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1 hour ago, Alibi said:

Anyone hear Richard Leonard getting torn to shreds on GMS this morning?  Almost felt sorry for him.  He really is clueless on almost everything.  Corbyn had repeated his (disingenuous) claim that if you are not in the EU you can't be in the single market, and despite Gary Robertson telling him that that was a direct quote from Corbyn, Leonard tried to weasel his way out of it.  the rest of the interview was similarly car crash level of idiocy.  Leonard is the worst "leader" so far and the bar certainly hasn't been set terribly high before now.  Where do they dig up these clowns?  Can't see him lasting beyond the summer.

Heard some of it, was pretty toe curling.

 

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Leonard has reinstated the Aberdeen Labour councillors that were suspended for going into coalition with the Tories just in time to vote with the Tories on the council budget ...

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5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Leonard has reinstated the Aberdeen Labour councillors that were suspended for going into coalition with the Tories just in time to vote with the Tories on the council budget ...

Has he?  That wasn't what he said in the interview - which was terrible. 

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4 minutes ago, aaid said:

Has he?  That wasn't what he said in the interview - which was terrible. 

Sorry - clearly there was a slight misrepresentation from my twitter sources

Replace "has" with "about to"

 

Well knock me down with a feather- “ex” Labour Councillors in Aberdeen City removed from Party by Kezia Dugdale for going into bed with Tories are being let back in by Richard Leonard just in time to vote with the Tories on the council budget. Not a good look.

 

 

 

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The talk about indyref2 surfacing again today. Sturgeon saying she'll decide at the end of this year on whether to call it once we see what the Brexit deal is.

Frankly, that would worry me as polls aren't exactly screaming out that a yes vote is near being returned. Sturgeon did say she would wait until victory was as good as assured before going for another referendum. Well at present I would say a similar result to last time wiould be returned. I'd prefer us to wait. Thoughts?

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52 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

The talk about indyref2 surfacing again today. Sturgeon saying she'll decide at the end of this year on whether to call it once we see what the Brexit deal is.

Frankly, that would worry me as polls aren't exactly screaming out that a yes vote is near being returned. Sturgeon did say she would wait until victory was as good as assured before going for another referendum. Well at present I would say a similar result to last time wiould be returned. I'd prefer us to wait. Thoughts?

This is no different to the position since the referendum.

The calculation is that whatever deal the UK is able to deliver will be so bad for Scotland that it will drive significant numbers of people who are either don't knows or No voters to support independence and that will be reflected in the polls.

If the UK manages to come up with what looks to most people to be an acceptable deal then you won't see that change of public opinion and so you won't see another IndyRef - at least not next year.

Similarly, if its a really bad deal but that doesn't shift public opinion towards Independence then there probably won't be another IndyRef - although in that case she may be under some pressure from those that think another direct Indy campaign might be enough to get it over the line.

So when Nicola Sturgeon says that she will wait until the shape of the final deal is clearer and what that means for Scotland before making a decision, she will be looking at what the deal looks like and what general public opinion in Scotland is of the deal and then will be weighing up her course of action.

On that basis though, I expect there to be a lot of "soft" campaigning in the rest of the year outlining the benefits of independence.

Edited by aaid

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13 minutes ago, aaid said:

This is no different to the position since the referendum.

The calculation is that whatever deal the UK is able to deliver will be so bad for Scotland that it will drive significant numbers of people who are either don't knows or No voters to support independence and that will be reflected in the polls.

If the UK manages to come up with what looks to most people to be an acceptable deal then you won't see that change of public opinion and so you won't see another IndyRef - at least not next year.

Similarly, if its a really bad deal but that doesn't shift public opinion towards Independence then there probably won't be another IndyRef - although in that case she may be under some pressure from those that think another direct Indy campaign might be enough to get it over the line.

So when Nicola Sturgeon says that she will wait until the shape of the final deal is clearer and what that means for Scotland before making a decision, she will be looking at what the deal looks like and what general public opinion in Scotland is of the deal and then will be weighing up her course of action.

On that basis though, I expect there to be a lot of "soft" campaigning in the rest of the year outlining the benefits of independence.

Fair enough.

However, for a good number of months now it has looked pretty clear that the end deal will not be what people are hoping for and yet the polls haven't really shown any swing to Yes. That is a worry.

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7 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Fair enough.

However, for a good number of months now it has looked pretty clear that the end deal will not be what people are hoping for and yet the polls haven't really shown any swing to Yes. That is a worry.

I think the vast majority of voters aren't really paying much attention right now.

FWIW, I think we've more chance of another EU referendum in the next couple of years than an Indy one.

