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The Brexit Thread


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4 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

The vast majority of people's knowledge about the EU amounted to that we were in it and the occasional banana/vaccuum story in the Daily Mail

Fuck all else

Even if that’s true, Labour claiming to have these people interests at heart while telling them they voted the wrong way doesn’t appear to be a successful strategy short and long term. 

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Just now, ParisInAKilt said:

Even if that’s true, Labour claiming to have these people interests at heart while telling them they voted the wrong way doesn’t appear to be a successful strategy short and long term. 

Thats because of Labour's strategy during the EU debate and Corbyn being a semi brexiteer

I get the banning of state intervention in Industries gripe but a better way was to try like hell to change the EU from within

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5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The working class voters are that thick they bought into the lie of who was the bigger enemy and the bigger cause of their problems

Hint - It wasnt the EU

 

4 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The vast majority of people's knowledge about the EU amounted to that we were in it and the occasional banana/vaccuum story in the Daily Mail

Fuck all else

Thank goodness we have you to tell us all how these people really think.

Edited by thplinth
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19 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

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'The Mail Comment' is intriguing...

'... Mrs May's level-headed, realistic compromise. The alternative is several different kinds of chaos, bad for us all and very bad for the economy and our prosperity'.

 

Sorry, did this newspaper not push for an all out Brexit over many, many years?

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6 minutes ago, Rich NATA said:

'The Mail Comment' is intriguing...

'... Mrs May's level-headed, realistic compromise. The alternative is several different kinds of chaos, bad for us all and very bad for the economy and our prosperity'.

 

Sorry, did this newspaper not push for an all out Brexit over many, many years?

Changed editor i believe. This new one thinks differently.

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15 minutes ago, aaid said:

SNP trying to bounce Labour into calling a no-confidence vote today.  Interesting to see how this turns out.

Thinking about this, Its a bit of a win/win/win for the SNP here.

What they seem to be proposing is that if Labour don't call the vote of No-Confidence then they - along with the LDs, PC & Greens - will table the vote.  Parliamentary procedure though means that it has to then be moved by Labour before it can be put to the vote. 

There's three possible outcomes, all of which come out well for the SNP.

If Labour don't move the motion then they will be accused of propping up the Tories and that will be used as very big stick to beat Scottish Labour with.

If Labour moves the motion and it succeeds and results in a general election, then - based on all recent polling - the SNP are likely to increase their vote and number of MPs and could be in a stronger position to get concessions on holding IndyRef2.

If the motion fails and the Tories limp on - winning the vote of NC - is a different matter from getting their deal through.  That then bounces Labour into supporting a second Brexit referendum.

 

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4 minutes ago, aaid said:

Thinking about this, Its a bit of a win/win/win for the SNP here.

What they seem to be proposing is that if Labour don't call the vote of No-Confidence then they - along with the LDs, PC & Greens - will table the vote.  Parliamentary procedure though means that it has to then be moved by Labour before it can be put to the vote. 

There's three possible outcomes, all of which come out well for the SNP.

If Labour don't move the motion then they will be accused of propping up the Tories and that will be used as very big stick to beat Scottish Labour with.

If Labour moves the motion and it succeeds and results in a general election, then - based on all recent polling - the SNP are likely to increase their vote and number of MPs and could be in a stronger position to get concessions on holding IndyRef2.

If the motion fails and the Tories limp on - winning the vote of NC - is a different matter from getting their deal through.  That then bounces Labour into supporting a second Brexit referendum.

 

 

As i understand it, the SNP and Labour goals are aligned in that they want to bring down the Tories and get a general election. So shouldn't they be working together to achieve that, rather than forcing one party to move when the other doesn't? 

Surely - as pro-Labour commentators are saying - it DOES make sense to delay the No Confidence vote until after May comes back empty-handed from Brussels, as it'd be more likely to succeed?

Re your last scenario above, to me that doesn't feel like a 'win' tbh.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

 

As i understand it, the SNP and Labour goals are aligned in that they want to bring down the Tories and get a general election. So shouldn't they be working together to achieve that, rather than forcing one party to move when the other doesn't? 

Surely - as pro-Labour commentators are saying - it DOES make sense to delay the No Confidence vote until after May comes back empty-handed from Brussels, as it'd be more likely to succeed?

Re your last scenario above, to me that doesn't feel like a 'win' tbh.

 

 

SNP's objectives are - in this order - 1. Independence for Scotland, 2.  Remain in the EU.

In the case of a second EU referendum, if the 2016 result is overturned then objective 2 is achieved.  If it stays the same - and assuming Scotland votes to Remain as before - then it strengthens the arguments for a second Independence Referendum so moving towards the main objective.   You can guarantee that as far as the SNP is concerned they would be framing any second EU referendum as a repeat of the 2016 result being taken as a mandate for IndyRef2.

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4 minutes ago, aaid said:

SNP's objectives are - in this order - 1. Independence for Scotland, 2.  Remain in the EU.

