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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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8 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

There won’t be a one this year as parliament don’t vote on the brexit deal until mid December however there’s sure to be one early spring 

 

7 minutes ago, stocky said:

where are you hearing this?   or just a hunch...

i dont think so....  

they will fudge it till March then a new Tory leader will take over, no election IMO

 

Hunch

If she doesn't gets the deal through Cabinet tomorrow (meeting them all individually tonight) then it will be defeated in Parliament and she will need to stand down

Look at Boris's comments tonight amongst others

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28 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

Hunch

If she doesn't gets the deal through Cabinet tomorrow (meeting them all individually tonight) then it will be defeated in Parliament and she will need to stand down

Look at Boris's comments tonight amongst others

JRM doesnt sound promising , this situation is not improving. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1062397090326867969?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

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The Tories have already committed suicide

All that's left is the coup de grace

Could be anytime and with no deal Brexit fast approaching anything is possible

 

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I assume that's a No Confidence from Tory MPs in respect of May as leader rather than anNo Confodence motion from the opposition in resent of the government.  

They're two very different things and FWIW, I think she'd survive both. 

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11 hours ago, aaid said:

I assume that's a No Confidence from Tory MPs in respect of May as leader rather than anNo Confodence motion from the opposition in resent of the government.  

They're two very different things and FWIW, I think she'd survive both. 

I can't see her surviving a vote of no confidence if Tory MPs call it. Almost the entire opposition would support it and those Tory MPs would effectively decide the outcome.

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56 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

I can't see her surviving a vote of no confidence if Tory MPs call it. Almost the entire opposition would support it and those Tory MPs would effectively decide the outcome.

Two things that seem to be getting confused here.

1. Vote of no confidence in her as Tory leader, triggered by 48 letters for Tory MPs going in to the 1922 committee.  This is an internal Tory party process and only Tory MPs get to vote.  If she survives that - and she needs a majority of Tory MPs, around 150 to do so, she's safe and can't be challenged for another 12 months.  If she loses then there will be a election within the Tory party, who will de facto be the new PM.  No need for a general election although pressure would build to have one.

2. Vote of no confidence in the government.  This is a vote in parliament by all MPs and only requires a simple majority.  The government then has two weeks and then there is a follow up vote and if they lose that the government falls and there will be a general election.

I can see 1. Happening but think she'd have enough support to survive.   I can see 2. Happening as well but also don't think it'll succeed as despite them being extremely pissed off I don't think the Tory rebels and the DUP would bring the government down as both of them would see a Corbyn-led government as being a lot worse than the current shambles 

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8 minutes ago, aaid said:

Two things that seem to be getting confused here.

1. Vote of no confidence in her as Tory leader, triggered by 48 letters for Tory MPs going in to the 1922 committee.  This is an internal Tory party process and only Tory MPs get to vote.  If she survives that - and she needs a majority of Tory MPs, around 150 to do so, she's safe and can't be challenged for another 12 months.  If she loses then there will be a election within the Tory party, who will de facto be the new PM.  No need for a general election although pressure would build to have one.

2. Vote of no confidence in the government.  This is a vote in parliament by all MPs and only requires a simple majority.  The government then has two weeks and then there is a follow up vote and if they lose that the government falls and there will be a general election.

I can see 1. Happening but think she'd have enough support to survive.   I can see 2. Happening as well but also don't think it'll succeed as despite them being extremely pissed off I don't think the Tory rebels and the DUP would bring the government down as both of them would see a Corbyn-led government as being a lot worse than the current shambles 

I see. Both are possible, but one is probably more likely. Two could still happen, but not lead to a general election - as a vote of no confidence in the government only requires the government to resign. A new government could be formed by a new Conservative leader, in theory, following that.

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21 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

I see. Both are possible, but one is probably more likely. Two could still happen, but not lead to a general election - as a vote of no confidence in the government only requires the government to resign. A new government could be formed by a new Conservative leader, in theory, following that.

Theoretically possible but not practially so.   The scenario you're painting is one where a new Tory government could be formed out of the current parliament that would "command the confidence of the house".   In that case they'd probably win the second vote - the two week window is designed to allow the government to address whatever issues led to them losing the first vote.   It's hard to see how that would happen but it would depend on the numbers.   

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  • 2 months later...
34 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Rumours of another GE in june, this would not surprise me at all, snp sole policy independence? I fear for some of our mp’s tbh

Labour and the Tories passing the buck because they know that whatever happens with brexit half the country or worse won’t be happy. 

Best SNP can do is to claim to focus on representing all of Scotland and stay well clear of brexit and another Indy referendum 

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I think the horse bolted on a GE anytime in the next couple of months. Why would there be with the Brexit mess in the forefront? I think the time to announce one would have been after May's Deal was rejected by a huge amount. She could have called one then for a GE around now in the hope of increasing her majority (as Labour themselves are in turmoil) and having the numbers to push through May's Deal Mark 2. That ship has now sailed though.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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On 2/3/2019 at 9:52 AM, ParisInAKilt said:

Labour and the Tories passing the buck because they know that whatever happens with brexit half the country or worse won’t be happy. 

Best SNP can do is to claim to focus on representing all of Scotland and stay well clear of brexit and another Indy referendum 

if the snp don't talk about independence given this mess, i won't be voting for them.  And i'm not a rabid nat either champing at the bit for a vote but sometimes you have to state your case and be damned.  utterly bored of politics now.

if its the SNP simply saying "standing up for Scotland" again with no other policy like 2016(?) i'll hardly be able to lift my eyelids to find them on the ballot box never mind put a cross there.

Edited by PapofGlencoe
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