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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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2 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Are the SNP not polling higher than they were the last GE ?

So are the Tories in Scotland though.  It's be interesting if someone could factor in that rise against their performance across Scottish seats in 2015.  However that someone cannot be me...

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10 minutes ago, min said:

The last Scottish opinion poll GE voting intentions compared to the 2015 GE:

SNP - 47% (-3%)

Tories - 28% (+13%)

Labour - 14% (-10%)

Libs - 4% (-3%)

 

If you applied that, which you can't really in the face of tactical voting, the very small sample, and differences between constituencies, then the SNP would lose Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and probably Dumfries and Galloway.

And Ian Murray would be out of Edinburgh South too which would be a close three-way fight with Labour, SNP and the Tories. This might be a good option for Davidson to stand, though the loyalty to Murray would likely split the vote to the benefit of the SNP.

Edited by the_fadiator
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Guest flumax
15 minutes ago, min said:

The last Scottish opinion poll GE voting intentions compared to the 2015 GE:

SNP - 47% (-3%)

Tories - 28% (+13%)

Labour - 14% (-10%)

Libs - 4% (-3%)

 

Screenshot_20170418-132404.png

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Gonna make a prediction here.

The Lib Dem's "big revival" will only result in a modest 15-20 seats for them. I don't think Tim Farron is a particularly good communicator either and that will hurt them. Expect a few awkward questions about his commitment to LGBT rights coming his way as well.

In appearance, speech and actions he reminds me of Jerry Lundegaard from the film Fargo come to mention it.

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4 minutes ago, the_fadiator said:

If you applied that, which you can't really in the face of tactical voting, the very small sample, and differences between constituencies, then the SNP would lose Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and probably Dumfries and Galloway.

And Ian Murray would be out of Edinburgh South too which would be a close three-way fight with Labour, SNP and the Tories. This might be a good option for Davidson to stand, though the loyalty to Murray would likely split the vote to the benefit of the SNP.

 

I'd settle for those losses - I'd accept 45 returned SNP MP's right now.

I think West Aberdeenshire will also fall and fear the Tories will throw everything at Moray and the huge scalp that Angus Robertson would be.

The Lib Dems could also benefit from tactical voting against the SNP

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Guest flumax
1 minute ago, Squirrelhumper said:

I'd love to see that bellend Murray lose his seat.

Rather see Murray, Mundell and Carmicheal,  than 4 more torys 

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Agreed. I think they could do pretty well on a reverse Brexit ticket.

Ruth Davidson to stand for the Tories in Edinburgh? Chance of a dream move to Westminster for her...

 

Absolutely no chance she'll stand in Edinburgh for three reasons.  Firstly, the only reason she got in in Edinburgh Central in the HR election was because it was a four way marginal and the Indy vote was split with Alison Johnstone standing for the Greens.  Secondly, Edinburgh was something like 75% remain.  Finally, there is everything to lose and nothing to gain.  If she stood and lost then it's a huge personal blow to her own credibility. 

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8 minutes ago, min said:

I'd settle for those losses - I'd accept 45 returned SNP MP's right now.

Think back 10 years and imagine seeing 45 SNP Westminster MPs as being a disappointing but acceptable result. 

It's certainly been a seismic decade in Scottish politics!

 

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Has anyone mentioned non-UK nationals yet ? I know a Polish guy who didn't vote in elections as he didn't feel engaged. Also said 'not really my business' !!!

He voted No in the Indyref as he wanted to remain part of the UK - came here for better life etc, strong UK good for his family, no previous perception of the Tories as bad. Now a big Yes supporter and will vote SNP in any election now. Can only suspect thousands more must feel the same.

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1 minute ago, killiefaetheferry said:

Has anyone mentioned non-UK nationals yet ? I know a Polish guy who didn't vote in elections as he didn't feel engaged. Also said 'not really my business' !!!

He voted No in the Indyref as he wanted to remain part of the UK - came here for better life etc, strong UK good for his family, no previous perception of the Tories as bad. Now a big Yes supporter and will vote SNP in any election now. Can only suspect thousands more must feel the same.

I don't think he'd be eligible to vote if he's not a British citizen.

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4 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Think back 10 years and imagine seeing 45 SNP Westminster MPs as being a disappointing but acceptable result. 

It's certainly been a seismic decade in Scottish politics!

 

Agree, but if the SNP lose several seats it massively plays to May for indyref2.

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19 minutes ago, min said:

 

I'd settle for those losses - I'd accept 45 returned SNP MP's right now.

I think West Aberdeenshire will also fall and fear the Tories will throw everything at Moray and the huge scalp that Angus Robertson would be.

The Lib Dems could also benefit from tactical voting against the SNP

Moray... 49.9% leave,  Robertson has 18% lead. Will snp leavers flip? 

 

Screenshot_20170418-134541.png

Edited by flumax
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8 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Think back 10 years and imagine seeing 45 SNP Westminster MPs as being a disappointing but acceptable result. 

It's certainly been a seismic decade in Scottish politics!

 

 

There certainly has been some change!

Will be interesting to see what commitments the SNP have in their manifesto re. indyref2 - they need to get this spot on!

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3 minutes ago, flumax said:

Moray... 49.9% leave,  Robertson has 10% lead. Will snp leavers flip? 

 

Screenshot_20170418-134541.png

That's a very big majority to overturn plus Angus Robertson is very high profile.

One good thing about the GE is that the Yes/Leave SNP supporters will have a big decision to make on what's most important to them, which should give a bit of a better view on which way they'd go in a forthcoming Indy Ref.

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Would be interesting if Sturgeon said that 30 seats or more was a mandate for independence, as used to be the accepted benchmark (although it was a higher figure as there were more constituencies, maybe 72 IIRC.  I doubt she will do that however.

The thing about a FPTP election is that even 47% is a massive percentage compared to 28% in terms of percentage of seats won.  If any seats are lost it will be due to specific local issues. Even if the Tories won a few seats, it's only because they are starting from a near-zero baseline.

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7 minutes ago, flumax said:

Moray... 49.9% leave,  Robertson has 18% lead. Will snp leavers flip? 

 

Screenshot_20170418-134541.png

 

But were they 'hard Brexit'? And based on the 2015 result, all the Unionist parties would need to vote for the Tories AND SNP voters would need to shift to the Tories for the SNP to lose. If the SNP get their vote out I can't see enough voters switching to the Tories for the SNP to lose.

Edited by the_fadiator
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