The Brexit Thread

[Redz]

29 minutes ago, bonny78 said:

How?  Plenty Scots still want brexit.   

How do you know they are Scottish? 

[stocky]

3 hours ago, bonny78 said:

What's the point.  Brexit party is going to win. 

Not in our country they wont, 

[hampden_loon2878]

9 minutes ago, Redz said:

How do you know they are Scottish? 

Yes many do, more than many on here would be comfortable with

[bonny78]

6 minutes ago, stocky said:

Not in our country they wont, 

it's a uk vote

[Ally Bongo]

42 minutes ago, bonny78 said:

How?  Plenty Scots still want brexit.   

Because if you lived here and/or saw the polls you would know the result in Scotland will be different from the RUK and as such make a distinction rather than simply saying the Brexit Party will win - which is something you would say if you lived in England 

[bonny78]

5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Yes many do, more than many on here would be comfortable with

because the people on here are xenophobic??

[hampden_loon2878]

8 minutes ago, bonny78 said:

because the people on here are xenophobic??

No I would say the opposite on this board, i will add that the most xenophobic folk i know are brexiters(small minority) which would make me consider my vote if there were another EU referendum  

[aaid]

14 minutes ago, bonny78 said:

because the people on here are xenophobic??

You got anything to back that up with or is that just another throwaway line with no basis in truth. 

[Redz]

21 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Yes many do, more than many on here would be comfortable with

I don't doubt it, that's not why I asked though.

EG  52% of 'Scots' voted YES in 2014

He's either simply not done his research or, more likely, attempting (very badly) to make it appear something it most definitely is not

[thplinth]

13 hours ago, Dave78 said:

The rUK will have already lost all that, as Scotland would no longer be paying into HM treasury, so i don't see what that has to do with the rUK's willingness to wage economic war on a former vassal which they've always considered 'their own' (see the Tory attitude towards Ireland throughout the Brexit process for evidence of that).

Thplinth is basically right i think. And i think the SNP high-command know it too, which is why they compromised on their strictly anti-Brexit position and voted for a form of Brexit which kept the UK in the Single Market during the indicative votes. They know by keeping the UK in the Single Market, they eliminate this issue.

Looking at the numbers more rUK is Scotlands biggest trading partner by quite some distance. Should Scotland ever vote YES the number one priority will be securing a mutually acceptable trade deal with rUK. After that our second and much smaller trading partner is the rest of the world excluding the EU. The EU is the third largest trading partner. So joining the EU with rUK then post BREXIT would or could be an incredibly dangerous step and put us in direct conflict with our largest trading partner by far. That could be catastrophic economically speaking for Scotland. Who can predict how the EU and the rUK are going to get on when BREXIT finally happens... and I think it will be a hard BREXIT... we join the EU it could be cutting of our economic noses to spite our faces on a scale that is terrifying. The EU is small potatoes compared to rUK for Scotalnd's economy.

[stocky]

57 minutes ago, bonny78 said:

it's a uk vote

Its a E.U. Vote.... No idea what point you are making

[Alibi]

22 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Looking at the numbers more rUK is Scotlands biggest trading partner by quite some distance. Should Scotland ever vote YES the number one priority will be securing a mutually acceptable trade deal with rUK. After that our second and much smaller trading partner is the rest of the world excluding the EU. The EU is the third largest trading partner. So joining the EU with rUK then post BREXIT would or could be an incredibly dangerous step and put us in direct conflict with our largest trading partner by far. That could be catastrophic economically speaking for Scotland. Who can predict how the EU and the rUK are going to get on when BREXIT finally happens... and I think it will be a hard BREXIT... we join the EU it could be cutting of our economic noses to spite our faces on a scale that is terrifying. The EU is small potatoes compared to rUK for Scotalnd's economy.

Why do we need to measure everything against a benchmark set by England or the rUK?  The rUK will be desperate to trade with us (and anyone else) after Brexit and if they tried to put up punitive barriers it would be shooting themselves in the foot.  Most of what they produce we can get elsewhere, and stuff we produce they want or need - electricity, oil, water, whisky, the list is long.  If we are in the EU then they must trade on the same terms as with the rest of the EU; EFTA I assume gives a similar outcome.

To suggest that we must meekly accept what England wants is craven forelock-tugging.

[hampden_loon2878]

32 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Looking at the numbers more rUK is Scotlands biggest trading partner by quite some distance. Should Scotland ever vote YES the number one priority will be securing a mutually acceptable trade deal with rUK. After that our second and much smaller trading partner is the rest of the world excluding the EU. The EU is the third largest trading partner. So joining the EU with rUK then post BREXIT would or could be an incredibly dangerous step and put us in direct conflict with our largest trading partner by far. That could be catastrophic economically speaking for Scotland. Who can predict how the EU and the rUK are going to get on when BREXIT finally happens... and I think it will be a hard BREXIT... we join the EU it could be cutting of our economic noses to spite our faces on a scale that is terrifying. The EU is small potatoes compared to rUK for Scotalnd's economy.

