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9 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

We are relying very heavily on demographics.

One reason why I think this is a long game.  The average age in Scotland is increasing, and those living the longest tend to be the more affluent, who in turn are less in favour of independence.

 

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

One reason why I think this is a long game.  The average age in Scotland is increasing, and those living the longest tend to be the more affluent, who in turn are less in favour of independence.

 

There's a fundamental problem with relying on this though.   It's probably true to say that - generally speaking - people get more conservative - with a small 'c' and cautious as they get older.   With that in mind, is it a wrong to assume that the 50 year old Yes voter in 2014 won't be a 60 year old No voter in 2024?  And we have an aging population.

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8 minutes ago, aaid said:

There's a fundamental problem with relying on this though.   It's probably true to say that - generally speaking - people get more conservative - with a small 'c' and cautious as they get older.   With that in mind, is it a wrong to assume that the 50 year old Yes voter in 2014 won't be a 60 year old No voter in 2024?  And we have an aging population.

Agreed.

Need to address the barriers now 

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38 minutes ago, aaid said:

There's a fundamental problem with relying on this though.   It's probably true to say that - generally speaking - people get more conservative - with a small 'c' and cautious as they get older.   With that in mind, is it a wrong to assume that the 50 year old Yes voter in 2014 won't be a 60 year old No voter in 2024?  And we have an aging population.

Im not so sure about that... Once you have gone to yes, you realise that all the Lies the British State have told, you realise how corrupt the whole thing is, how its all geared for the rich and privileged,i think it would be impossible to go back.

It would be like an Atheist suddenly discovering that God etc is all true... 

Or an ex smoker going back to 60 a day...

There are always exceptions, however they are few, once a YES always a YES I think...

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

One reason why I think this is a long game.  The average age in Scotland is increasing, and those living the longest tend to be the more affluent, who in turn are less in favour of independence.

 

i dont necessarily think so , most older folk have an affection for the War, Beatles, Swinging 60's etc, a sense of Britishness.

Even folk in their 50's just now dont really have this...  they arent suddenly going to become more British just cos they have more cash..

they might become More conservative, mibee, but not anti YES...   

see post above

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I don't think many folk will change from the way they voted last time. A small number will change to YES and a small number will change to NO. But I think there will be very few on either/both sides and they won't make a significant difference.

We are relying very heavily on demographics. We need to try to make sure that the new young voters coming through continue to support YES in the 60 to 70% range. 

I don't think there is too much point in trying to persuade folk to "change their mind" about how they voted last time. It won't work, and that will just annoy them, and maybe spur them on to get off their erses and do something to help return a NO vote again.

The focus should be on the youngsters.

Another area where there could be room for some extra votes would be to focus on the 15% of registered voters who didn't bother to vote last time. There are many, many reasons why fok didn't vote. Talking to them about why they didn't vote could be beneficial. Of course, you need to find them first.

There are still a significant number of folk who are not on the electoral register, for a variety of reasons. There could be a wee bit of mileage in them as well. 

There was a poll done about this, and you are correct, even if yes changed the minds of 10% , of the over 65's its really a very small number of voters, and a lot of work 

the easiest way , the poll said was to engage the non engaged and the could nae be bothered. 

I cant remember what poll or where i read it, but it was very interesting 

where should we concentrate our efforts sort of thing...

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7 minutes ago, stocky said:

 

It would be like an Atheist suddenly discovering that God etc is all true...

Best to cover off all bases, just in case, in that situation. 

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29 minutes ago, stocky said:

i dont necessarily think so , most older folk have an affection for the War, Beatles, Swinging 60's etc, a sense of Britishness.

Even folk in their 50's just now dont really have this...  they arent suddenly going to become more British just cos they have more cash..

they might become More conservative, mibee, but not anti YES...   

see post above

I agree, although I was thinking more of the large slice of the population currently in their 60s to 90s who would have a major bearing on a referendum held in the near future.

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1 hour ago, stocky said:

There was a poll done about this, and you are correct, even if yes changed the minds of 10% , of the over 65's its really a very small number of voters, and a lot of work 

the easiest way , the poll said was to engage the non engaged and the could nae be bothered. 

I cant remember what poll or where i read it, but it was very interesting 

where should we concentrate our efforts sort of thing...

Yes I agree and posted something pretty much identical a few days ago.

