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On 3/23/2019 at 3:29 PM, ParisInAKilt said:

 

I’m sure she’d be in favour of one if and when Scotland votes for independence.

To be fair calling for a second vote over BREXIT is consistent... as the SNP lost the first indy vote and also want another ref on it. Saying no we must respect the BREXIT vote could easily be turned back on the SNP if they in turn do not equally respect the first indy vote.

However the reason the SNP can legitimately call for indyref2 now is directly because of BREXIT. So trying kill it before indyref2 is shooting yourself not in the foot but more in the head. Kill BREXIT and you kill indyref2. So again what exactly is NS trying achieve here? She seems muddled and shortsighted.

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14 minutes ago, thplinth said:

At the end of the day a hard brexit will be the thing that most optimizes the chance of the Scottish public voting YES in any Indyref2. Any smart & ruthless leader would be letting that happen instead of trying to avert it by teaming up with these utter bawbags. If NS and the Blairite wanks are successful what she will have achieved is screwing indyref2. She is an absolute idiot with zero strategic vision of how to achieve the goal. 

Completely agree and it is so obvious that i am struggling to believe that this is her agenda, surely this must be part of a plan we can not see as yet? If no she must be a unionist plant 😂😢. Hard brexit is our best hope as nothing changes the mindset of a voter more than a drop in their standard of living

 

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totally anecdotal but both my parents are disillusioned with the SNP now.  Had dinner with them yesterday and quite amazed with the turnaround.

never thought i'd hear that from them.  They did vote leave and I think that has much to do with it.

my Dad who is not massively political says people that were SNP before in the factory are no longer.  Can't stand Nicola Sturgeon etc..  What they are now god knows..

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1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Completely agree and it is so obvious that i am struggling to believe that this is her agenda, surely this must be part of a plan we can not see as yet? If no she must be a unionist plant 😂😢. Hard brexit is our best hope as nothing changes the mindset of a voter more than a drop in their standard of living

 

There are two sides to this

It is possible that she realises either;

Brexit cannot be stopped

If it is stopped or we have a Brexit without leaving the EU England will go into meltdown

If there is a second EU referendum England will go into meltdown regardless of whether remain or leave wins - if remain wins social meltdown and if leave wins economic meltdown

And when the shit hits the fan she can take the moral told you so highground

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If you don't think that Scotland is better off being part of the EU and that it would be better for an Independent Scotland if the UK was also in the EU as well then chances are you won't agree with the SNP's current strategy or much of this post but to me it makes the most sense. 

Lets not forget that remaining in the EU is very much the popular position in Scotland - more popular in terms of the percentage of vote than remaining in the UK.

The Scottish Government has an absolute responsibility to do all they can do to try and limit and mitigate the impacts of Brexit on Scotland and that should be the case regardless of who is in charge.    The leadership of the UK Labour party is taking a path of enabling Brexit by doing nothing because they want to see the UK leave the UK but not be blamed for it.   How is that working out for them?   One thing the SNP can see from both Labour and the Tories is that you can't please all of the people all of the time.

Having a second referendum on leaving the EU significantly weakens the arguments against having a second referendum on Indy, especially if the result is largely the same as 2016.   Not that the Unionists would see it that way but their case is hard to rationally justify.

It also opens up setting a possible precedent for a subsequent IndyRef2 of having another vote on that once the terms are known.   However, given that would mean that a second independence referendum had been held and won by Yes and at present all we have is an intransigent UK government saying "now is not the time" then that's a bridge I'd be prepared to cross when I came to it.

My view is that the UK remaining in the EU - or at least the Single Market/Customs Union is that it negates the arguments that were put out in 2014 around troops on the border, trade, need your passport to visit England, etc.  Essentially the reality will be that whatever relationships are in place for the UK with the EU can and will be cut and paste for an independent Scotland, particularly whatever is in place for the border in Ireland.    In 2014 the charge was that an Independent Scotland would be thrown out the EU and would be "at the back of the queue" to rejoin.    I don't think that following the last three years carry-on that really carries any weight, I think Scotland probably has more friends in the EU now than it did in 2014 as a result of not only the vote in 2016 but also the Scottish Governments committed and continued stance on Scotland being a pro-European nation.

Regardless of the fact it would be reprehensible for the SG to deliberately follow a path that would see Scotland markedly worse off, I'm not sure that a position of chaos and instability would be the best ground to win a referendum from.

