Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[thplinth]

27 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

There is a very valid argument that there is a moral responsibility to allow the people of Scotland to decide which Union is more important to them. The EU or the UK. We voted to stay in both. That is the one option which the Westminster government, and official opposition, have ensured we cannot have. Let the people of Scotland decide and then deal with the decision.

Moral argument my arse. If you lose a second ref it is over, no way people will want nor stomach a third. This is the last chance saloon, lose it and you are fucked for at least 20 years + IMHO. So you only call it when you fucking know there is a decent sized majority in favour. Minimum 55% plus but ideally 60%+.

You do not need to fritter away our last shot at it to find out the answer to the EU or the UK. Just do private polling FFS - very large samples, over time, different methodologies, different polling firms until you are highly confident the support is there and it is lasting. Then call it, not a second before.

edit: And if by the time this BREXIT fiasco has really hit home there is not clear support for YES then it is over anyway  because if this does not drive people to independence I cannot see what ever will.

Edited February 7, 2019 by thplinth

[ParisInAKilt]

7 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

How long is a generation?

If we don't have a referendum over brexit then it is probably "settled for a generation" anyway. 

Not sure, don’t know why I used that word when I hated that term. Agree that it’s a matter of when and not if for the next referendum. Tough one, has to be an element of voter fatigue as well now

[phart]

12 hours ago, neilser said:

Whenever the next GE might be, I think I’ll have a different Tory candidate to not vote for...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/tory-mp-ross-thomson-accused-of-groping-men-in-commons-bar

 

I heard that on the Radio last night, wasn't sure if i caught it right. Away to twitter to see what folk are posting.

Folk keep posting this on his twitter.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by phart

[Orraloon]

21 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Moral argument my arse. If you lose a second ref it is over, no way people will want nor stomach a third. This is the last chance saloon, lose it and you are fucked for at least 20 years + IMHO. So you only call it when you fucking know there is a decent sized majority in favour. Minimum 55% plus but ideally 60%+.

You do not need to fritter away our last shot at it to find out the answer to the EU or the UK. Just do private polling FFS - very large samples, over time, different methodologies, different polling firms until you are highly confident the support is there and it is lasting. Then call it, not a second before.

edit: And if by the time this BREXIT fiasco has really hit home there is not clear support for YES then it is over anyway  because if this does not drive people to independence I cannot see what ever will.

The other side to that argument is that brexit might not turn out to be as bad as some folk are trying to tell us.

The "Go Early" folk want to capitalise of the fear of how bad brexit might be in the future. If we wait too long folk might end up thinking "Ach it's no that bad really".

I have always thought that neither brexit nor Independence would make that much difference to the live sof most people.

As I said earlier, I'm a fence sitter on this one. I can see both sides of the argument.

 

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, phart said:

I heard that on the Radio last night, wasn't sure if i caught it right. Away to twitter to see what folk are posting.

A lot of fairly amusing stuff when I looked - especially as Ross Thomson had put out a link to a survey asking his constituents what they thought the day before.

His ex-husband put a tweet up saying basically that this explains why they are no longer together which he had to delete as he was getting threatened by the lunatic fringe.

 

[Orraloon]

And, I don't trust opinion polls. Especially when they are telling you what you want to hear. I am a firm believer that they are designed to influence opinion rather than measure it.

[phart]

13 minutes ago, aaid said:

A lot of fairly amusing stuff when I looked - especially as Ross Thomson had put out a link to a survey asking his constituents what they thought the day before.

His ex-husband put a tweet up saying basically that this explains why they are no longer together which he had to delete as he was getting threatened by the lunatic fringe.

 

Yeah just catching up on it now.

In a way he is lucky it's men he did it on, as they seem much less likely to prosecute and would prefer just to forget about it.

A drunk MP groping female guests (coming back 4 times after being punted out 3) and then eventually having to get the police to remove him would occasion more uproar, it being done by another party member other than Tory would also be a bigger story.

I saw a picture of his ex-husbands tweet, but didn't know if it was genuine or not.

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, phart said:

Yeah just catching up on it now.

In a way he is lucky it's men he did it on, as they seem much less likely to prosecute and would prefer just to forget about it.

A drunk MP groping female guests (coming back 4 times after being punted out 3) and then eventually having to get the police to remove him would occasion more uproar, it being done by another party member other than Tory would also be a bigger story.

I saw a picture of his ex-husbands tweet, but didn't know if it was genuine or not.

I believe it was a genuine tweet.  Some suggestion that the groped have been "persuaded" by Tory whips not to pursue it, no idea if that's true or not. 

[PapofGlencoe]

2 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Change of circumstances is irrelevant if the polls or any other way of measuring public opinion doesn’t show an increase in support for indy.

there wont be any major swings in polls either way until a vote is called though.

in my view.

[Alibi]

The media coverage of Thomson''s activities has been appalling - BBC Scotland referred to it as a "bar incident".  What is said to have occurred was clearly sexual assault, and there appear to have been witnesses.  With Salmond, the story (and that one is allegations by anonymous women) have been front page news for weeks.  Double standards when it comes to yoons.  As for their attempts to excuse Thomson by claiming he is stressed, FF.  Do they really expect the public to fail to notice the double standards.  Let's hope one of Thomson's victims makes an official complaint - although I expect they have already been threatened to get them to say nothing.

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, Alibi said:

The media coverage of Thomson''s activities has been appalling - BBC Scotland referred to it as a "bar incident".  What is said to have occurred was clearly sexual assault, and there appear to have been witnesses.  With Salmond, the story (and that one is allegations by anonymous women) have been front page news for weeks.  Double standards when it comes to yoons.  As for their attempts to excuse Thomson by claiming he is stressed, FF.  Do they really expect the public to fail to notice the double standards.  Let's hope one of Thomson's victims makes an official complaint - although I expect they have already been threatened to get them to say nothing.

