The Brexit Thread

[stirlish]

Update from Donald Tusk.
 

There will be NO change .

The backstop stays.

"I hope there is place in hell for the brexiteers who didnt and still dont have a sketch of a plan"

 

EU are ramping it up now and seem raging with UK

[McDange]

The Yoonstream will be pumping out the "look how bad Brexit has been, Independence will be worse" as Project Fear II. This is how they'll try and win over those most resistant to any form of change. Although I must say that I love the idea of Holyrood running circles around Westminster after seeing how incompetent they really are...  

[aaid]

2 hours ago, McDange said:

The Yoonstream will be pumping out the "look how bad Brexit has been, Independence will be worse" as Project Fear II. This is how they'll try and win over those most resistant to any form of change. Although I must say that I love the idea of Holyrood running circles around Westminster after seeing how incompetent they really are...  

I've no doubt that will be true but it's a bit of a loaded argument for BT-types and one that's easily countered.   First of all, if it's a Brexiteer Unionist, well they can't really argue that Brexit has been bad or difficult as that goes against their core viewpoint and you can argue that "Yes, the brexit process has been difficult but I'm sure you would say that the outcome was worth it and so Independence may be a difficult process but the similarly the outcome will be worth it".    If you've a Remainer Unionist, then if the say "Look how divisive and difficult the process has been", the response would be "look how the UK has been exposed as being incompetent and dysfunctional by the Brexit process"

If either side tries to blame it all on the EU, then the response is - and we're supposed to want to remain part of the UK that's been given the runaround by the EU for years rather than be part of the EU.   Ah, but then, the UK will play hardball on any separation negotations, Scotland will get a bad deal... What, like the same way they played hardball with the EU and got a great deal?

[Ally Bongo]

 

[Caledonian Craig]

3 hours ago, McDange said:

The Yoonstream will be pumping out the "look how bad Brexit has been, Independence will be worse" as Project Fear II. This is how they'll try and win over those most resistant to any form of change. Although I must say that I love the idea of Holyrood running circles around Westminster after seeing how incompetent they really are...  

Oh yes I have no doubt that will be used in Project Fear 2 but lets remember that the massive problem with Brexit has been the border issue in Ireland which won't come into play. That won't stop them using it though but I yes....meh. For christ sake they must have little faith in how badly Scots want independence if they thing it will be put off by the aftermath negotiations.

[PapofGlencoe]

Imagine if we leave the EU with No deal.

And heehaw really changes 🤣

starting to think folk might be jumping the shark here.

folk talking about hoarding food supplies and that.  Absolute weirdos.

There's a blind panic amongst the "chatterati" while very few people are truly worried.  If those in the previous yes camp can't see the project fear here they're being disingenuous.

I say this as committed Scottish independence supporter and proud European.

[PapofGlencoe]

26 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Oh yes I have no doubt that will be used in Project Fear 2 but lets remember that the massive problem with Brexit has been the border issue in Ireland which won't come into play. That won't stop them using it though but I yes....meh. For christ sake they must have little faith in how badly Scots want independence if they thing it will be put off by the aftermath negotiations.

maybe im being daft too but why don't the UK just say we will not check goods coming in via the irish border.  take the hit on import taxes and move on.  they want a free deal anyway.  

it then becomes the irish/EU that wish to create a checking system going the other way.  becomes a political issue for them.

[hampden_loon2878]

I was thinking earlier how crazy a situation it was for david cameron to call a referendum on somthing he did not support, he was always going to lose, it would be loke ruth Davidson  calling a indy ref 2, we would definitely get a yes vote in that scenario 🤔

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I was thinking earlier how crazy a situation it was for david cameron to call a referendum on somthing he did not support, he was always going to lose, it would be loke ruth Davidson  calling a indy ref 2, we would definitely get a yes vote in that scenario 🤔

It was purely done to stint the rise of UKIP who had scooped up lots of seats in the 2014 European Elections. He banked on a No vote being returned and gaining votes from potential UKIP voters in the process in the upcoming 2015 GE. Of course things panned out very differently.