To borrow a phrase, to win a referendum on Independence it needs to be about hope over fear and I believe that when things are really bad, the natural instinct is to hunker down and try and ride it out, people are more likely to vote for a change when they are feeling good about themselves.  To mix more metaphors, the desire to not jump from the frying pan into the fire is stronger than the urge not to fix it if it isn't broken.

FWIW, who knows what will happen in the next few days, let alone months or years.  However, I expect that regardless of what happens with Brexit, the SG will request a section 30 order to hold another referendum which will be rejected.    I then think that the 2021 Holyrood elections will then be fought on a clear and unequivocal manifesto to have a second referendum, no material change in circumstance, no if public opinion dictates it, a clear "if we're elected there will be a referendum" pledge.   Even if the 2016 referendum is overturned and the UK remains a full member of the the arguments will be around the democratic deficit and the incompetence of the UK state.

As I've said before, if the SNP and Greens can't get a majority in Holyrood on that manifesto, then there's no chance of winning a second referendum anyway.

 

 

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

If you don't think that Scotland is better off being part of the EU and that it would be better for an Independent Scotland if the UK was also in the EU as well then chances are you won't agree with the SNP's current strategy or much of this post but to me it makes the most sense. 

Lets not forget that remaining in the EU is very much the popular position in Scotland - more popular in terms of the percentage of vote than remaining in the UK.

The Scottish Government has an absolute responsibility to do all they can do to try and limit and mitigate the impacts of Brexit on Scotland and that should be the case regardless of who is in charge.    The leadership of the UK Labour party is taking a path of enabling Brexit by doing nothing because they want to see the UK leave the UK but not be blamed for it.   How is that working out for them?   One thing the SNP can see from both Labour and the Tories is that you can't please all of the people all of the time.

Having a second referendum on leaving the EU significantly weakens the arguments against having a second referendum on Indy, especially if the result is largely the same as 2016.   Not that the Unionists would see it that way but their case is hard to rationally justify.

It also opens up setting a possible precedent for a subsequent IndyRef2 of having another vote on that once the terms are known.   However, given that would mean that a second independence referendum had been held and won by Yes and at present all we have is an intransigent UK government saying "now is not the time" then that's a bridge I'd be prepared to cross when I came to it.

My view is that the UK remaining in the EU - or at least the Single Market/Customs Union is that it negates the arguments that were put out in 2014 around troops on the border, trade, need your passport to visit England, etc.  Essentially the reality will be that whatever relationships are in place for the UK with the EU can and will be cut and paste for an independent Scotland, particularly whatever is in place for the border in Ireland.    In 2014 the charge was that an Independent Scotland would be thrown out the EU and would be "at the back of the queue" to rejoin.    I don't think that following the last three years carry-on that really carries any weight, I think Scotland probably has more friends in the EU now than it did in 2014 as a result of not only the vote in 2016 but also the Scottish Governments committed and continued stance on Scotland being a pro-European nation.

Regardless of the fact it would be reprehensible for the SG to deliberately follow a path that would see Scotland markedly worse off, I'm not sure that a position of chaos and instability would be the best ground to win a referendum from.

To borrow a phrase, to win a referendum on Independence it needs to be about hope over fear and I believe that when things are really bad, the natural instinct is to hunker down and try and ride it out, people are more likely to vote for a change when they are feeling good about themselves.  To mix more metaphors, the desire to not jump from the frying pan into the fire is stronger than the urge not to fix it if it isn't broken.

FWIW, who knows what will happen in the next few days, let alone months or years.  However, I expect that regardless of what happens with Brexit, the SG will request a section 30 order to hold another referendum which will be rejected.    I then think that the 2021 Holyrood elections will then be fought on a clear and unequivocal manifesto to have a second referendum, no material change in circumstance, no if public opinion dictates it, a clear "if we're elected there will be a referendum" pledge.   Even if the 2016 referendum is overturned and the UK remains a full member of the the arguments will be around the democratic deficit and the incompetence of the UK state.

As I've said before, if the SNP and Greens can't get a majority in Holyrood on that manifesto, then there's no chance of winning a second referendum anyway.

The first thing I highlighted is either a typo on your behalf or garbage. You cannot argue that indyref2 is ok without arguing BREXIT2 is ok. And vice versa. That is feckin obvious.

The second thing I highlighted is also wrong. These are exactly the conditions likely to move people towards YES. As long as they are perceived to have been caused by Westminster and I don't think that is a hard argument to make at all given the last few years. 

