paper_lion

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the earliest we can mathematically qualify is the 11th September games (we don't play that night). (WIN) Scotland vs Georgia Norway vs Cyprus (WIN/DRAW) Cyprus vs Scotland (WIN) (WIN) Spain vs Georgia (WIN/DRAW) Norway vs Georgia (WIN/DRAW) Spain vs Cyprus Some of the results can be flipped around a bit but essentially if we win the next two and Spain beat Georgia, we just need the Norway vs Georgia and possibly the Spain vs Cyprus game to go the way we want. If Norway were to win tonight a draw for them vs Georgia would see us qualify too. Unlikely but not impossible.

They'll be the last to play so they'll know how many points/goals they need to get through.

I believe Croatia & Czech Republic were the first to sign up to base their teams in Scotland. Presumably because they automatically qualified they were able to get first dibs. I believe the Czechs took the Oriam one. Scotland then took Middlesborough/Darlington. Probably because it has better facilities than the 3rd best available in Scotland. Croatia & Czech Republic then changed their minds and decided to stay at home after UEFA warned them of what would happen to the squad in Scotland if they had positive cases. The Edinburgh and St.Andrews facilities will be sitting empty now. Presumably it would be too much hastle for Scotland to change their plans at such short notice.

I haven't seen much of Patterson tbh. If Patterson really was impressive up against Boril then that makes things more interesting.

Several people saying they want Patterson to start but does anyone think he actually will? To me it seems like there's a 0% chance of it actually happening. Assuming Hendry starts, are we really going into the first game of the Euro's with a RWB and RCB who have never been on the pitch together (in a match). Gilmour is the only one I think could maybe get into the team. Depends what's happening in training too. The covid issues make it difficult to read anything into the teams we put out over the last few games.

Can't see a retired player travelling across Europe during covid times but you never know. Getting players like Kara capped is probably a smart idea. I think he'd only have to play once for Austria to be ineligible for any other international teams since he's over 21. Think it only affects the Scotland game. Presumably they'll call-up around 35-40 players this month.

Agreed. This isn't quite as bad as the issues the Czechs had (it's not far off though).

I don't see how our 20-21 NL position lock us into any pot for the 2024 Euro qualifiers. Our final position in the 22-23 NL will affect the 2024 qualifiers though. That's what I meant by pot 1 for everyone up to the two best 3rd place teams i.e 1-10 in the overall ranking and pot 2 for 11-20 in the overall ranking. All the FIFA ranking numbers are just rough calculations. I get that it's impossible to tell exactly with the constant change in the ELO rankings, I was just wondering roughly what it would take to reach pot 2. I think wins in Serbia and Israel, with a draw in Slovakia would get us pretty close. Maybe 22-23 range is more likely where we'd end up with those results but 20th isn't out of the question imo. I read that Norway & Israel have a friendly planned. Also that Ireland were originally scheduled to face Bosnia & Herz. in Bosnia but are considering cancelling to play England at Wembley instead. I'm assuming that the Path A playoff losers Bulgaria and Romania will be lined up to play each other too.

Minimum pot 2. All the way down to the two best 3rd place teams in League A would presumably be pot 1. A lucky draw as a hypothetical League A team and you never know... ----------------------------------------- Looking at our FIFA ranking regarding pot 2. I think we were 60 odds points away from 20th place before the September games. We're now 21pts away. Stranger things have happened. Win our last 3 (not incl. penalties) and we're on 1472 Win our last 3 (incl. penalties) and we're on 1466 Win in Serbia (not incl. penalties) & 4pts from the other two and we're on 1464. I know these results sound unrealistic but so does 8 games unbeaten with 6/7 wins. I reckon these results could see us in pot 2 by fractions of a point: Scotland win in Serbia & 4pts from Slovakia/Israel Rep.Ireland max "3pts" from England or B&H friendly/Wales/Bulgaria Slovakia max "3pts" from N.Ireland/Scotland/Czech Iceland max "3pts" from Hungary/Denmark/England N.Ireland lose vs Slovakia (or win vs Slovakia and 1pt from Austria/Romania) Norway max "6pts" from Israel friendly/Romania/Austria Romania max "5pts" from Bulgaria friendly(?)/Norway/N.Ireland If someone else knows the points better than me (down to a couple of decimal places etc.) and can double check this that'd be great. Also probably worth saying getting to pot 2 isn't as important now that we're already staring the WC playoffs in the face via our NL group.

I think Win,Win, Draw, Draw guarantees winning the group on H2H. Realistically though that will never happen. Although, I'm not convinced the Czechs will have their full squad the rest of the way given how seriously their FA, clubs and government are taking individual cases among their staff. ~10pts could top the group if issues continue for them.

How many points save us from relegation or get us promoted? Around 6pts to be fairly confident of staying in League B and >11pts to even have a small chance of promotion maybe? Difficult to get a feel for the opposition given how odd the first two sets of fixtures were. Will we even get through all the games?

While the bottom of one pot and top of another can be fairly equal, this is different. Having a six game group decide whether we are pot 2 at worst/ pot 4 at best is massive. There's zero doubt being in pot 2 would make it easier to qualify than being pot 4.

I hope other countries are looking at the matches that way. With the realignment to 16 teams for leagues A/B/C, League B now presumably gives out #2, #3 and #4 seeds for Euro qualifying depending on where you finish in the group (or overall ranking to be more precise). Get relegated from this group and we're pot 4 at best for the 2024 Euro quali. We'll also have to contend with the ranking point loss that will inevitably bring. The Nations League is everything to us I'm afraid.

Don't know where to stick this news. Not important to us just now but might be next month. Slovakia having issues getting Hamsik into their squad. He's playing in China now and they won't let him travel for their games against Czech Republic & Israel. Rusnak, who's playing in the US, is a regular starter for them and having similar issues.

It was the Swiss authorities who stopped Drita from playing not UEFA. UEFA allow you to play if you have 13 players available. It'll come down to the local authorities in every country to decide the outcome if there's positive tests. If the neutral venue countries start bringing in rules similar to those in Switzerland then I think that will increase the number of forfeits a fair bit. Luckily for UEFA, I think Poland just got rid of the "one case, match off" rule. Not sure about the other 3 countries.