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The Brexit Thread


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1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Don’t get me wrong it’s not black and white but the way I see it is the British establishment would love to stop Brexit. 

The establishment is in crisis whatever way this rolls

There comes a point when the scare mongering isnt scare mongering

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The establishment is in crisis whatever way this rolls

There comes a point when the scare mongering isnt scare mongering

 

 

 

Unless it’s an engineered crisis?

Think most of us can agree that there will be a group of people who’ll benefit from all of this and it won’t be the voters. 

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On 11/8/2018 at 10:15 PM, Haggis_trap said:

^ True.
However : Scots law came up trumps here whatever ECJ decides.

Court of Session in Edinburgh ruled UK government couldn't appeal to its own Supreme court.
No wonder BBC has new black out.

I see the UK government have decided to ignore this and have appealed to the UK Supreme court regardless.   Technically, I think they are appealing whether or not the Court of Session was right not to allow the appeal.

It's likely that this is will fail but it's another delaying tactic from the UK government to try and get the November 27th date for the ECJ hearing adjourned so that any ruling from the ECJ is not published before the "meaningful vote".

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One former Brexiteer Cabinet minister tells me: "We are all toast aren't we. This is almost like the Titanic - she can't steer it and she is not going to let anyone else steer it. Normally rats leave a sinking ship - this lot have stayed on it." #Brexit

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I see Jeffrey Donaldson says the deal will encourage Scottish nationalists 

On R4 Today apparently 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/14/brexit-deal-theresa-may-conservatives-meet-decide-cabinet-politics-live?page=with:block-5bebcbabe4b016737f1f486a#block-5bebcbabe4b016737f1f486a

Edited by exile
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On 11/13/2018 at 5:36 AM, ParisInAKilt said:

Unless it’s an engineered crisis?

Think most of us can agree that there will be a group of people who’ll benefit from all of this and it won’t be the voters. 

I think it's stretching to see any kind of organisation or engineering in this truly fecked up state of affairs

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How I see things is this?

There is no way the Tories will or can come up with a deal that keeps everyone sufficiently happy. And to be honest it is all of their own doing.

I do feel that Brexit (if it goes ahead) should be more in the model BoJo wants. It should be a case of cutting all ties. Brexit was voted for and that should be taken for leaving the EU completely - not trying to fudge it into something that pleases all. I mean there is no sense whatsoever in leaving the EU but then tying yourself into similar deals with them but giving up your right to influence decisions made by the EU. That is just plain daft.

Where we are now though is that May wants to appease enough to push a deal through. If it happens I will be gobsmacked. The DUP do not want a hard border in NI and apparently they are not happy with the proposed deal. Brexiteers abhor this halfway house approach whilst Remainers want another referendum. So you see we have complete shambles.

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42 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

From the leaked reports I've seen so far, I haven't seen any mention of whether this "deal" includes or excludes free movement of people. Anybody else know?

This is just the withdrawal agreement and covers the three major areas that need to be agreed for an "orderly" withdrawal, those are: the amount of money due to the EU to meet the UK's commitments; the rights of EU Citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU; the UK/EU border on the island of Ireland.   

That's it.  It's not a trade deal, all this does is to allow the UK to "leave" the EU on the 29th March, then go into an implementation period - undefined - where it will have to follow all EU rules and regulations - but will have no representation in any of the EU institutions.   

It's during the period that the future relationship, trading and other areas, will be negotiated and agreed and free movement of people will undoubtedly form part of that negotiation process.

Coming alongside the withdrawal agreement will be a political statement that details the EU and UK's view of that future agreement but expect that to be short on detail and long on aspiration.

If you like, this is the deal to be able to negotiate the deal.

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I don't think we'll see many resignations from her cabinet, maybe even now at all. 

Some Brexit backbench MPs will mouth off, but not many will follow their lead, and many even Brexit-voting Tories along with remainers will back their party in the vote. 

I expect it will pass both cabinet and Parliament. DUP, SNP ,Lib Dem may vote against it  along with a number of Labour and Tory too ; but it'll be the Labour abstain and Tory 'rebels' that will allow this deal (whatever it may be in full) to go through.

I COULD BE HORRIBLY WRONG THOUGH, but that's my gut prediction before these ''showdown talks'' commence in 20 mins with May and her cabinet. 

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32 minutes ago, phart said:

sitting at 3:15am stewing enough to actually write that. Alex Neil is a sad cunt.

A bit more sinister than that, he's been abusive to Carole Cadwalladr on other occasions, there is more than a suspicion that its concerted with Aaron Banks and Andy Wigmore from Leave.EU.   

He's entitled to his opinions but it really doesn't square with him being a high-profile BBC political presenter and supposedly impartial.   I think he gets away with it as he's freelance but it's probably something the BBC should look at.

You do wonder whether he has something to hide.

 

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3 hours ago, aaid said:

This is just the withdrawal agreement and covers the three major areas that need to be agreed for an "orderly" withdrawal, those are: the amount of money due to the EU to meet the UK's commitments; the rights of EU Citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU; the UK/EU border on the island of Ireland.   

That's it.  It's not a trade deal, all this does is to allow the UK to "leave" the EU on the 29th March, then go into an implementation period - undefined - where it will have to follow all EU rules and regulations - but will have no representation in any of the EU institutions.   

It's during the period that the future relationship, trading and other areas, will be negotiated and agreed and free movement of people will undoubtedly form part of that negotiation process.

Coming alongside the withdrawal agreement will be a political statement that details the EU and UK's view of that future agreement but expect that to be short on detail and long on aspiration.

If you like, this is the deal to be able to negotiate the deal.

Hmmmm....

Does that mean that May might be able to wriggle out of having a vote on this in Parliament, seeing as it isn't the final deal?

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13 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Hmmmm....

Does that mean that May might be able to wriggle out of having a vote on this in Parliament, seeing as it isn't the final deal?

No, the "meaningful vote" is on the Withdrawal Agreement.  The media - and politicians - are confusing things by referring to this as "the deal", its really only stage one.

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5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Basically, if the cabinet agree to this Withdrawal deal then government will report to the EU and then the actual Brexit Deal will then be voted on in Westminster at the beginning of December.

The withdrawal deal will be voted on in December.  Any deal relating to the future trading relationship after the tradition phase will be much later.  The Withdrawal will also have to be passed by all EU 27 states and the EU parliament before it can take effect 

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