Yeah well Fear won last time remember. I think we need a bit of stick next time as well as a bit of carrot. BREXIT chaos is that stick.

Finally - and whose fault is that?

NS is trying to mitigate BEXIT and make it 'ok' for Scotland. Why the fuck is she doing that?

Scotland voted to remain part of the UK. That means you are small voter block in a much bigger union of voter blocks and as such you can get dragged along with things you as a smaller block don't agree with but that is exactly what they signed up for by not voting YES. After that decision it is a fucking irrelevance if people in Scotland did not want BREXIT. Tough shit, the UK did. You want to change that you know how.

FFS the SNP need to stop being a such nanny state bunch of wet blanket cunts. Let BREXIT happen, it is called democracy. And guess what by letting people actually experience the consequences of their decisions maybe just maybe they will modify those decisions next time around. You lot just want it to be the same, as if no BREXIT happened, and you think somehow you will then go onto win indyref2 on the back of it. You are fucking nuts. No pain, no gain.

 

Edited by thplinth
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5 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

totally anecdotal but both my parents are disillusioned with the SNP now.  Had dinner with them yesterday and quite amazed with the turnaround.

never thought i'd hear that from them.  They did vote leave and I think that has much to do with it.

my Dad who is not massively political says people that were SNP before in the factory are no longer.  Can't stand Nicola Sturgeon etc..  What they are now god knows..

Strange,i had that exact convo with my mother and brother yesterday, my brother will vote snp again i have no doubt however my mother is adimint she will not vote snp in the next election due to the fact “nicola obviously doesn’t believe in democracy” a bit depressing really, however a no deal would more than likely iron that out

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I must say that my feelings towards the SNP have  become pretty lukewarm during Nicola's reign and that is not something I expected.

The only two reasons I will continue to vote SNP is that I still want independence and voting SNP is the only way that will happen and that there is no other viable alternative. All that hope, exciting and enthusiasm has pretty much been crushed by the SNP since 2014. 

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11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Strange,i had that exact convo with my mother and brother yesterday, my brother will vote snp again i have no doubt however my mother is adimint she will not vote snp in the next election due to the fact “nicola obviously doesn’t believe in democracy” a bit depressing really, however a no deal would more than likely iron that out

That being said, my taxi driver this morning  was all for the snp lol which gave me a little lift

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1 minute ago, ParisInAKilt said:

There was a fairly strong Stugeon love in I remember at the start, a lot of seflie’s, feels a bit embarrassing getting taken in by it now. 

I was speaking personally :)

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10 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

There was a fairly strong Stugeon love in I remember at the start, a lot of seflie’s, feels a bit embarrassing getting taken in by it now. 

The fat lady hasnt sang yet

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19 minutes ago, Lamia said:

I think most people still think she is a hero though so unlikely to be embarrassed 

I think most people, including me, werent per say embarrassed, but just found it staggeringly short sighted.

The SNP do a good job of trying to keep their noses clean and i'd imagine the strategists were every bit as dumbfounded as everyone else because it's just ammunition for everyone that is anti SNP - left and right

However in the whole wasps nest of selfies it's not exactly up there with for example The Queen and Martin McGuinness and what was she supposed to do ? Be rude and refuse ?

And lets not forget, there is still a vast deal of respect for Blair and Campbell amongst the non internet generation in Scotland - certainly more than they have for Scottish Labour

Doesnt excuse it but on reflection it could have been worse

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2 hours ago, Lamia said:

I mean WTF was she thinking.................😡

Yet hardly a whiff of criticism. I am no fan of Shafi but it was quite sad to see so many leaping to Nicola's defence.

NS.jpg

Seems he was a unionist really. Judging by the replies.

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1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

The fat lady hasnt sang yet

This. Theresa May has managed to string out the whole UK for over two years on the false premise that everyone can have the Brexit they want. But they can't and they won't. She has wasted two years, and all the while, all sorts of people still think that they can still get what they want, which puts Scottish independence on the back burner as a distraction (and a long slog of domestic agenda to be got through in Scotland trying to keep everyone happy while powerless to do anything about it). But the proverbial s h i t has not yet hit the proverbial f a n yet and only when it does will the losers realise what has happened to them, and only then will we know which way they will fall.  