[thplinth]

I am for the hardest BREXIT imaginable, diamond BREXIT probably. Flicking the V's whilst mooning and shouting obscenities... as the clock runs out. Signed, Me.

These EU bigwigs are colossal cunts and that was true long before BREXIT. More than happy for the UK to play the SAMPSON OPTION.

 

[exile]

17 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I was thinking earlier how crazy a situation it was for david cameron to call a referendum on somthing he did not support, he was always going to lose, it would be loke ruth Davidson  calling a indy ref 2, we would definitely get a yes vote in that scenario 🤔

Didn't Wendy Alexander once threaten something similar -  bring it on? -  but had to row back on it. 

[Toepoke]

[The White Ceelo]

10 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

maybe im being daft too but why don't the UK just say we will not check goods coming in via the irish border.  take the hit on import taxes and move on.  they want a free deal anyway.  

it then becomes the irish/EU that wish to create a checking system going the other way.  becomes a political issue for them.

It is the EU that want a hard border in the event of No deal. The hard border should not be an Issue except it might bring a return to the troubles. One difference though is it would be manned by civvies and not UK army. This is why a deal of sorts will be agreed at the 11th hr IMO

[exile]

2 hours ago, The White Ceelo said:

It is the EU that want a hard border in the event of No deal. 

Eh, surely one of the main reasons people voted Leave was to take back control of our borders?

The EU invented free movement, Schengen-style; it's the UK who don't wish people coming freely to Britain via the back door. 

[Orraloon]

4 hours ago, The White Ceelo said:

It is the EU that want a hard border in the event of No deal. The hard border should not be an Issue except it might bring a return to the troubles. One difference though is it would be manned by civvies and not UK army. This is why a deal of sorts will be agreed at the 11th hr IMO

The EU would need border checks to try to prevent goods entering the EU which do not comply with EU regulations - chlorinated chicken, straight bananas (or is it bent ones? can't remember now) and suchlike. The UK will need border checks to try to stop immigrants just driving into the UK. That is one of the main reasons we are leaving the EU, after all.

It will be manned by civvies until one of those civvies gets shot, then they will get protection from the police or army and it just escalates from there. Anybody who thinks that the "troubles" are over, just aren't paying attention, IMO.

 

[thplinth]

We did not have to leave the EU to tackle the perceived over immigration problem in the UK. Ask yourself why people are so desperate to get to the UK from say France. France is not exactly a third world country so why are they queuing up to get into the UK from a country where they are already perfectly safe and looked after?

They made it so Britain was especially attractive even versus other rich and prosperous EU states. It was and is totally avoidable but very clearly they do not want to avoid it.

Like in the US I suspect immigration policy in the UK was weaponized a good while ago now. But for whose benefit because it was certainly not for the citizenry.

Edited February 7, 2019 by thplinth

[Caledonian Craig]

2 hours ago, exile said:

Eh, surely one of the main reasons people voted Leave was to take back control of our borders?

The EU invented free movement, Schengen-style; it's the UK who don't wish people coming freely to Britain via the back door. 

Precisely.

And now we are where we are. Brexit was voted for on the back of false promises that couldn't be met and in most cases had not even been considered (the border in Ireland). It smacks of it being aimed purely at the English masses who wouldn't have a hard border/no border to think about and like is the way in this union anything outside of England is an after-thought so the border issue in Ireland wasn't even given a second thought and now they are left not knowing what is the way forward as Northern Ireland's DUP who are propping up the Tory government refuse to budge on the border issue.

[Dave78]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

 

It will be manned by civvies until one of those civvies gets shot, then they will get protection from the police or army and it just escalates from there. Anybody who thinks that the "troubles" are over, just aren't paying attention, IMO.

 

Correct. Any border infrastructure won't last 5 minutes. Sinn Fein have no control over these people.

Btw, the leader of the Dublin branch of the 'New IRA' was convicted for murdering another dissident republican just 2 days ago - https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/new-ira-leader-guilty-of-murdering-dissident-republican-butterly-at-pub-37783221.html

 

 

[weekevie04]

1 hour ago, Dave78 said:

Correct. Any border infrastructure won't last 5 minutes. Sinn Fein have no control over these people.