While I agree with you about the double standards, I don't think that Salmond is a fair comparison.  Salmond is a vastly more higher profile and important figure than Ross Thomson and it is a much bigger story.

A fairer comparison would be with either Mark McDonald or Michelle Thomson and - so far - the media coverage has come nowhere near close to the level in those two cases, even though the allegations in Ross Thomson's case - which don't seem to have been denied so far - are much more serious.

 

[phart]

I don't think threatened would be the right word, they're probably friends of conservative members so easier to appeal for them to drop it.

[PapofGlencoe]

the guy's front page of the record and all over the news.  hardly been swept under the carpet.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

13 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Judging from what i've read on twitter over the last few months, it seems like the age-old 'fundamentalist' versus 'gradualist' split within the SNP/Yes movement is beginning to emerge.

On the fundamentalist side, you have those that believe Sturgeon should "use the mandate" immediately. They want her to request a section 30 order to enable her to hold a legally binding referendum (like 2014) - and when it's inevitably denied (and it will be) - would push for the Scottish parliament to hold a consultative referendum. That referendum would be boycotted by the unionists (delivering a 90% Yes vote), and present the SNP with a Catalan dilemma - respect the vote and declare independence 'illegally' - (and the British supreme court, along with foreign capitals, will decide it's illegal) - or baulk and forever divide the Yes movement, possibly beyond repair.

The gradualist side recognise the long game, and the importance of timing. While Brexit provides legitimate grounds for Indyref2, they are aware that "politics is the art of the possible" (to quote an auld deid German statesman). Until the polls show support for another referendum (nevermind independence) they recognise the importance of maintaining political control of Scotland, and the furthering of the independence cause that that brings.

So, my fellow Yesser TAMBers...which side are you on? 

Use the mandate summer 2020

[hampden_loon2878]

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

If Alex Salmond had still been in charge, I am fairly confident that we would have had a referendum (one way or another) by now. He wanted to do it before we leave the EU. That doesn't look like it's going to be possible now.

Personally, I am a bit of a fence sitter on this one. Lots of risks either way. 

 

Than we would have lost that referendum 

[Orraloon]

11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Use the mandate summer 2020

What's your reasoning behind that? I'm not disagreeing with you, just interested in the logic behind it.

[Orraloon]

11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Than we would have lost that referendum 

Mibees aye, mibees naw? We will never know now.

[phart]

40 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

the guy's front page of the record and all over the news.  hardly been swept under the carpet.

 

look how the BBC cover it.

here's the headline

"

Ross Thomson: Allegations against Tory MP 'unacceptable'

 

Here's how it reads inside.

The alleged behaviour of a Scottish Conservative MP in a bar was "completely unacceptable", the party's deputy leader has said.

That headline could be misread.

[aaid]

52 minutes ago, phart said:

look how the BBC cover it.

here's the headline

"

Ross Thomson: Allegations against Tory MP 'unacceptable'

 

Here's how it reads inside.

The alleged behaviour of a Scottish Conservative MP in a bar was "completely unacceptable", the party's deputy leader has said.

That headline could be misread.

You obviously weren't the only one that noticed it - it's now been changed to "Alleged behaviour of Tory MP 'unacceptable'"

[phart]

4 minutes ago, aaid said:

You obviously weren't the only one that noticed it - it's now been changed to "Alleged behaviour of Tory MP 'unacceptable'"

 

Least they fixed it.

[Ally Bongo]

Ammo for Scotty CTA

[weekevie04]

Didn't realise they were referees too along with fellow north Brit, Douglas Ross. 

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

What's your reasoning behind that? I'm not disagreeing with you, just interested in the logic behind it.

 

it gives penty of time to see the path which brexit will lead us down, if the snp are correct and it ends up a shambles then folk will realise that the snp weren’t just using grievence politics and were right. I also think the longer between votes the better as the public are sick of politics at the moment. There has been a swing of no/pro europe to the yes movement and a shift of yes brexiteirs to no. We need to retain the previous no voters and win back yes voters wavering due to Brexit. 

if westminster denies a referendum it will give the snp a massive push leading up to the holyrood election, make it al about independence.

 

 

[thplinth]

5 hours ago, Orraloon said:

The other side to that argument is that brexit might not turn out to be as bad as some folk are trying to tell us.

The "Go Early" folk want to capitalise of the fear of how bad brexit might be in the future. If we wait too long folk might end up thinking "Ach it's no that bad really".

I have always thought that neither brexit nor Independence would make that much difference to the live sof most people.

As I said earlier, I'm a fence sitter on this one. I can see both sides of the argument.

 

BREXIT is going to be bad. We are starting to see it now but it is just in its infancy. This is way too soon. We are now going to have to wait for about 3-5 years for this to really become noticeable to the Scottish electorate. There will be a real economic nadir at some point where folk realize the mistake they have made. Only when that point is reached would I start to go for it. When things are at their darkest. That is when to pin your hopes on the dawn.

[thplinth]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

Ammo for Scotty CTA

So what rank is he from the handshake?

There are few politicians out there that set off my 'dangerous psycho meter' like Mr Gove. He is a 100% wrong un. Real bad news. 10Xworse than Tony Blair in the making. 

You will see 'them' return again and again to promote him into the PM job somehow.

Fortunately he is very dislikeable to even his colleagues. The only reason he is not PM by now. I recall Malcom Rifkind was it getting caught on mic saying he wanted anyone but GOve as leader after he back stabbed Boris. But give it time and he will be reinvented... Bad news.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by thplinth