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Labour's winning percentage was the lowest ever for a by-election according to John Curtice there.

Opinion seems to be England is currently experiencing 4 party politics.  We're a long way from the next General Election though.

 

Edited by Toepoke
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I'd be worried if I was labour looking at this result. They got hammered nearly as bad as the tories despite retaining the seat. That is a shocking performance considering how bad the tory government has been these last few years. They should be in the gain column versus last time but they got smashed. Liberals bounce back but that is just people who cant vote for either of the 'big three' anymore, bit of a parked vote. Lessons will be learned and I can see a lot of tories making the calculation about whether the tory candidate or the BREXIT one is most likely the strongest in any given contest and then get behind that one. Or risk letting labour in. Cant remember ever seeing anything like this in English politics. The SDLP shite was tame in comparison. Interesting times ahead.

edit: I say English but perhaps BREXIT will run in Scotland as well. That would be also interesting...

Edited by thplinth
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28 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Labour's winning percentage was the lowest ever for a by-election according to John Curtice there.

Opinion seems to be England is currently experiencing 4 party politics.  We're a long way from the next General Election though.

 

How long do you reckon?

If the BREXIT party exist at the next GE presumably it will be because they are unhappy with whatever BREXIT deal was done. If the next GE then becomes a de facto second referendum on hard BREXIT then it would be Farage versus all the other parties combined. But he would get the concentrated LEAVE vote and they would share the REMAIN votes. He wont get them all but if the vote does polarize they could appeal to more than half the electorate on voting day.

What kind of majority would that result in? With FPTP I am thinking it could be huge.

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1 hour ago, thplinth said:

BREXIT party loses by a ball hair at first attempt(?) in by election.

I'd say the prospect of Farage as PM has moved form joke to distinct possibility. Then we really are crazy town.

Man crush on farage 

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I couldn’t sleep last night, and had the BBC on tv, kinda watched the results show. 

Ok, Labour won, but in reality it looked to me like it was a result for pro Brexit parties. Tories and Brexit between them had multiples more than Lib Dems and The Greens, who knows where Labour are these days. 

Incidentally, I thought that the std of candidates up here was poor, the Labour winner was terrible, her interview with Andrew Neill was car crash TV. 

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1 hour ago, thplinth said:

BREXIT party loses by a ball hair at first attempt(?) in by election.

I'd say the prospect of Farage as PM has moved form joke to distinct possibility. Then we really are crazy town.

Cmon. Its not going to happen. They will never be in power, never.

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A bit of context around last night's Peterborough by-election.

Firstly, the turnout was very low - 48.4% and down on the 67.5% in the 2017 GE.    Traditionally a low turnout tends to suit insurgent parties - as they are more motivated to vote - and also tends to go against Labour.

While Nigel Farage tries to pretend the Brexit Party dropped out of the sky unformed two months ago, we know that's bollocks and they're just a reincarnation of UKIP.

There was no UKIP candidate in 2017 but there was in 2015 (turnout 64.9%)

At that election the UKIP candidate got 15.9% of the vote and was in third place.   However on a higher turnout, that equated to 7485 votes.  

Last night the Brexit Party only got slightly less that 2500 votes more than that so it'#s not exactly the great breakthrough that is being touted.

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42 minutes ago, kumnio said:

The Tories won’t call an election, they would get wiped out. This government will run the full term, there can’t be any alternatives to that. 

I've lost track now, when is the next general election due?

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50 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Farage was suggesting this the other week. 

Would be an absolute gift to the SNP...

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17667245.brexit-mep-says-party-will-stand-for-holyrood/

 

As you say, that would be great news to the SNP, it would definitely split the right wing OAP mentalist vote, the Tories would take a beating, that would be outstanding. 

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5 hours ago, thplinth said:

How long do you reckon?

If the BREXIT party exist at the next GE presumably it will be because they are unhappy with whatever BREXIT deal was done. If the next GE then becomes a de facto second referendum on hard BREXIT then it would be Farage versus all the other parties combined. But he would get the concentrated LEAVE vote and they would share the REMAIN votes. He wont get them all but if the vote does polarize they could appeal to more than half the electorate on voting day.

What kind of majority would that result in? With FPTP I am thinking it could be huge.

On the other hand, the Tories now know that they have to deliver a NO DEAL brexit before the next election otherwise they will get wiped out. NO DEAL is the easiest brexit for them to deliver. They just need to sit back and do nothing and NO DEAL happens at the end of October. Anything else requires negotiations with parliament and possibly the EU. Parliament has voted against NO DEAL, but is there anything parliament can do if the government just sit back and let NO DEAL happen? I'm not sure?

Will we see Martial Law in the UK? Which side would the military take, Government or Parliament? I wonder which side the Queen would be on?

 

 

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5 hours ago, thplinth said:

How long do you reckon?

Missed this question earlier. As others have said I can't see another GE before 2022. Too many MPs are now in marginal seats for them to vote for an early election. 

 

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Missed this question earlier. As others have said I can't see another GE before 2022. Too many MPs are now in marginal seats for them to vote for an early election. 

 

I think the only thing that could change that would be a No Deal, the immediate fallout from that could see a successful vote of no confidence.

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4 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Missed this question earlier. As others have said I can't see another GE before 2022. Too many MPs are now in marginal seats for them to vote for an early election. 

You have a convincing argument but I cant see it it. Once BREXIT gets dealt (almost in any form) I think the pressure for a GE will become slowly insurmountable (1 year max if that).

We will all need a massive 'straightener' post BREXIT, a fucking massive one...

You  would be a brave man to predict how that will go and a lot will depend on the form of BREXIT 'agreed'.

But man... even now it is obvious there are tectonic style political forces building up that really threaten to make this wild as fuck just not now but long after. I dont know about you but I am even getting a bit pished off.

 

Edited by thplinth
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The Brexit party and a far right Tory party is a coalition waiting to happen. Rees Mogg is pals with Farage and his sister is part of the Brexit party. I think they're basically going to pick up Tory and Labour protest votes and effectively stop Labour getting into power. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these far right Tory toffs are funding the Brexit party.

Labour SHOULD be cleaning up (like Blair did in 1997) such was the resentment towards the Tories after years of them being in power but Corbyn is so f'ing useless and Labour are in as much disarray as the Tories. British politics is pretty broken at the minute.

Edited by Saint4805
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Brexit Party is UKIP2. Both set up with that one thing in mind. When it comes to where it matters - General Elections - the voters will return to their normal vote ie Tories or Labour as they are died in the wool and can see that Brexit have no policies on anything other that Brexit. I'll be gobsmacked if they even win more than 5 seats at the next GE or whether they will even still exist as a functioning party as by 2022 Brexit will have been completed so what will their purpose then be?

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