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With Celtic's elimination from the Champions League, Scotland will not benefit from the additional country ranking point that it would receive from having a side in the group stages. This has, in recent years, kept Scotland from falling further behind comparable nations in the coefficient rankings - used to calculated the number of European places each country receives and what round they start. I said on one of the qualification threads that it was vital for Scotland to have a team in the Champions League group stages to benefit from these bonus points, but, after having a look at the calculation, I'm not so sure. It's possible that Celtic's earlier elimination from the Champions League will benefit Scotland's coefficient. Assuming Celtic beat the Baltic team that they will play in the play-off round of the Europa League, Scotland will have a minimum of 3.375 points going into the Europa League group stages. In the group stages, of both the CL & EL, countries (with four teams) receive 0.5 points for winning and 0.25 points for drawing matches. Therefore to make up the lost bonus point, they would have to win two matches. In the past two years, Celtic have obtained an average of 1.625 (for Scotland) from the CL group stages; three wins and a draw is required in the EL group stages to better this. Should Celtic reach the group stages of the Europa League, they will be in Pot 2*. This will mean that Celtic will avoid a number of the bigger sides in the competition, such as Milan, Marseille and Fenerbahce, increasing their chances of winning matches. A group of Anderlecht, Celtic, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Midtjylland (as an example) looks passable for Celtic, with all games winnable on paper, unlike any Champions League group Celtic could've received. It appears then, that our best chance of increasing the coefficient in future seasons will come from the Europa League - with our national champions' Champions League group stage appearances probably being a negative for our points. Of course, that's without even looking at Rangers and Hibernian, this season. Rangers are in a good position to progress to the play-off round and would play either Ufa or Progres, both of which are winnable games (unless they get Pedro back 😉). Hibs won't be favourites going into their game against Molde, but a clean sheet at home may be enough if they can get a goal. Their potential reward appears to be Dinamo Minsk (who are 4-0 up over Zenit - somehow?), which on paper seems winnable too. It's not currently, inconceivable that we could have three teams in the group stages of the Europa League, but it will be very unlikely to actually happen. Scotland's potential coefficient (2018-19 season) as of 15 August: At present: 3.125 (-0.125 on 2013-14) If Celtic reach group stage of EL: +0.250/+0.500 (min/max) If Rangers or Hibs reach group stage: +0.375/+0.750 (min/max) If all reach group stage: +1.000/+2.000 (min/max) *Celtic will be in Pot 1 if three of Sevilla, Zenit, Basel, Besiktas, Olympiacos, Ludogorets and Copenhagen fail to reach the group stage. Red Bull Salzburg and PSV Eindhoven are the only teams still in the Champions League qualifiers that have a higher coefficient than Celtic.
https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/about-uefa/news/newsid=2585829.html UEFA are going to introduce a third club competition in for the 2021-22 season. It appears that our (three) clubs will play in this competition instead of the Europa League - https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/uefaorg/General/02/58/61/42/2586142_DOWNLOAD.pdf