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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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56 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Sure, but it's the 6000 i'm more concerned about.  The Yes/Corbyn people are sympathetic.  The 6000 are scorned/bored/apathetic/angry.  Real problems here.

5000 less folk voted in 2017 than in 2015. I think that election results are often more about who didn't vote than who changed sides. When they talk about swings it sometimes gets mistaken for SNP voters changing their minds and voting Tory instead, but in reality it's more about which voters were more motivated to get out and vote. In 2015 the Tories had no chance of winning so a lot of them will have stayed at home. This time round they were favorites, especially with the help of the friendly Lib Dims.

Salmond wasn't really expected to win in 2015. But YES voters were very motivated to vote for him.

And don't forget that it pished doon most of the day which tends to benefit the Tories.

Even Alex can't control the weather.

 

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1 minute ago, Orraloon said:

5000 less folk voted in 2017 than in 2015. I think that election results are often more about who didn't vote than who changed sides. When they talk about swings it sometimes gets mistaken for SNP voters changing their minds and voting Tory instead, but in reality it's more about which voters were more motivated to get out and vote. In 2015 the Tories had no chance of winning so a lot of them will have stayed at home. This time round they were favorites, especially with the help of the friendly Lib Dims.

Salmond wasn't really expected to win in 2015. But YES voters were very motivated to vote for him.

And don't forget that it pished doon most of the day which tends to benefit the Tories.

Even Alex can't control the weather.

 

I think this is part of it, but not the whole story. 

btw - My Dad controls the weather in Scotland.

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About 3000 of Salmond's 2015 votes probably went back to Labour. Let's face it, Kirsten Muat:wub: v Braden Davy - I'm surprised she didn't get more, to be honest.

Anyway, to me it's fairly obvious that it was Salmond's victory in 2015 that was the unusual result, not the 2017 result.

 

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I know folk who voted SNP/Salmond in 2015 and voted Conservative in 2017 (including my mother)

lot of folk pissed off in aberdeenshire about the upping of council tax, and money going to central belt - higher % of houses in Aberdeenshire being hit with council tax rises 

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4 minutes ago, euan2020 said:

I know folk who voted SNP/Salmond in 2015 and voted Conservative in 2017 (including my mother)

lot of folk pissed off in aberdeenshire about the upping of council tax, and money going to central belt - higher % of houses in Aberdeenshire being hit with council tax rises 

Aye, if you back 20 to 30 years the Tories regularly got over 25% of the votes. A lot of those folk will still be alive, so some of them would be quite happy to go back to voting Tory. Over 8000 folk who voted for Salmond last time didn't vote for him this time. There could be over 8000 slightly different reasons why they did that.

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I think the Media all being anti SNP as well pushes the story 

everyone is always saying Sturgeon never stops on about Inde Ref, and for me its the opposite  - its the other parties - but Media plays SNP line and folk who are non political, and who don't pay attention,  lap it up 

 

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2 minutes ago, euan2020 said:

I think the Media all being anti SNP as well pushes the story 

everyone is always saying Sturgeon never stops on about Inde Ref, and for me its the opposite  - its the other parties - but Media plays SNP line and folk who are non political, and who don't pay attention,  lap it up 

 

Some folk are now saying that it is precisely because she didn't mention Independence enough that the SNP lost votes. It's a complicated business this, getting folk to vote for you, lark.

Sometimes I think politicians tend to overthink things instead of just standing up for what they believe.

 

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6 hours ago, Orraloon said:

5000 less folk voted in 2017 than in 2015. I think that election results are often more about who didn't vote than who changed sides. When they talk about swings it sometimes gets mistaken for SNP voters changing their minds and voting Tory instead, but in reality it's more about which voters were more motivated to get out and vote. In 2015 the Tories had no chance of winning so a lot of them will have stayed at home. This time round they were favorites, especially with the help of the friendly Lib Dims.

Salmond wasn't really expected to win in 2015. But YES voters were very motivated to vote for him.

And don't forget that it pished doon most of the day which tends to benefit the Tories.

Even Alex can't control the weather.

 

remember in 2015 there was a lot of guilty no voters who also voted for the snp,, probably about 3/5% is my guess,,then take brexit which isolated a good number of snp/leave voters, then there is snp/remain voters who was think the constant indyref2 pushed on everyone by the  msm sickened many,,,and then there will have been a slight loss on everyday policies,,,all are voters who could be won back but the snp better get their act together which i have repeatedly emphasised over the last six months  

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On 15/06/2017 at 0:10 AM, Ally Bongo said:

Someone made a good point a few days ago on twatter which i also think is true

It was that part of the SNP setback is that they have been way ahead of the public's awareness on what Brexit will really mean

Day 1

 

David Davis confirms Britain will be leaving the customs union

 

DCs_bRQXoAASTVw.jpg

 

Edited by Ally Bongo
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The magic money tree finds a nice round £1 billion extra to give to the DUP which will have no consequences to Barnett

Wonder how much of that £1 billion will come from Scotland

It's things like this that make me despise Scottish Unionists/ British Nationalists with every fibre of my soul 

Totally indefensible

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5 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

The magic money tree finds a nice round £1 billion extra to give to the DUP

To be more precise it's being given to the whole of Northern Ireland.

But yeah, well played DUP. Shame on the twats who tactically voted for more Tory MPs up here.

Edited by Toepoke
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What a shambolic bunch this Tory government are , one billion to the Irish loyalists for propping up a failed Prime minister who now takes us into Brexit talks with the Europeans who are rubbing there hands at the prospect of negotiating with a Uk government that does not have the full backing of its own people.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

The magic money tree finds a nice round £1 billion extra to give to the DUP which will have no consequences to Barnett

Wonder how much of that £1 billion will come from Scotland

It's things like this that make me despise Scottish Unionists/ British Nationalists with every fibre of my soul 

Totally indefensible

Where did you read it has no consequences to Barnett?

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8 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Where did you read it has no consequences to Barnett?

apparently will be treated like a city specific investment - not a country investment and therefore outside of Barnett calcs.  its scandalous.

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1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

The magic money tree finds a nice round £1 billion extra to give to the DUP which will have no consequences to Barnett

Wonder how much of that £1 billion will come from Scotland

It's things like this that make me despise Scottish Unionists/ British Nationalists with every fibre of my soul 

Totally indefensible

Mundell is on record promising that if NI got money then Scotland would too. wonder if he and Ruthie will fight Scotland corner on this like they say they do? or just another U-turn again. they really are detestable.

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Mundell is an odious wee gobshite and should resign for a lot of things, but in this particular case for telling a blatant lie about the Barnett consequentials.  Although it has been suggested that the whole thing has been done this way to set up Colonel Ruth to wade in and win that money for Scotland.  Wouldn't put it past the Tories to try that particular bit of political theatre.

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i don't understand how it could be Barnett.

Northern Ireland isn't treated as UK Government department.

It's not how it works.

We just get a population x devolved attribute share of any up or down for an UK(English) department.  One of the bizarre things about how our services are funded - completely reliant on the needs or otherwise of the English department in question rather than ours. 

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Scottish Tories are being aided by STV and BBC in their attempt to spin a way out of it

Predictably i should add

 

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33 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

by the way, whatever else the DUP are they've only gone and got a great deal for NI.

1billion extra would be decent for us and they're smaller than us.

Aye works out at over 500 quid a head for them...

 

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