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5 hours ago, aaid said:

It also opens up setting a possible precedent for a subsequent IndyRef2 of having another vote on that once the terms are known.   However, given that would mean that a second independence referendum had been held and won by Yes and at present all we have is an intransigent UK government saying "now is not the time" then that's a bridge I'd be prepared to cross when I came to it.

I think it only has weight if the terms are significantly different to what was promised in the referendum. 

Image result for vote leave leaflet single market

Only 35% of 'Leave' voters expected to leave the single market as a result of leaving the EU; people didn't think the UK would leave the Single Market. Had the UK decided to remain within the Single Market, then there wouldn't be the backlash we're currently seeing - as Single Market membership is vastly more important to the economy than EU membership.

Provided an independence referendum is held and the Scottish Government peruses a policy similar to what it said it would do, there would be no strong argument for a 'terms'  referendum (with a stay in the UK option, at least).

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9 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

I think it only has weight if the terms are significantly different to what was promised in the referendum. 

Image result for vote leave leaflet single market

Only 35% of 'Leave' voters expected to leave the single market as a result of leaving the EU; people didn't think the UK would leave the Single Market. Had the UK decided to remain within the Single Market, then there wouldn't be the backlash we're currently seeing - as Single Market membership is vastly more important to the economy than EU membership.

Provided an independence referendum is held and the Scottish Government peruses a policy similar to what it said it would do, there would be no strong argument for a 'terms'  referendum (with a stay in the UK option, at least).

That's true and I don't view the two referendums - EU & Indy - as equivalent.  IMHO, there's only a justification for another referendum on the EU on the basis of the conduct of the first referendum and being sold a false prospectus by the Leave side.  I doubt that would be the case for any future IndyRef but that wouldn't stop the losing side from trying to use it as leverage. 

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4 hours ago, thplinth said:

FFS the SNP need to stop being a such nanny state bunch of wet blanket cunts. Let BREXIT happen, it is called democracy. And guess what by letting people actually experience the consequences of their decisions maybe just maybe they will modify those decisions next time around. You lot just want it to be the same, as if no BREXIT happened, and you think somehow you will then go onto win indyref2 on the back of it. You are fucking nuts. No pain, no gain.

Pretty much agree with that.  I think though (and hope fervently) that Nicola Sturgeon is judging that Brexit will inevitably happen in some shape or form and that appearing to be trying to do what she can to prevent it demonstrates that she has tried to mitigate the damage.  I don't believe that she is just happy to be FM and draw the salary for as long as possible - she has made it her life's work to win indy for Scotland.  I suspect she would be disappointed if we ended up with A50 revoked and the yoons saying we had no mandate (although the last 2 and a half years alone justifies an indy vote).  I reckon she is playing a clever game and when she can see the whites of their eyes she will trigger the process.  Timing is everything here.  No point in going too soon and right now an indy campaign would be drowned out - after whatever transpires, unless it is a total abandonment of brexit, the yoons will have no arguments to support the uK any longer.

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5 hours ago, thplinth said:

FFS the SNP need to stop being a such nanny state bunch of wet blanket cunts. Let BREXIT happen, it is called democracy. And guess what by letting people actually experience the consequences of their decisions maybe just maybe they will modify those decisions next time around. You lot just want it to be the same, as if no BREXIT happened, and you think somehow you will then go onto win indyref2 on the back of it. You are fucking nuts. No pain, no gain.

As I mentioned above, the people didn't expect to leave the Single Market - which is what the real issue is for most people. If the UK were leaving the EU and remaining in the Single Market, then I highly doubt there would be anything like the opposition we're seeing now. The SNP can't just stand by and let Scotland's economy fall apart, especially when they're in Government (even if it's not Holyrood's responsibility).

Also, if the SNP don't attempt to keep the UK in the EU, then people who voted 'No' and 'Remain' would be more likely to think that the SNP were just trying to play politics on the issue to achieve independence and would therefore be less likely to vote 'Yes' in an indyref; doing things that appear to be counter-intuitive to achieving independence would make the average person think that the SNP's views are based on firm principles and are acting in the interests of Scotland, not just the party's interest.

I agree though that people do need to experience the consequences of their decisions, as that's the only surefire way of getting people to change their outlook. That's the only reason why the 1997 referendum was won by the margin that it was: people realised the mistake they made in 1979 (well, Scotland did vote 'Yes' in 1979, but...) and weren't going to make it twice. The same is true of any future referendum on independence.

Edited by Clyde1998
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