The Brexit Thread

[Toepoke]

2 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

YouGov are at the pollster that gives independence the lowest polling figures, whilst giving the right their best figures.

Did they not put Yes in the lead in 2014?

Make you wonder how much of an arse of things the UK government need to make before people start to seriously consider independence... 

 

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Did they not put Yes in the lead in 2014?

Make you wonder how much of an arse of things the UK government need to make before people start to seriously consider independence... 

 

To me it is how sturgeon has treated yes/brexit supporters, had she been a bit more subtle we would be 55% yes IMHO. Its a tough one to balance i know.

 

On a side note i hope she trades carefully with this “climate emergency” and the oil industry in the north east. As an oil industry worker her grandstanding on this subject is starting to make me uneasy. She hasnt the powers to do anything about the oul industry so why put your head above the parapet 

[aaid]

42 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

To me it is how sturgeon has treated yes/brexit supporters, had she been a bit more subtle we would be 55% yes IMHO. Its a tough one to balance i know.

 

On a side note i hope she trades carefully with this “climate emergency” and the oil industry in the north east. As an oil industry worker her grandstanding on this subject is starting to make me uneasy. She hasnt the powers to do anything about the oul industry so why put your head above the parapet 

A couple of things.  Firstly on climate change, outwith the oil industry I doubt you'll find much support in the country for taking every last barrel of oil out of the North Sea.  However, if you look at what NS was saying yesterday, she's a lot more nuanced on this and is saying that while there is a need to reduce emissions and to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, you can't do that completely until the alternatives are in place.  

Secondly, and we've been through this before.   Post 2016 you break the country into four categories - Yes/Remain, No/Leave, Yes/Leave, No/Remain.  In trying to grow the support for independence you can forget about the first two as they are either already on board or will never be on board and it's a waste of time trying to engage with them.

That gives you the No/Remain and Yes/Leave groups.   Given that there were far more people in the first group, at least 2-1, then it makes sense to concentrate on the No/Remain side and that means not compromising on support for the EU - which after all has been the party's policy for decades - at the risk of alienating the Yes/Leave group.  You only need to look at Labour in the UK to see how successful trying to face both ways on Brexit has been.

That strategy has proven to be successful, the big Ashcroft poll showed that with - from memory - 100,000 Yes/Leave saying they'd now vote No but around 300,000 Remain voters going the other way.  

[Ally Bongo]

Seen that wankpiece Stephen Kinnock on BBC Breakfast 

Once again totally ignoring the Scottish vote but calling for compromise - that being a soft brexit 

If it comes back to Parliament i think it will be accepted and Independence can be flushed right down the pan 

If we stay in some form of CU & SM then the material change in circumstances are dubious and/or people will not be swayed to vote for Independence 

[Grim Jim]

29 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Seen that wankpiece Stephen Kinnock on BBC Breakfast 

Once again totally ignoring the Scottish vote but calling for compromise - that being a soft brexit 

If it comes back to Parliament i think it will be accepted and Independence can be flushed right down the pan 

If we stay in some form of CU & SM then the material change in circumstances are dubious and/or people will not be swayed to vote for Independence 

On the other hand, if shooting for independence after a no deal, there will be arguments against it due to a "hard border" between Scotland (EU) and rUK.

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

On the other hand, if shooting for independence after a no deal, there will be arguments against it due to a "hard border" between Scotland (EU) and rUK.

Nail on head.  A No Deal Brexit probably makes it harder to actually win an independence referendum  

 

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

 If it comes back to Parliament i think it will be accepted and Independence can be flushed right down the pan 

If we stay in some form of CU & SM then the material change in circumstances are dubious and/or people will not be swayed to vote for Independence 

Tbh I'd rather not become poorer or risk losing my job even if it means waiting another decade or so for an independence vote.

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Nail on head.  A No Deal Brexit probably makes it harder to actually win an independence referendum  

 

Which one of the main reasons why the SNP are in such a difficult position and why timing is so important.

[hampden_loon2878]

3 hours ago, aaid said:

A couple of things.  Firstly on climate change, outwith the oil industry I doubt you'll find much support in the country for taking every last barrel of oil out of the North Sea.  However, if you look at what NS was saying yesterday, she's a lot more nuanced on this and is saying that while there is a need to reduce emissions and to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, you can't do that completely until the alternatives are in place.  

Secondly, and we've been through this before.   Post 2016 you break the country into four categories - Yes/Remain, No/Leave, Yes/Leave, No/Remain.  In trying to grow the support for independence you can forget about the first two as they are either already on board or will never be on board and it's a waste of time trying to engage with them.

That gives you the No/Remain and Yes/Leave groups.   Given that there were far more people in the first group, at least 2-1, then it makes sense to concentrate on the No/Remain side and that means not compromising on support for the EU - which after all has been the party's policy for decades - at the risk of alienating the Yes/Leave group.  You only need to look at Labour in the UK to see how successful trying to face both ways on Brexit has been.

That strategy has proven to be successful, the big Ashcroft poll showed that with - from memory - 100,000 Yes/Leave saying they'd now vote No but around 300,000 Remain voters going the other way.  

