The Brexit Thread

[ParisInAKilt]

17 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Thinking about it now I can see the logic of pressing now. The Westminster government having to fight on two fronts - Brexit and Scottish Independence will leave them thin on the ground and prioritising. Obviously, indyref2 won't be granted until Brexit is sorted but if you don't ask you don't get.

Won’t be thin on the ground when the vast majority of the media, banking and business likely backs another no vote. 

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Won’t be thin on the ground when the vast majority of the media, banking and business likely backs another no vote. 

Yes but with that mindset we would never go for a second indyref as those unionist sectors will always rally against Yes.

[Hertsscot]

Lib Dem voters in Scotland, what is the matter with them?  if they have any progressive aspirations left, surely they know they're not going to be realized as England lurches further to the right and takes the rest of the UK with them.  Lib Dem gains in England are not because any body actually likes them or has forgotten what they did when they got into bed with the Tories but it was just best of a very bad bunch.  In Scotland people have a much better choice!

[Bonny79]

A great victory for the brexit party. 

[stocky]

12 minutes ago, Bonny79 said:

A great victory for the brexit party. 

one out of 6 is not a victory.. .

although in the land of Fake news.. who knows....

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by stocky

[Jim Beem]

10 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

20% of Wales population are English - nae surprise

And the other 80% are weirdos 

[Bonny79]

15 minutes ago, stocky said:

one out of 6 is not a victory.. .

although in the land of Fake news.. who knows....

 

 

In the uk

[dipped flake]

3 minutes ago, Bonny79 said:

In the uk

Who cares?? SNP are the only show in town where it matters

[exile]

9 hours ago, kumnio said:

Looks very good.

That's striking.

Heard Nicky Campbell banging on and on about a 'disunited kingdom' this morning but you would not guess this map existed. 

[Orraloon]

This result is very, very good for the SNP.

But,........... we should be very careful that we don't get too carried away. Less than half the people voted in this election than did the Indy ref. Unless we get a good idea as to why over 60% of registered voters didn't vote, then we shouldn't project too much on to how another indy ref would go. Maybe loads of unionist voters decided to abstain instead of giving their vote to a protest party? Maybe the SNP were much better at getting the vote out than they were in 2017, which would also be very good news, if correct?

We are no nearer to independence today than we were this time last week. The result of this EU election from a Scottish perspective, will be forgotten very quickly. The result might have much bigger implications south of the border though?

[aaid]

Something that @hampden_loon2878might be interested in and will no doubt add to his happiness at Moray and Aberdeenshire both being won by the SNP last night.

It's clear that following the EU referendum in 2016 electoral support for the Indy supporting parties took a hit, probably as a result of being too pro-EU and peeling off some previous supporters - either going to the Tories or more not voting at all.

Anyway, it looks like they've recovered that position on the basis of last night's results.

The 2016 Holyrood election was just a few weeks before the EU referendum and so that represents a good baseline.   In the list portion of that - which gives you the best view as all parties stand in the list - the SNP vote was 41.7%, the Greens 6.6% - giving a total "Indy" vote of 48.3%

The next electoral test was the 2017 Council elections in May.   In that the support for Indy parties fell to 36.3% (32.3% SNP/4.1% Green).

Following that was the 2017 UK General Election where the SNP vote was 37% - of course the Greens weren't relevant in that election and so that's pretty consistent with the Council elections.

The EU elections shows pro-Indy being 46.2% (SNP 37.9%/Greens 8.3%) almost getting back to the 2016 HR level.

So it looks - on the surface that the SNP and Greens have recovered.   The other interesting thing is that while electoral support for pro-Indy parties dipped, the support for Indy in polls hasn't dropped below 2014 levels which suggests that while people didn't vote for Indy parties they'd still vote for Indy.

You said that the SNP would need to get the Brexit supporting people back on board, it looks like they've either done that or have peeled off enough remainers from the Unionist parties to make up for them.

[Bonny79]

General election time next.   Farrage for pm. 

[Orraloon]

[Orraloon]

If I was living in England I might be tempted to vote for Farage.

[TDYER63]

16 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

This result is very, very good for the SNP.

But,........... we should be very careful that we don't get too carried away. Less than half the people voted in this election than did the Indy ref. Unless we get a good idea as to why over 60% of registered voters didn't vote, then we shouldn't project too much on to how another indy ref would go. Maybe loads of unionist voters decided to abstain instead of giving their vote to a protest party? Maybe the SNP were much better at getting the vote out than they were in 2017, which would also be very good news, if correct?

We are no nearer to independence today than we were this time last week. The result of this EU election from a Scottish perspective, will be forgotten very quickly. The result might have much bigger implications south of the border though?

I agree with this. The results are encouraging but I wouldn't get too carried away with EU election results and based on the turnout. I even forget the results were out yesterday such was the excitement in Paisley.,

[hampden_loon2878]

9 minutes ago, aaid said:

Something that @hampden_loon2878might be interested in and will no doubt add to his happiness at Moray and Aberdeenshire both being won by the SNP last night.

It's clear that following the EU referendum in 2016 electoral support for the Indy supporting parties took a hit, probably as a result of being too pro-EU and peeling off some previous supporters - either going to the Tories or more not voting at all.

Anyway, it looks like they've recovered that position on the basis of last night's results.

The 2016 Holyrood election was just a few weeks before the EU referendum and so that represents a good baseline.   In the list portion of that - which gives you the best view as all parties stand in the list - the SNP vote was 41.7%, the Greens 6.6% - giving a total "Indy" vote of 48.3%

The next electoral test was the 2017 Council elections in May.   In that the support for Indy parties fell to 36.3% (32.3% SNP/4.1% Green).

Following that was the 2017 UK General Election where the SNP vote was 37% - of course the Greens weren't relevant in that election and so that's pretty consistent with the Council elections.

