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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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1 hour ago, PapofGlencoe said:

if the snp don't talk about independence given this mess, i won't be voting for them.  And i'm not a rabid nat either champing at the bit for a vote but sometimes you have to state your case and be damned.  utterly bored of politics now.

if its the SNP simply saying "standing up for Scotland" again with no other policy like 2016(?) i'll hardly be able to lift my eyelids to find them on the ballot box never mind put a cross there.

By all means include it in a manifesto but another referendum anytime soon won’t win 

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11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I was comfident that they would Have on anyways in that seat, this should cement that

SNP gain.

It would be a particularly good one too as I always thought McCaig came across really well  - that's if he would want to stand again as MP.

 

 

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2 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

if the snp don't talk about independence given this mess, i won't be voting for them.  And i'm not a rabid nat either champing at the bit for a vote but sometimes you have to state your case and be damned.  utterly bored of politics now.

if its the SNP simply saying "standing up for Scotland" again with no other policy like 2016(?) i'll hardly be able to lift my eyelids to find them on the ballot box never mind put a cross there.

The thing is though the Tories and Labour will stoke up the unionists to vote for them to save the union if the SNP make it all about independence and so rule out scooping up potentially much more voters if they lay off the heavy talk on independence. Every seat the SNP can gain is a step towards another indyref and every vote counts.

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11 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

SNP gain.

It would be a particularly good one too as I always thought McCaig came across really well  - that's if he would want to stand again as MP.

 

 

He's a special advisor to Nicola Sturgeon at the moment which suggests they're "keeping him warm". 

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From my uneducated (on politics) point of view. The SNP should play up the fact they are there to represent Scotland and the interests of Scottish people. That’s how I justify it to the unionist in me.

:lol:

While Brexit may strengthen the case for independence. Independence and more so the thought of another referendum is a turn off to some people, especially off the back of Brexit.

The SNP genuinely representing Scottish interests at Westminster is the big selling point for me.

Edited by sbcmfc
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48 minutes ago, neilser said:

Whenever the next GE might be, I think I’ll have a different Tory candidate to not vote for...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/tory-mp-ross-thomson-accused-of-groping-men-in-commons-bar

 

Maybe Dianne Abbot was playing hard ti get....

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Judging from what i've read on twitter over the last few months, it seems like the age-old 'fundamentalist' versus 'gradualist' split within the SNP/Yes movement is beginning to emerge.

On the fundamentalist side, you have those that believe Sturgeon should "use the mandate" immediately. They want her to request a section 30 order to enable her to hold a legally binding referendum (like 2014) - and when it's inevitably denied (and it will be) - would push for the Scottish parliament to hold a consultative referendum. That referendum would be boycotted by the unionists (delivering a 90% Yes vote), and present the SNP with a Catalan dilemma - respect the vote and declare independence 'illegally' - (and the British supreme court, along with foreign capitals, will decide it's illegal) - or baulk and forever divide the Yes movement, possibly beyond repair.

The gradualist side recognise the long game, and the importance of timing. While Brexit provides legitimate grounds for Indyref2, they are aware that "politics is the art of the possible" (to quote an auld deid German statesman). Until the polls show support for another referendum (nevermind independence) they recognise the importance of maintaining political control of Scotland, and the furthering of the independence cause that that brings.

So, my fellow Yesser TAMBers...which side are you on? :unsure:

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7 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Judging from what i've read on twitter over the last few months, it seems like the age-old 'fundamentalist' versus 'gradualist' split within the SNP/Yes movement is beginning to emerge.

On the fundamentalist side, you have those that believe Sturgeon should "use the mandate" immediately. They want her to request a section 30 order to enable her to hold a legally binding referendum (like 2014) - and when it's inevitably denied (and it will be) - would push for the Scottish parliament to hold a consultative referendum. That referendum would be boycotted by the unionists (delivering a 90% Yes vote), and present the SNP with a Catalan dilemma - respect the vote and declare independence 'illegally' - (and the British supreme court, along with foreign capitals, will decide it's illegal) - or baulk and forever divide the Yes movement, possibly beyond repair.