Where I agree with most of this i will say that they export more to us although less of a percentage of their gdp, have you any idea if oil and gas comes into the figures?  

[bonny78]

53 minutes ago, aaid said:

You got anything to back that up with or is that just another throwaway line with no basis in truth. 

Same level of evidence as " not in our country they won't" comment above. 

[ParisInAKilt]

Who will Scottish nationalists blame when Scotland is independent in the EU and fuck all changes?

[aaid]

13 minutes ago, bonny78 said:

Same level of evidence as " not in our country they won't" comment above. 

None then. 

 

[aaid]

The government of the day - in Scotland - which is what happens in the majority of mature independent countries. 

[ParisInAKilt]

5 minutes ago, aaid said:

The government of the day - in Scotland - which is what happens in the majority of mature independent countries. 

Or the EU

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Or the EU

Maybe, after all that's what they do in the UK

 

[Dave78]

53 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Looking at the numbers more rUK is Scotlands biggest trading partner by quite some distance. Should Scotland ever vote YES the number one priority will be securing a mutually acceptable trade deal with rUK. After that our second and much smaller trading partner is the rest of the world excluding the EU. The EU is the third largest trading partner. So joining the EU with rUK then post BREXIT would or could be an incredibly dangerous step and put us in direct conflict with our largest trading partner by far. That could be catastrophic economically speaking for Scotland. Who can predict how the EU and the rUK are going to get on when BREXIT finally happens... and I think it will be a hard BREXIT... we join the EU it could be cutting of our economic noses to spite our faces on a scale that is terrifying. The EU is small potatoes compared to rUK for Scotalnd's economy.

Yep, it's certainly an issue, and will probably be the strongest card played by the No side in indyref2.

For me, keeping the rUK in the SM and CU is the ideal outcome with regards to winning (or at least not losing) the economic argument come indyref2. Failing that, we'll need to wait and see the specifics of the trade deal made between rUK and the EU post-Brexit, as like you say it'll have a big impact on an indy Scotland.

 

[thplinth]

37 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Where I agree with most of this i will say that they export more to us although less of a percentage of their gdp, have you any idea if oil and gas comes into the figures?  

No that is considered revenue of the UK not any region. But at the moment it does not make much difference...

North Sea Revenue: 1998-99 to 2017-18

 

This is quite a good summary of our situation from what I can see.

https://theferret.scot/scotland-uk-country-export-import/

 

[bonny78]

Calm doon.  We're British aren't we??? 

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, bonny78 said:

Calm doon.  We're British aren't we??? 

And european, you like that eh?

Edited May 22, 2019 by hampden_loon2878

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, thplinth said:

Looking at the numbers more rUK is Scotlands biggest trading partner by quite some distance. Should Scotland ever vote YES the number one priority will be securing a mutually acceptable trade deal with rUK. After that our second and much smaller trading partner is the rest of the world excluding the EU. The EU is the third largest trading partner. So joining the EU with rUK then post BREXIT would or could be an incredibly dangerous step and put us in direct conflict with our largest trading partner by far. That could be catastrophic economically speaking for Scotland. Who can predict how the EU and the rUK are going to get on when BREXIT finally happens... and I think it will be a hard BREXIT... we join the EU it could be cutting of our economic noses to spite our faces on a scale that is terrifying. The EU is small potatoes compared to rUK for Scotalnd's economy.

It all depends on what terms rUK leave the EU with. At present the SNP are in a no win situation. They can't come up with a coherent policy until they know these terms. Even when they do, it's not going to be easy. If it's a "no deal" Brexit, they have to come up with a policy which ensures there will be an open border with England. Not easy. If the deal is that rUK stay in a customs union and the single market (unlikely, I agree) then they need a different policy. Again not easy, but slightly less difficult IMO. I would guess that a no deal brexit makes it more likely that we have a referendum but we would be less likely to win it. Whereas staying in the CU and SM makes it less likely that we have a referendum but more chance of winning it. Bit of a catch 22, I think.

If we didn't already know how incompetent the Westminster government are, we might be forgiven for thinking that they had deliberately manufactured this situation.

[thplinth]

6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It all depends on what terms rUK leave the EU with. At present the SNP are in a no win situation. They can't come up with a coherent policy until they know these terms. Even when they do, it's not going to be easy. If it's a "no deal" Brexit, they have to come up with a policy which ensures there will be an open border with England. Not easy. If the deal is that rUK stay in a customs union and the single market (unlikely, I agree) then they need a different policy. Again not easy, but slightly less difficult IMO. I would guess that a no deal brexit makes it more likely that we have a referendum but we would be less likely to win it. Whereas staying in the CU and SM makes it less likely that we have a referendum but more chance of winning it. Bit of a catch 22, I think.

If we didn't already know how incompetent the Westminster government are, we might be forgiven for thinking that they had deliberately manufactured this situation.

That is the exact thought I had.