In the case of a second EU referendum, if the 2016 result is overturned then objective 2 is achieved.  If it stays the same - and assuming Scotland votes to Remain as before - then it strengthens the arguments for a second Independence Referendum so moving towards the main objective.   You can guarantee that as far as the SNP is concerned they would be framing any second EU referendum as a repeat of the 2016 result being taken as a mandate for IndyRef2.

Ok, i get that. But why not work with Labour to give the No Confidence vote the best chance? That secures the general election, which will hopefully secure the SNP's kingmaker position in the HOC, with indyref2 a consequence of that.

Why take the risk of another Brexit referendum providing an IndyRef2 mandate (again)?

It sometimes feels like Nicola has the order of the objectives you mention above backwards.

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3 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Ok, i get that. But why not work with Labour to give the No Confidence vote the best chance? That secures the general election, which will hopefully secure the SNP's kingmaker position in the HOC, with indyref2 a consequence of that.

Why take the risk of another Brexit referendum providing an IndyRef2 mandate (again)?

It sometimes feels like Nicola has the order of the objectives you mention above backwards.

On your first point, the argument is take the opportunity now, when you have the chance rather than wait and see what happens and risk missing the opportunity.

On your last point, I guess its all about getting to the best position to win and playing a longer game.

I fully appreciate these seem to appear completely contradictory and in a way they are.  The difference I'd say is that out of the available options, having a GE, while being something the SNP would welcome is a lot more desirable to Labour for lots of reasons, so the SNP can be a bit more gung-ho on that.  

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10 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Ok, i get that. But why not work with Labour to give the No Confidence vote the best chance? That secures the general election, which will hopefully secure the SNP's kingmaker position in the HOC, with indyref2 a consequence of that.

Why take the risk of another Brexit referendum providing an IndyRef2 mandate (again)?

It sometimes feels like Nicola has the order of the objectives you mention above backwards.

Because the SNP want to win seats from Labour if there is another election. They want to be able to say that the SNP forced Labour to do this and if they hadn't we wouldn't even be getting an election. 

I don't think May will lose a confidence vote anyway, so it probably doesn't really matter.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

 

I don't think May will lose a confidence vote anyway, so it probably doesn't really matter.

 

 

The only way to win a NC vote is for it to happen AFTER May comes back from Brussels with nothing but mealy-moothed promises. Going for a NC now before the Tory rebels in her party have seen May utterly fail will just rally them around their leader. 

The Corbynistas understand this, but Oor Nicola doesn't seem to... She seems too obsessed with securing a 2nd brexit referendum, and is prepared to forego a kingmaking position post-election to ensure there's enough time for it.

Edited by Dave78
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8 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

The only way to win a NC vote is for it to happen AFTER May comes back from Brussels with nothing but mealy-moothed promises. Going for a NC now before the Tory rebels in her party have seen May utterly fail will just rally them around their leader. 

The Corbynistas understand this, but Oor Nicola doesn't seem to... She seems too obsessed with securing a 2nd brexit referendum, and is prepared to forego a kingmaking position post-election to ensure there's enough time for it.

I suspect there is also more than just a suspicion that Labour - or at least the leadership - want to let the clock run out and aren't doing much to either stop Brexit entirely or somehow mitigate the impact.   What they'd prefer is to be out of the EU but it be someone else's fault and tbf the way they've sat on the fence for the last 3 years on this would support that.  

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5 minutes ago, aaid said:

I suspect there is also more than just a suspicion that Labour - or at least the leadership - want to let the clock run out and aren't doing much to either stop Brexit entirely or somehow mitigate the impact.   What they'd prefer is to be out of the EU but it be someone else's fault and tbf the way they've sat on the fence for the last 3 years on this would support that.  

That's a good point, and i think that suspicion is correct.

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4 minutes ago, aaid said:

I suspect there is also more than just a suspicion that Labour - or at least the leadership - want to let the clock run out and aren't doing much to either stop Brexit entirely or somehow mitigate the impact.   What they'd prefer is to be out of the EU but it be someone else's fault and tbf the way they've sat on the fence for the last 3 years on this would support that.  

I agree. Corbyn doesn't want an election. He either loses it, in which case he is finished. Or, he somehow manages to sneak in the side door to No 10 and has to try to sort out the Brexit mess, in which case he is finished. He might get one more go at being PM. He will want to wait a few more years, if he lasts that long.

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Looks like the SNP may be about to test Labour's resolve: https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17290449.snp-gives-jeremy-corbyn-until-end-of-day-to-file-no-confidence-motion

"Ian Blackford has given Jeremy Corbyn until the end of the day to bring a motion of no confidence in Theresa May’s government before other opposition parties do it themselves."

Edited by Clyde1998
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5 hours ago, Orraloon said:

 

I don't think May will lose a confidence vote anyway, so it probably doesn't really matter.

 

 

I'd agree. Tories don't want to overthrow her as the job of PM just now is a poisoned chalice. Oust May now and JRM or BoJo have to deal with the Brexit headache and I don't think either want that on their plate. They'll leave it until a later date. I'd say Corbyn feels much the same.

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