The gradualist side recognise the long game, and the importance of timing. While Brexit provides legitimate grounds for Indyref2, they are aware that "politics is the art of the possible" (to quote an auld deid German statesman). Until the polls show support for another referendum (nevermind independence) they recognise the importance of maintaining political control of Scotland, and the furthering of the independence cause that that brings.

So, my fellow Yesser TAMBers...which side are you on? :unsure:

There are two camps but not as you describe.

There are those that think you only call for indyref2 when there is clearly polling support for a YES.

Then there are those that seem to think attaining indyref2 is the goal in itself and would call it without clear support in the polls.

The former are what I call sane people and the latter are what I would term as lunatics.

Unfortunately judging by on here at least the lunatics have taken over the asylum.

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The problem with the stance of the latter is that once we are out of the EU it is entirely possible that Westminster will introduce legislation to scupper Independence in the long term 

Whether they would really go the whole hog & close Holyrood i'm not sure - but that brand spanking new Scotland Office doesn't allay any fears 

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33 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

The problem with the stance of the latter is that once we are out of the EU it is entirely possible that Westminster will introduce legislation to scupper Independence in the long term 

Whether they would really go the whole hog & close Holyrood i'm not sure - but that brand spanking new Scotland Office doesn't allay any fears 

I'm not sure why we'd have to leave the EU for that to happen.  The EU would view it as a domestic issue and wouldn't get involved, in the same way that the EU is completely silent on Catalunya.

I doubt any UK government would introduce formal legislation to scupper independence.  As things currently stand constitutionally, Independence can only be achieved with Westminster's consent and agreement.   

Creating formal legislation to "ban" independence would only play into the hands of nationalists.   

 

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2 hours ago, thplinth said:

There are two camps but not as you describe.

There are those that think you only call for indyref2 when there is clearly polling support for a YES.

Then there are those that seem to think attaining indyref2 is the goal in itself and would call it without clear support in the polls.

The former are what I call sane people and the latter are what I would term as lunatics.

Unfortunately judging by on here at least the lunatics have taken over the asylum.

Yes I agree with that summary.

I am in the first group of wait until polls are repeatedly in favour of a Yes vote. However, it is not as simple and easy as that. Right now the EU issue is a clear fundamental change in circumstance and a clear move against Scotland's wishes. If we don't stand up and call for a indyref at this point then wait four or five years and then ask will it be easily refused because there is no call for it (as there is now). I mean unionists would say that if you never called for an indyref over such a massive issue as EU exit then why now?

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33 minutes ago, aaid said:

I'm not sure why we'd have to leave the EU for that to happen.  The EU would view it as a domestic issue and wouldn't get involved, in the same way that the EU is completely silent on Catalunya.

I doubt any UK government would introduce formal legislation to scupper independence.  As things currently stand constitutionally, Independence can only be achieved with Westminster's consent and agreement.   

Creating formal legislation to "ban" independence would only play into the hands of nationalists.   

 

Maybe i have been following Peter Bell on twatter for too long but you should consider his reasoning why if we wait too long it's over 

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2 hours ago, thplinth said:

There are two camps but not as you describe.

There are those that think you only call for indyref2 when there is clearly polling support for a YES.

Then there are those that seem to think attaining indyref2 is the goal in itself and would call it without clear support in the polls.

The former are what I call sane people and the latter are what I would term as lunatics.

Unfortunately judging by on here at least the lunatics have taken over the asylum.

If Alex Salmond had still been in charge, I am fairly confident that we would have had a referendum (one way or another) by now. He wanted to do it before we leave the EU. That doesn't look like it's going to be possible now.

Personally, I am a bit of a fence sitter on this one. Lots of risks either way. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Yes I agree with that summary.