Edited by aaid

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3 minutes ago, aaid said:

I think the vast majority of voters aren't really paying much attention right now.

FWIW, I think we've more chance of another EU referendum in the next couple of years than an Indy one.

I would agree with that.

I'd be much happier if we sit tight on another indyref until a win looks far more likely. I suppose the big problem is if we wait beyond Brexit a few years we are far less likely to even get an indyref granted then as many skeptics will say that a hard Brexit wasn't enough to ask for a referendum so why now? If you see what I mean.

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I would agree with that.

I'd be much happier if we sit tight on another indyref until a win looks far more likely. I suppose the big problem is if we wait beyond Brexit a few years we are far less likely to even get an indyref granted then as many skeptics will say that a hard Brexit wasn't enough to ask for a referendum so why now? If you see what I mean.

I don't think that the UK will actually leave the EU - at least not in any kind of meaningful way.

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An alternative hypothetical possibility is that Brexit goes well (from some points of view): there is a pragmatic compromise, such that leaving the bigger union doesn't seem so scary after all, the larger union is seen to cut a reasonable (non punitive) deal, the precedent of a soft border between UK and EU is assured, and on a number of small but significant symbolic issues, Britain gets its way (e.g. own blue passports!),... in ways that might make independence seem more achievable and positive.

And/or it could depend if the UK Government do a fair deal for Scotland within the overall deal. Does the deal disproportionately favour the City, southern industries, and Northern Ireland, but sell Scotland down the river?  

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The Unionist rag that is the Herald tomorrow

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15 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

The talk about indyref2 surfacing again today. Sturgeon saying she'll decide at the end of this year on whether to call it once we see what the Brexit deal is.

Frankly, that would worry me as polls aren't exactly screaming out that a yes vote is near being returned. Sturgeon did say she would wait until victory was as good as assured before going for another referendum. Well at present I would say a similar result to last time wiould be returned. I'd prefer us to wait. Thoughts?

Yes i would largely agree, its all about timing and TBH  the snp should leave it as long as possible before calling another vote, a year before the next holyrood elections, if we leave it until after the next holyrood elections we will be relying on the pro indy partys having a majority which I am not sure they will get.

 

Sturgeon needs to stop chasing the voters and let them come to her, brexit will do that, however when she pins indy ref to Brexit  i believe this pushes or isolates a section of the electorate , the mandate is there for another indy ref and it should be fought with the vision of scotland will gets what she votes for it should not be primarily fought on the brexit front. 

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2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Yes i would largely agree, its all about timing and TBH  the snp should leave it as long as possible before calling another vote, a year before the next holyrood elections, if we leave it until after the next holyrood elections we will be relying on the pro indy partys having a majority which I am not sure they will get.

 

Sturgeon needs to stop chasing the voters and let them come to her, brexit will do that, however when she pins indy ref to Brexit  i believe this pushes or isolates a section of the electorate , the mandate is there for another indy ref and it should be fought with the vision of scotland will gets what she votes for it should not be primarily fought on the brexit front. 

That may work both ways though. I mean I'd guess there are a number of 'No' voters last time who are pro-Europe so they may be more willing to vote 'Yes' this time.

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Indyref 2 needs to be fought on independence.  It should not be conditional on being in the EU.  That, or EFTA or being out the EU are a matter for a referendum in an indy Scotland.  Personally i am failry sure I would vote to be in the EU but making that a fixed parameter will lose quite a bit of support from indy.

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1 minute ago, Alibi said:

Indyref 2 needs to be fought on independence.  It should not be conditional on being in the EU.  That, or EFTA or being out the EU are a matter for a referendum in an indy Scotland.  Personally i am failry sure I would vote to be in the EU but making that a fixed parameter will lose quite a bit of support from indy.

Oh for sure Alibi but you must realize, and it happened last time, that Better Together will make it an issue. They will make whatever they can an issue to cloud the waters and give people reason to throw pelters at the 'Yes' campaign. The 'Yes' campaign have to be better prepared on all of these issues and have a clear course that is well thought out on them all. The EU issues will be brought into it - I have no doubt about it even though it is a referendum about our independence.

 

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2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That may work both ways though. I mean I'd guess there are a number of 'No' voters last time who are pro-Europe so they may be more willing to vote 'Yes' this time.

That's 100% correct.  Support for independence has basically remained consistent since 2014 - if anything it's probably up a 2-3 points.   What that means is that if - and I suspect there are - a number of previous Yes voters now prepared to vote No on the back of the Brexit result, there are a similar number of 2014 pro-voters going the other way.   

