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4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Would the whole agreement fall totally apart because a hard border goes up? I do not pretend to understand the Good Friday Agreement by the way but both countries (Northern Ireland and the Republic) surely accepted the real possibility of a hard border returning if Brexit was voted for.

Yes, that is the whole point.   The Good Friday agreement is a masterpiece of fudge and compromise as it allows people who want to be British - in the North - to be British and allows people who want to be Irish to be Irish in every practical sense.   The only time in history when there has been any form of border checks or restrictions on the island of Ireland was during the Troubles. 

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Craig, Yes. Both sides knew that but only one side had a vote on it and the other side voted remain. I would suggest you read about the Good a Friday agreement as it’s pivotal to peace on the island. John Major and Tony Blair, both major players in delivering the GFA, warned of such a problem. 

Edited by Ken77
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1 minute ago, aaid said:

Yes, that is the whole point.   The Good Friday agreement is a masterpiece of fudge and compromise as it allows people who want to be British - in the North - to be British and allows people who want to be Irish to be Irish in every practical sense.   The only time in history when there has been any form of border checks or restrictions on the island of Ireland was during the Troubles. 

I find it hard to believe. That a hard border alone caused terrorism on the streets of Northern Ireland and would cause terrorism again.

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6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:
7 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I find it hard to believe. That a hard border alone caused terrorism on the streets of Northern Ireland and would cause terrorism again.

I would suggest you read about Irish history. 

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The problem is very simple.  Any kind of border infrastructure - even something as inoffensive as number plate recognition cameras to track goods vehicles becomes a target for dissident republicans and unless you just let them be destroyed, you have to protect those in some way and then the people who are protecting them become targets and the whole thing escalates again.

Unless you have some form of agreement that allows for the free movement of goods and people across that border then you have to have some form of border checks.   

For the EU, they are the ones who are concerned about the movement of goods from the UK into the ROI and then into the wider EU.  Their - understandable - concern is that goods that don't meet EU standards don't find their way into the EU by the back door.    The UK is less concerned about this.

A problem for the UK though is movement of people.  The Common travel area works because the UK and ROI are not in Schengen and the ROI has essentially matched the UK's immigration policy.  That's meant that if you are for example, American, and want to work in the UK, if you apply for a UK or Irish visa they will both apply similar tests so there's little benefit in trying to cheat the system.

However, the day after the UK leaves the EU -or at the end of the transition period , The ROI will immediately have a different immigration policy than the UK as EU nationals will still be able to travel freely to the ROI.   This will mean that someone from say Romania could get on a flight to Dublin, get a bus to Belfast and then ferry over to GB and wouldn't be checked.

How many people would do this isn't clear and of course people wouldn't be able to work legally however given that we know there is an issue in the UK with illegal immigration I'd suggest it would end up to be significant, especially in sectors where unscrupulous employers wouldn't be too averse to paying cash in hand and not looking too closely at passports.

Funnily enough we don't hear to much about this, probably because from the Brexiteers perspective it's a bit of an inconvenient truth with respect to their anti-immigration rhetoric. 

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

The problem is very simple.  Any kind of border infrastructure - even something as inoffensive as number plate recognition cameras to track goods vehicles becomes a target for dissident republicans and unless you just let them be destroyed, you have to protect those in some way and then the people who are protecting them become targets and the whole thing escalates again.

Unless you have some form of agreement that allows for the free movement of goods and people across that border then you have to have some form of border checks.   

For the EU, they are the ones who are concerned about the movement of goods from the UK into the ROI and then into the wider EU.  Their - understandable - concern is that goods that don't meet EU standards don't find their way into the EU by the back door.    The UK is less concerned about this.

A problem for the UK though is movement of people.  The Common travel area works because the UK and ROI are not in Schengen and the ROI has essentially matched the UK's immigration policy.  That's meant that if you are for example, American, and want to work in the UK, if you apply for a UK or Irish visa they will both apply similar tests so there's little benefit in trying to cheat the system.

