mrniaboc

Mate, if my presence on this board is so offensive to you I am indeed inclined to leave, but I must say I'm a little confused as to why you're reacting like this. Since I joined this board I have been open about who I am and why I'm here, and it's not to be a troll. I joined this community due to my love of the Scotland National Team and because I live down south. I wanted anplace where I could talk to like-minded people and I found it on the TAMB. Look at my profile and posts across the TAMB and you'll see I'm generally positive and prepared to stick to the discussion topic. I'm not the troll here.

Offence taken.

Listen, I don't go to any measures to hide who I am on here, and that's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. Apologies for posting a lot of messages, but they were on the topic of the fucking thread, so calm the fuck down with the telling me to fuck off and calling me a cunt, eh?

It's a London pub, so I'm afraid those things aren't optional.

The words you're looking for are 'Dunning-Kruger effect'. Also, I just said I'd love to hear what their strategy is (as it would be educational), not that I thought they were wrong. Scientists are always right, trust me. Anyway, I should get back to my science before the pub...

Hahahaha. I'm aff tae the pub... efter!

Real friendly atmosphere in here today. Enjoy your Friday everyone!

That's fair enough. I honestly did intend it to be taken as a serious study. I should maybe have left off the bit at the end about the science chief's estimates. That said, I'd love to hear what sampling strategy they are using just now because, as you evidently know, just basing it confirmations of infection and people reporting illness is as deeply flawed as my approach haha. I wonder if they are randomly testing people across London?

It wasn't that far over, I just prefer the style of discussion that's like "You've included some assumptions there that have a real effect on your final outcome. What you could have done is this... what you could have said is that..." You know, constructive feedback? Instead you are often just like "YOU ARE WRONG! YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND ANYTHING! WHY ARE YOU SO SHIT?" I guess this is an internet forum though. I shouldn't expect anything different.

Take it easy dude. Why are you so confrontational? Why do things get you so worked up on here? Didn't you put out an impassioned plea the other day for people to be nice to each other? Happiness is good for the immune system [citation needed].

They look angry too!

Hahaha do you actually think I'm TDK/Chripper? I always told him he was paranoid for thinking that, and that you were bamming him up.

Now that's a lot better than your first response! I hope you do this with your students more often than just responding "What are you playing at?" These three points are all exactly on the money, but let me see if I can addresses them to explain why I did this (as a fun experiment, not a rigorous study): 1) 100% true, but I don't have the capability or means to gather my own data directly from the population. Therefore I chose an online dataset I figured would have a high completeness of reporting cases. 2) Absolutely, but again I don't have the means to test another sample of Londoners. This is the dataset I have. 3) I like it a lot that you picked up on this one. I should definitely try thinking about a possible sample, that I can get reliable data for, where I do not already know the reported infections. You should defs set this as a question for your students, but you should also set this question at the same time: Assuming all you know about coronavirus infection numbers is that Mikel Arteta and Calum Hudson-Odoi have it, how many people in London would you estimate are infected? Makes a fun Fermi estimation question at least.

Hahaha. I'm in the group that likes to do back-of-the-envelope estimations that get some people very worked up.

Definitely can be considered a non-representitive sample for sure. But at the moment it's the only sample I have my hands on where I think all cases are being reported, and reported early. Also defs small number stats that I'm grafting to a large population, so the numbers have large error margins. But it was a fun thought experiment to do. Say 50% of footballers on london had covid. What estimate would you then make for the general London population? Thanks for giving better feedback than @dohadeer. Stats is fun.

Hahahaha now THAT'S a major misunderstanding of statistics. Small numbers for sure, but you'd be better says Hanks is 1 from X amount of Oscar winners, and basing your extrapolation on that percentage. What was better about my approach is that it's a geographically isolated sample.

Is it? Please do explain my major mis-step. I took a sample of the population who are regularly monitored for their health and also at a level of fame that means their ill health is reported, and showed that 1.3% of them is the fraction with coronavirus. I guess you could be arguing that professional footballers are more likely to contract the disease. But I can't see why at the moment?

Fair enough. I will too. But just pointing out what a quick sample shows. Ps: I do have another life off the TAMB

Lol

Some quick statistical sampling: Number of players + coaches of London EPL teams ~150 Of those there are 2 with confirmed covid 19 That's 1.3% London's population = 9 million Estimate of currently infected number in London therefore ~ 120,000 UK science chief reckons there could be up to 10,000 cases UK-wide. I reckon he could be wrong by at least an order of magnitude.

Dammit, I did actually have a doughnut today

I'm not a giant McBurnie fan, but I think it's worth pointing out here that he's only played 195 minutes of competitive football for Scotland. Some people seem to think he's been terrible in tons of matches for some reason? Also, his performances for Sheffield Utd haven't been that underwhelming. He might not be banging in the goals, but his link up play is excellent, and an EPL team pushing for Champions League football seem to be comfortable starting him in every game. They would tear recent Scotland teams to shreds btw.

I'm pretty sure that guy is the medical advisor to the Scottish parliament? So he probably has his finger on the pulse?

It's off to a great start! Unlike the 2007 maroon top...

Tbh I just really hope it gets played! Fingers crossed.