In the debate so far - and given that's driven by the media its not surprising - all the focus has been on the Yes/Brexiteers.  I think you - not you personally, the wider you - ignore the Pro-EU/No vote at your peril by somehow going soft on the EU.

In a second IndyRef both Yes/Brexit and the Remain/No would have to make a choice - in each case they can't have both outcomes they desire: Scotland to remain in both the EU and UK or  Scotland to leave both the EU and the UK.

My gut feel is that in that scenario Yes would pick up more votes than it would lose.

Edited by aaid

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1 hour ago, Alibi said:

Indyref 2 needs to be fought on independence.  It should not be conditional on being in the EU.  That, or EFTA or being out the EU are a matter for a referendum in an indy Scotland.  Personally i am failry sure I would vote to be in the EU but making that a fixed parameter will lose quite a bit of support from indy.

 

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Oh for sure Alibi but you must realize, and it happened last time, that Better Together will make it an issue. They will make whatever they can an issue to cloud the waters and give people reason to throw pelters at the 'Yes' campaign. The 'Yes' campaign have to be better prepared on all of these issues and have a clear course that is well thought out on them all. The EU issues will be brought into it - I have no doubt about it even though it is a referendum about our independence.

 

Then the ideal way is for the SNP to offer a multi question referendum on the matter after Independence.

Then they can merely say to the bitter together mob that it is up to the people to decide.

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

That's 100% correct.  Support for independence has basically remained consistent since 2014 - if anything it's probably up a 2-3 points.   What that means is that if - and I suspect there are - a number of previous Yes voters now prepared to vote No on the back of the Brexit result, there are a similar number of 2014 pro-voters going the other way.   

In the debate so far - and given that's driven by the media its not surprising - all the focus has been on the Yes/Brexiteers.  I think you - not you personally, the wider you - ignore the Pro-EU/No vote at your peril by somehow going soft on the EU.

In a second IndyRef both Yes/Brexit and the Remain/No would have to make a choice - in each case they can't have both outcomes they desire, Scotland to remain in both the EU and UK and Scotland to leave both the EU and the UK.

My gut feel is that in that scenario Yes would pick up more votes than it would lose.

I am ambivalent about being in or out of Europe. I can see pros and cons in staying so am not too fussed either way. If/when another referendum on independence comes around I will be voting 'Yes' regardless of what comes out of Brexit.

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For me, Yes Scotland (or equivelent) needs to be re/formed and up and running right away. We need to normalise the concept of Scottish independence before official campaigning starts. 

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7 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That may work both ways though. I mean I'd guess there are a number of 'No' voters last time who are pro-Europe so they may be more willing to vote 'Yes' this time.

Yes I appreciate there has been a shift from and to yes, my gut keeps telling me sturgeon should be very candid with the whole brexit situation, wait and be patient. Wait until theres a brach of yes scotland to represent euro sceptics,,that push a vision for efta, ect 

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Just now, hampden_loon2878 said:

Yes I appreciate there has been a shift from and to yes, my gut keeps telling me sturgeon should be very candid with the whole brexit situation, wait and be patient. Wait until theres a brach of yes scotland to represent euro sceptics,,that push a vision for efta, ect 

It is really difficult though.

I believe she should really be looking to make this solely about what matters most - Scotland's Independence. Sit more on the fence on key issues but have a strong plan on those issues. If pushed on them just insist the vote is about independence nothing else. On Europe she should merely say we will have our own referendum on Europe after independence.

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The next set of gers figures may be interesting, the price  of oil has continued to rise and production is on the rise also, add that to the growth of the onshore economy and it should resilt in the best figures for a good few year,, it will be a shot in the arm we could do with to bat away the ultra unionists scare story's. 

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37 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

The next set of gers figures may be interesting, the price  of oil has continued to rise and production is on the rise also, add that to the growth of the onshore economy and it should resilt in the best figures for a good few year,, it will be a shot in the arm we could do with to bat away the ultra unionists scare story's. 

I think the key to victory will be convincing people we can survive without the oil.

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On 09/01/2018 at 11:25 AM, Alibi said:

Anyone hear Richard Leonard getting torn to shreds on GMS this morning?  Almost felt sorry for him.  He really is clueless on almost everything.  Corbyn had repeated his (disingenuous) claim that if you are not in the EU you can't be in the single market, and despite Gary Robertson telling him that that was a direct quote from Corbyn, Leonard tried to weasel his way out of it.  the rest of the interview was similarly car crash level of idiocy.  Leonard is the worst "leader" so far and the bar certainly hasn't been set terribly high before now.  Where do they dig up these clowns?  Can't see him lasting beyond the summer.

He'll last alright as he meets the most important criteria - he is a die-hard unionist.

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