Yes i agree with some of what your saying and time will tell if she has handled brexit correctly, whether we get indy rests with her and her political IQ,, i hope to god she plays a blinder.

 

regarding north sea oil she really needs to be very very careful as it effect ALL the northeast, caithness, Stornaway these place rely massively on employment from the rigs 

[thplinth]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Which one of the main reasons why the SNP are in such a difficult position and why timing is so important.

Timing is important and the only time you should be calling for indyref2 is when the polls are showing clear support for YES over  significant time. All this talk about 2020 is pie in the sky bollocks until something changes there. It is criminally negligent to call for indyref2 without it.  People are going to talk themselves into doing something stupid and then our chances will be over. It is really very simple, you go for indyref2 when you have the support to win it. You don't bank on a majority materializing over the campaign. 

What is the rush anyway? Let BoJo and BREXIT unfold and people feel the consequences... slowly slowly catchy monkey.

[ParisInAKilt]

18 hours ago, thplinth said:

People in Scotland have the SNP as an alt-vote. And they have been taking it.

Who is the alt-vote down south?

England is a country desperately seeking their own version of the SNP.

UKIP, BREXIT party...Sooner or later they are going to find it and it is going to stick.

The English are not afraid of being nationalist like the Scotsare. When they go it will be for real. We are utter pussy wankers in comparison. Beaten down to fuck.

Nick Griffin (I know) said that he was approached for investment in the BNP but was told 2 things, he must only criticise Muslim’s and Islam and not Israel and couldn’t question the money supply. 

Every political party in the UK is corrupted, including the SNP. 

[aaid]

22 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

 

Every political party in the UK is corrupted, including the SNP. 

You going to back that up with any actual evidence?   I won't hold my breath.

[ParisInAKilt]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

You going to back that up with any actual evidence?   I won't hold my breath.

Like a Westminster document admitting it? 

Happy to provide some documentaries if you’d watch them. 

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Like a Westminster document admitting it? 

Happy to provide some documentaries if you’d watch them. 

Actual evidence, not "documentaries"

[ParisInAKilt]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Actual evidence, not "documentaries"

What would actual evidence look like for you?

[scotlad]

10 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

YouGov - Westminster VI

• SNP - 43% (51 seats; +16 on 2017)
• Con - 20% (3 seats; -10)
• Lab - 15% (1 seat; -6)
• Lib - 12% (4 seats; N/C)
• Brx - 6%
• Grn - 4%

Holyrood Constituency VI

• SNP - 45% (64 seats; +1 on 2016)
• Con - 23% (25 seats; -6)
• Lab - 13% (12 seats; -12)
• Lib - 12% (15 seats; +10)
• Brx - 3% (3 seats; +3)
• Grn - 2% (10 seats; +4)
• Oth - 6%

Independence VI

• Yes - 49%
• No - 51%

Referendum in next five years?

• Yes - 45%
• No - 44%

Approval Ratings

• Sturgeon - Well 47%; Badly 42%
• Johnson - Well 24%; Badly 58%
• Corbyn - Well 13%; Badly 71%
• Leonard - Well 7%; Badly 40%

YouGov are at the pollster that gives independence the lowest polling figures, whilst giving the right their best figures.

That poll looks terrible for Labour: reduced to just one Westminster seat and virtually neck and neck with the Lib Dems in Holyrood.

It makes me wonder how bad it has to get for them before they seriously consider a change of tack.

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

What would actual evidence look like for you?

Sources, verifiable facts, corroboration, you know evidence type-stuff 

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, scotlad said:

That poll looks terrible for Labour: reduced to just one Westminster seat and virtually neck and neck with the Lib Dems in Holyrood.

It makes me wonder how bad it has to get for them before they seriously consider a change of tack.

They'll continue to believe that the electorate have got it wrong and one day they'll realise the errors of their ways  and will crawl back, supine and repentant. 

[ParisInAKilt]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Sources, verifiable facts, corroboration, you know evidence type-stuff 

I doubt I’d have sources etc that you’d think is credible. 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

I doubt I’d have sources etc that you’d think is credible. 

We all share your doubts.

[ParisInAKilt]

18 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

We all share your doubts.

There he is

[thplinth]

1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

There he is

Why does he have such a bee in his bonnet about you (aaid i mean... but ok lets include orraloon, lol)? I missed the falling out (I assume). Link?

Edited September 4, 2019 by thplinth

[Orraloon]

2 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Why does he have such a bee in his bonnet about you? I missed the falling out (I assume). Link?

I've not fallen out with anybody.

[thplinth]

2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I've not fallen out with anybody.

That is true. You are switzerloon.

[Clyde1998]

6 hours ago, scotlad said:

That poll looks terrible for Labour: reduced to just one Westminster seat and virtually neck and neck with the Lib Dems in Holyrood.

It makes me wonder how bad it has to get for them before they seriously consider a change of tack.

It makes you wonder what purpose Labour actually has in Scotland. The regional figures were SNP 39%; Con 20%; Lib 13%; Lab 11%; Grn 8%; Oth 9%.