Btw, the leader of the Dublin branch of the 'New IRA' was convicted for murdering another dissident republican just 2 days ago - https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/new-ira-leader-guilty-of-murdering-dissident-republican-butterly-at-pub-37783221.html

 

What's the view outwith the north (aka the Republic) on a possible border poll in the even of a hard border? Or is no one talking about it?

I was in Belfast last year and did the political tour. Start up the Falls Rd and end down the Shankhill. Both tour guides (ex IRA/UDA prisoners) said these people haven't just gone away, etc.

[PapofGlencoe]

4 hours ago, Orraloon said:

The EU would need border checks to try to prevent goods entering the EU which do not comply with EU regulations - chlorinated chicken, straight bananas (or is it bent ones? can't remember now) and suchlike. The UK will need border checks to try to stop immigrants just driving into the UK. That is one of the main reasons we are leaving the EU, after all.

It will be manned by civvies until one of those civvies gets shot, then they will get protection from the police or army and it just escalates from there. Anybody who thinks that the "troubles" are over, just aren't paying attention, IMO.

 

That's what i mean though.  It's the EU that are setting this border up.  Not the UK.

in other words, the EU's trade deal means more to them than the Good Friday Agreement.  It's the opposite that is being presented at the moment.  Could have been spun differently.

[Dave78]

1 hour ago, weekevie04 said:

 

What's the view outwith the north (aka the Republic) on a possible border poll in the even of a hard border? Or is no one talking about it?

I was in Belfast last year and did the political tour. Start up the Falls Rd and end down the Shankhill. Both tour guides (ex IRA/UDA prisoners) said these people haven't just gone away, etc.

The only people talking about it down here are Sinn Fein. They've been pressuring Fine Gael and Fianna Fail into pushing for it, but they're not concerned with it (reunification has never been a priority for them).

There does seem to be support for it among voters though - https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-poll-no-deal-brexit-january-2019-4459944-Jan2019/

 

 

[aaid]

10 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

The only people talking about it down here are Sinn Fein. They've been pressuring Fine Gael and Fianna Fail into pushing for it, but they're not concerned with it (reunification has never been a priority for them).

There does seem to be support for it among voters though - https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-poll-no-deal-brexit-january-2019-4459944-Jan2019/

 

 

Economically, a hard Brexit followed by a border poll voting in favour of reunification would be a double whammy for the ROI.  They'd take a hit from Brexit and then a hit from taking on NI.   Politically and emotionally I don't think they could go against it though - it would be kind of like, West Germany rebuilding the Berlin Wall after fall of communism.

They's probably get shit loads of EU structural funding though.

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, PapofGlencoe said:

That's what i mean though.  It's the EU that are setting this border up.  Not the UK.

in other words, the EU's trade deal means more to them than the Good Friday Agreement.  It's the opposite that is being presented at the moment.  Could have been spun differently.

The UK need a border too. 

The EU don't want a No Deal Brexit and they don't want a border. As far as the EU are concerned they have already agreed a deal with the UK government which does not require a border. The UK are in the process of reneging on that deal and at the same time not coming up with any alternative.

 

[Dave78]

12 minutes ago, aaid said:

Economically, a hard Brexit followed by a border poll voting in favour of reunification would be a double whammy for the ROI.  They'd take a hit from Brexit and then a hit from taking on NI.   Politically and emotionally I don't think they could go against it though - it would be kind of like, West Germany rebuilding the Berlin Wall after fall of communism.

They's probably get shit loads of EU structural funding though.

Yep, i've no doubt RoI voters would vote Yes to reunification.

(I'm assuming there would have to be a referendum in the republic, like there was to approve the GFA).

[aaid]

8 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Yep, i've no doubt RoI voters would vote Yes to reunification.

(I'm assuming there would have to be a referendum in the republic, like there was to approve the GFA).

I could be wrong but I think that's outlined in the GFA.  Two separate referendums on both sides of the border and majority required in both.   The Irish constitution would most likely need one as it seems to need a referendum for just about anything.