The EU elections shows pro-Indy being 46.2% (SNP 37.9%/Greens 8.3%) almost getting back to the 2016 HR level.

So it looks - on the surface that the SNP and Greens have recovered.   The other interesting thing is that while electoral support for pro-Indy parties dipped, the support for Indy in polls hasn't dropped below 2014 levels which suggests that while people didn't vote for Indy parties they'd still vote for Indy.

You said that the SNP would need to get the Brexit supporting people back on board, it looks like they've either done that or have peeled off enough remainers from the Unionist parties to make up for them.

i would agree with that, we will still need brexit fiendly folk back onboard, my father in law and mother in law both voted brexit party however would vote indy as long as its not solely based on the EU, those are the type of voters who we will need onboard

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If I was living in England I might be tempted to vote for Farage.

I had the option to vote for Farage but didn't take it - I voted for one of the Alexandra Phillipses instead.

[exile]

27 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

This result is very, very good for the SNP.

But,........... we should be very careful that we don't get too carried away. Less than half the people voted in this election than did the Indy ref. Unless we get a good idea as to why over 60% of registered voters didn't vote, then we shouldn't project too much on to how another indy ref would go. Maybe loads of unionist voters decided to abstain instead of giving their vote to a protest party? Maybe the SNP were much better at getting the vote out than they were in 2017, which would also be very good news, if correct?

We are no nearer to independence today than we were this time last week. The result of this EU election from a Scottish perspective, will be forgotten very quickly. The result might have much bigger implications south of the border though?

I think the last point could affect the preceding ones - in fact all the twists and turns will have an effect. Today feels much different from 2017. Then, May had just triggered article 50, it looked like Brexit was safely on track and Tories in ascendancy. Now look at the ruins. The Euros may not count for much but it has surely blown the biggest hole in 2 party politics, people voting lib dem and green for the first time,  Labour must surely be jittery about a General Election and Brexit party could do damage. I think this is a much more of a climate to argue to get out of here, than if Brexit had been safely delivered already, or if there had been no Euros. 

I am not sure but I sense commentators down south, where before they were just naturally unthinkingly unionist in outlook and maybe saw independence as an unwelcome threat, now see much more the case for independence as a legitimate aspiration. Especially when you see that map. 

Interesting and significant that the Tory vote held up, firmer than in England, but the hollowing out of Labour  (even if "just" over the Euros) could mean they need to rethink? 

Daily Record saying "eventually Scots are going to be forced to pick which one they want. Is it Nicola Sturgeon’s pro-EU Scottish nationalism or the isolationist Britishness that seems to have captured the imagination of large swathes of England?"

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-rewarded-political-courage-over-16207170

Edited May 27, 2019 by exile

[TDYER63]

4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If I was living in England I might be tempted to vote for Farage.

If I was living in England I would be buying a house in Outer Mongolia.

[aaid]

33 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

This result is very, very good for the SNP.

But,........... we should be very careful that we don't get too carried away. Less than half the people voted in this election than did the Indy ref. Unless we get a good idea as to why over 60% of registered voters didn't vote, then we shouldn't project too much on to how another indy ref would go. Maybe loads of unionist voters decided to abstain instead of giving their vote to a protest party? Maybe the SNP were much better at getting the vote out than they were in 2017, which would also be very good news, if correct?

We are no nearer to independence today than we were this time last week. The result of this EU election from a Scottish perspective, will be forgotten very quickly. The result might have much bigger implications south of the border though?

That's very true.  

On the subject of turnout though, EU elections generally have low turnout - across the EU, not just the UK - and I guess there will be some form of analysis on the demgraphics of the voters. 

However, we know that - in general - older people are most likely to vote and that is a group that is less well disposed to Indy.   Unless there's something very unusual going on under the covers, I wouldn't read too much into the low turnout.

[Orraloon]

3 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's very true.  

On the subject of turnout though, EU elections generally have low turnout - across the EU, not just the UK - and I guess there will be some form of analysis on the demgraphics of the voters. 

However, we know that - in general - older people are most likely to vote and that is a group that is less well disposed to Indy.   Unless there's something very unusual going on under the covers, I wouldn't read too much into the low turnout.

I know that is true in general but is it also true of EU elections? I don't know the answer to that. What casts doubt in my mind is that, in my experience, younger folk seem to be more interested in the EU than older folk. 

 

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I know that is true in general but is it also true of EU elections? I don't know the answer to that. What casts doubt in my mind is that, in my experience, younger folk seem to be more interested in the EU than older folk. 

 

Europe-wide survey but it seems to hold up in EU elections as well.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/eurobarometre/2014/post/post_ee2014_sociodemographic_annex_en.pdf

 

[Ally Bongo]

53 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

This result is very, very good for the SNP.

But,........... we should be very careful that we don't get too carried away. Less than half the people voted in this election than did the Indy ref. Unless we get a good idea as to why over 60% of registered voters didn't vote, then we shouldn't project too much on to how another indy ref would go. Maybe loads of unionist voters decided to abstain instead of giving their vote to a protest party? Maybe the SNP were much better at getting the vote out than they were in 2017, which would also be very good news, if correct?

We are no nearer to independence today than we were this time last week. The result of this EU election from a Scottish perspective, will be forgotten very quickly. The result might have much bigger implications south of the border though?

It's already being dismissed by the MSM as Scotland voted to remain but again as it's a UK wide vote it doesnt matter a fuck AND we dont want a second Independence referendum

[Orraloon]

9 minutes ago, aaid said:

Europe-wide survey but it seems to hold up in EU elections as well.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/eurobarometre/2014/post/post_ee2014_sociodemographic_annex_en.pdf

 

Aye, that is a good sign then. Thanks 

[Grim Jim]