People now in their 50s were the first to savour life under Thatcher's Tory government. They would have been taking their first steps into the world of employment when employment stood at over 3 million and Thatcher's Tories were implementing the poll tax and closing down coal mines, steelworks and shipyards. Those sort of experiences stick with people throughout their lives. I cannot see many of that generation backing Thatcher's sister May to stay in the union. 

Part of me thinks maybe try a new tactic. It seems a heck of a lot of Scotland supports devolution (I think I saw figures suggesting 80% support for it) so why not say it is either independence or we give up devolution as it does not work. Would more people then vote Yes?

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29 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

People now in their 50s were the first to savour life under Thatcher's Tory government. They would have been taking their first steps into the world of employment when employment stood at over 3 million and Thatcher's Tories were implementing the poll tax and closing down coal mines, steelworks and shipyards. Those sort of experiences stick with people throughout their lives. I cannot see many of that generation backing Thatcher's sister May to stay in the union. 

Those idiots around Ravenscraig blew that out of the water recently. 

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2 hours ago, stocky said:

There was a poll done about this, and you are correct, even if yes changed the minds of 10% , of the over 65's its really a very small number of voters, and a lot of work 

the easiest way , the poll said was to engage the non engaged and the could nae be bothered. 

I cant remember what poll or where i read it, but it was very interesting 

where should we concentrate our efforts sort of thing...

That is interesting,. I felt it was worth engaging with older folk as such a large percentage of them voted No, I assumed ( wrongly it would seem) that this age group would provide a reasonable amount of people.  

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1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

That is interesting,. I felt it was worth engaging with older folk as such a large percentage of them voted No, I assumed ( wrongly it would seem) that this age group would provide a reasonable amount of people.  

19% are 65 and over, although they equate to around a quarter of the electorate...

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/PopulationMigration

 

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

19% are 65 and over, although they equate to around a quarter of the electorate...

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/PopulationMigration

 

a quarter of the electorate @1m people, to change the minds of 10 % of them is 100,000. a lot of work on a hard no demographic, not enough/major change to yes/no

The turnout in Glasgow ( lanarkshire) and Dundee was around 70%?  population combined @1.5 million, so @500000 non voters...and to engage 30% of them would bring in something like 150000 -  200000 voters,

Yes only needed 192000 no-yes last time. 

The easiest way is to educate and engage the no voter.  

And we know if you are educated Politically, you are a YES voter.

 

Dont quote me on any of these figures . its what i remember from that poll...

i will look and see what i can find...

 

 

 

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this might be similar but not exactly what im looking for but i have found this from Commonweal...

Key points in ‘The Demographics of Independence’ include:

  • Age remains a very strong correlator of voting intention. Voters aged 16-41 are more likely than not to vote Yes whereas voters above 41 are more likely to vote No.
  • A significant rural/urban split has been identified. Council areas with a higher population density were significantly more likely to vote Yes than council areas with lower population density.
  • Since 2014 there has been a steady decline in support for independence amongst SNP voters, particularly since “Brexit”. This decline has been largely counterbalanced by an increase in support amongst Labour, Liberal Democrat and (marginally) Conservative voters.
  • Since 2014 there has been a steady decline in support for independence among voters within the C2DE social grades. The ABC1 social bracket has been largely static.
  • Gender and age will prove important. Voters of both genders who are aged 16 to 25 years old display a consistent increasingly pro-independence trend. Males aged 25-55 are trending slightly downwards whereas the trend in males aged 55+ is static. Since the Brexit vote, support for independence amongst females aged 55+ has fallen precipitously from 37% to 22%. All other female age groups show a rising trend in support for independence.
  • The biggest increases in support for independence are likely to be found in lower income groups. If independence support from those earning £45k+ was raised from the 2014 result of 34% to the average of 45%, the vote gap would reduce by less than 120,000. For the £25-45k income group, raising support from 36% to 45% would reduce the vote gap by over 180,000. For those from £0-25k, an increase of support for independence by 5% would close the vote gap by 400,000, more than the 380,000 vote gap in the 2014 referendum.
  • Given the disparate nature of the various segments of the Scottish voting population an independence campaign based on targeting any one group or based on the political ideology of any one party would be highly unlikely to succeed. Conversely, housing for the elderly, well-located within communities, and occupancies and second homes, would help.

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