However, the day after the UK leaves the EU -or at the end of the transition period , The ROI will immediately have a different immigration policy than the UK as EU nationals will still be able to travel freely to the ROI.   This will mean that someone from say Romania could get on a flight to Dublin, get a bus to Belfast and then ferry over to GB and wouldn't be checked.

How many people would do this isn't clear and of course people wouldn't be able to work legally however given that we know there is an issue in the UK with illegal immigration I'd suggest it would end up to be significant, especially in sectors where unscrupulous employers wouldn't be too averse to paying cash in hand and not looking too closely at passports.

Funnily enough we don't hear to much about this, probably because from the Brexiteers perspective it's a bit of an inconvenient truth with respect to their anti-immigration rhetoric. 

Patels comments sum up in part the british attitude , unfortunately for them it is not the 1880's and they are negotiating with the EU not wee Ireland . ~Its a sad state of british politics when a double barrelled etonian toff son of  former times editor is seen by some as a champion of the working class, you couldn't make it up

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53 minutes ago, Newryrep said:

Patels comments sum up in part the british attitude , unfortunately for them it is not the 1880's and they are negotiating with the EU not wee Ireland . ~Its a sad state of british politics when a double barrelled etonian toff son of  former times editor is seen by some as a champion of the working class, you couldn't make it up

She also misses the point that the ROI is self sufficient insofar as food is concerned and exports more than it imports.  The U.K. On the other hand...

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4 hours ago, aaid said:

The problem is very simple.  Any kind of border infrastructure - even something as inoffensive as number plate recognition cameras to track goods vehicles becomes a target for dissident republicans and unless you just let them be destroyed, you have to protect those in some way and then the people who are protecting them become targets and the whole thing escalates again.

We can rest assured (especially after Patel's comments today) that any border infrastructure wouldn't last 5 minutes.

If we Scots think the Tories don't understand Scotland, believe me they understand Ireland even less.

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In the face of heading to a messy acrimonious divorce, I wonder if there's room for another option - a trial separation.

Agree to, say, 5 years arrangement of being just outside the EU - something like the May 'deal', say - but with an option to rejoin on the same terms as if had never left (e.g. British rebate, no Euro, no Schengen, etc.). 

This would, first of all, fulfil the will of the 2016 vote in leaving the EU. It would give some chance of UK forging some distinct policies while bering shielded from the worst predicted disruptions. It would mean we were closely enough aligned that it would be feasible to rejoin on same terms. The time-limited period would concentrate minds, as neither side would be expected to honour the arrangement indefinitely. There would be time to develop and test feasibility of at least some of the half backed solutions now being touted, for border technology, and political overtures to EFTA etc.  If it turned out to be a nightmare halfway house pleasing no one, at least it would be transparently temporary; after which (or even before the full 5 year term was up) there would either be a parliamentary majority to fully leave or rejoin, or else a second referendum. The second referendum would justify itself on the basis that the first one had been honoured; the "leave" option on the ballot would become much clearer and a leave vote would be more decisive. If the trial separation arrangement turned out to be not a nightmare but a comfortable continent-at-arms'-length British muddle through, it could be extended indefinitely if both sides desired...  

A question would then come, what opportunities for Scotland getting something out of this?

Edited by exile
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European Court of Justice rules UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 and halt Brexit

Those wanting a second referendum say the ruling will "electrify" calls for a fresh vote but Leavers warn against stopping Brexit.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/european-court-of-justice-rules-uk-can-unilaterally-revoke-article-50-and-halt-brexit-11576865?fbclid=IwAR2_TdnC7qltEEXPgspqcZHHRRcwNZvi9jow-SK8XJzcB6WPPhetLZpGV7s

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29 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/10/we-call-on-labour-to-back-remain

“As the party of working people, Labour must defend all the rights threatened by Brexit”

Good luck with that, the working class voters who voted to leave probably wont thank you 

The working class voters are that thick they bought into the lie of who was the bigger enemy and the bigger cause of their problems

Hint - It wasnt the EU

Edited by Ally Bongo
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1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

A simple statement about a complex situation. 

The vast majority of people's knowledge about the EU amounted to that we were in it and the occasional banana/vaccuum story in the Daily Mail

Fuck all else

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