I am in the first group of wait until polls are repeatedly in favour of a Yes vote. However, it is not as simple and easy as that. Right now the EU issue is a clear fundamental change in circumstance and a clear move against Scotland's wishes. If we don't stand up and call for a indyref at this point then wait four or five years and then ask will it be easily refused because there is no call for it (as there is now). I mean unionists would say that if you never called for an indyref over such a massive issue as EU exit then why now?

Change of circumstances is irrelevant if the polls or any other way of measuring public opinion doesn’t show an increase in support for indy.

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7 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Maybe i have been following Peter Bell on twatter for too long but you should consider his reasoning why if we wait too long it's over 

http://indyref2.scot/the-pros-and-cons-of-nicola-sturgeons-indyref-strategy

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2 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Change of circumstances is irrelevant if the polls or any other way of measuring public opinion doesn’t show an increase in support for indy.

Yes I totally agree but still we are in a quandary. Sit tight and hold on for polls to show a positive outcome for Yes would be ideal and right thing to do. But if we sit tight and allow Brexit to take place and people feel if they can live through that then fine and independence may be even harder to achieve or convince Westminster to even allow a referendum.

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9 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Change of circumstances is irrelevant if the polls or any other way of measuring public opinion doesn’t show an increase in support for indy.

 

4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Yes I totally agree but still we are in a quandary. Sit tight and hold on for polls to show a positive outcome for Yes would be ideal and right thing to do. But if we sit tight and allow Brexit to take place and people feel if they can live through that then fine and independence may be even harder to achieve or convince Westminster to even allow a referendum.

Sturgeon has said repeatedly that the people of Scotland will be given a choice once the terms of Brexit are known - and regardless of the polls which as we all know can be manipulated 

(The day of the Brexit Referendum showed Remain would poll 52-55% in most polls)

 

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3 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Change of circumstances is irrelevant if the polls or any other way of measuring public opinion doesn’t show an increase in support for indy.

There is a very valid argument that there is a moral responsibility to allow the people of Scotland to decide which Union is more important to them. The EU or the UK. We voted to stay in both. That is the one option which the Westminster government, and official opposition, have ensured we cannot have. Let the people of Scotland decide and then deal with the decision.

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2 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Change of circumstances is irrelevant if the polls or any other way of measuring public opinion doesn’t show an increase in support for indy.

That's an undeniable fact.  I'd argue though that the material change in circumstances only become apparent once Brexit actually happens.    At this stage, with less than two months to go its still not clear whether we will actually leave on the 29th March and if we do what that will look like.  

To me, the argument is pretty straightforwards as to the arguments over if and when there should be a second referendum, wrt to what sort of Brexit happens.

It it's a very hard brexit, or a complete crash out, then pretty much everyone will be impacted to some significant degree or other.   In that case, you can probably justify calling a referendum in the short term but I'd argue that that it would make it more difficult to win one.   In the same way that even soft Unionists in Northern Ireland are considering a United Ireland in the case of a hard border, I can see the thought of a hard border between England and Scotland being a barrier to getting people to vote Yes.

If it's a very soft Brexit - like the form that is being put forward by Labour - something essentially akin to being in the EEA, then for most people it will have a small impact on their day to day lives.  It probably pushes any timescale for an IndyRef2 back - as I doubt there would be immediate popular support - but I'd argue that it would make it easier to actually win one.   The reason being that it really removes any arguments over internal borders within Great Britain.

 

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10 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

Sturgeon has said repeatedly that the people of Scotland will be given a choice once the terms of Brexit are known - and regardless of the polls which as we all know can be manipulated 

(The day of the Brexit Referendum showed Remain would poll 52-55% in most polls)

 

Of course but there’s no margin or error anymore, need to nail the next referendum or it’s most definitely settled for a generation 

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4 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Of course but there’s no margin or error anymore, need to nail the next referendum or it’s most definitely settled for a generation 

How long is a generation?

If we don't have a referendum over brexit then it is probably "settled for a generation" anyway. 

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