the Withdrawal Agreement.

Brexit Party criticism basically boils down to the fact they would never have been happy unless it was an idealogical stick two fingers up to the EU establishment, force a no deal and negotiate aggressively after the fact. That's what they see as victory. Despite the fact that they said we'd negotiate an easy deal and everything would be hunky dory. 

It's all nonsense. Every party just queuing up to knock the deal from their own wee individual party viewpoint. 

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1 hour ago, King Of Paisley said:

No chance this going through. The DUP have now made their position quite clear.

Makes it all the more nauseating that May bribed this shower of fundamentalist bigots £1bn of taxpayers money to get them onside

 

 

 

Another 5 or 10 Billion might do the trick?

Politicians often change their minds for one reason or another.

He might just get enough Labour MPs to help get him over the line?

Time will tell.

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#SurrenderDeal

It looks like a reheated version of one of May's earlier failed deals, but with some of the Tories' precious 'blood red lines' removed.

Will the Scots Tories really swallow this and put the desires and priorities of every other part of the UK ahead of Scotland? 

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This NI angle is extremely bad for Scotland, unless we at least get the same arrangement - NI effectively being in the EU will kill inward investment to Scotland stone dead.  If this gets through, the union is effectively over (and indeed the arrangements may in themselves breach the treaty of union apparently).  No deal leads down a similar path except that NI gets screwed as well.  If the SNP cock up this opportunity, they haven't been paying attention.  Continuation of the union hereafter can only be maintained by the sort of tactics that are seen in Spain with Catalunya.  No unionist party could defend the way Scotland has been treated - not that they won't try.

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B

1 hour ago, Alibi said:

This NI angle is extremely bad for Scotland, unless we at least get the same arrangement - NI effectively being in the EU will kill inward investment to Scotland stone dead.  If this gets through, the union is effectively over (and indeed the arrangements may in themselves breach the treaty of union apparently).  No deal leads down a similar path except that NI gets screwed as well.  If the SNP cock up this opportunity, they haven't been paying attention.  Continuation of the union hereafter can only be maintained by the sort of tactics that are seen in Spain with Catalunya.  No unionist party could defend the way Scotland has been treated - not that they won't try.

They do and they will. Not just the unionist parties, but the media coverage, which tends to airbrush out the 'treatment' of Scotland - nothing to see here.   

BBC reporting of the 'deal' -  

The UK coverage, they seem to be pushing the line it's some sort of achievement, that Boris has secured 'for the country', that many thought he'd never get. (i.e. indistinguishable from what the Tory propaganda is saying) Without pointing out, he only got it by caving in on things he swore he wouldn't do, and doing what May said no UK PM would do.

The Scottish coverage just baffling, they seem to be utter bystanders, never presenting a Scottish angle different from the UK one. Our reporter in Westminster, but asking questions of the future of 'the country' meaning the UK. Ignoring the large elephant in the room that half the country is wondering if this will lead to independence or not. They ask the Tory what he thinks as if he is just another British MP, there is no questioning of the fact the Ruth's former troops were mostly loyal remainers and proud Scot unionists who would allow no red lines in the Irish sea, but they don't point out they capitulated and don't ask them about the effect on their #PreciousUnion.  

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1 hour ago, Rohan said:

What exactly is the deal?

The BBC has a summary here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50083026

The deal includes a provision for Northern Ireland to get to vote to consent to the arrangement every four years. 

The explanation does not mention Scotland's relationship to any of this, we are just part of the 'rest of the UK'  

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13 hours ago, exile said:

 

The Scottish coverage just baffling, they seem to be utter bystanders, never presenting a Scottish angle different from the UK one. Our reporter in Westminster, but asking questions of the future of 'the country' meaning the UK. Ignoring the large elephant in the room that half the country is wondering if this will lead to independence or not. They ask the Tory what he thinks as if he is just another British MP, there is no questioning of the fact the Ruth's former troops were mostly loyal remainers and proud Scot unionists who would allow no red lines in the Irish sea, but they don't point out they capitulated and don't ask them about the effect on their #PreciousUnion.  

Oh, you'd have loved the coverage of this on BBC Scotland's 'The Nine' last night. It was almost exactly as you describe above.

They sent Martin Giesler over to interview Laura Kuensberg live from Brussels. :lol:

It's basically UK centric news, but read out in a Scottish accent.

 

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8 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Oh, you'd have loved the coverage of this on BBC Scotland's 'The Nine' last night. It was almost exactly as you describe above.

They sent Martin Giesler over to interview Laura Kuensberg live from Brussels. :lol:

It's basically UK centric news, but read out in a Scottish accent.

 

Can't claim to be clairvoyant, as that's mostly what i was reacting to!   :lol:

But you are right, BBC Scotland: British news with a Scottish accent

Rather than the view from the one country out of 4 that is about to be 'shafted'

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