Clinton Wins 5 Out Of 5 Coin Tosses... Delegate Awarded

[Cove_Sheep]

Seems odd

[Third Lanark]

Yep. Any mathematicians can tell me what the odds would be?

[Scunnered]

Reading that, there was only one coin toss?

[aaid]

Reading that, there was only one coin toss?

One coin toss in five precincts

[aaid]

Yep. Any mathematicians can tell me what the odds would be?

The same as any other outcome. The odds of five heads coming up are the same as five tails or three heads and two tails and on and on.

[Parklife]

The same as any other outcome. The odds of five heads coming up are the same as five tails or three heads and two tails and on and on.

. Aye but what are the odds?

[Scunnered]

One coin toss in five precincts

Ah, just saw the bottom bit a out similar situations.

[aaid]

. Aye but what are the odds?

32 to 1

[Khana Lagur]

. Aye but what are the odds?

That depends on whether the coin is weighted or not.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Khana Lagur

[Alibi]

The same as any other outcome. The odds of five heads coming up are the same as five tails or three heads and two tails and on and on.

The same as for five tails, but I'm not sure that applies to three head and two tails as there are a lot of combinations of five coins being tossed that could give that - e.g HHHTT or HTHHT or HTTHH.

[Alibi]

32 to 1

Odds are 31 to 1. 1 in 32, which is not quite the same as 32-1.

[aaid]

The same as for five tails, but I'm not sure that applies to three head and two tails as there are a lot of combinations of five coins being tossed that could give that - e.g HHHTT or HTHHT or HTTHH.

I take your point, not the same as having three heads and two tails in total, it was the sequence I was getting at.

[phart]

why are the odds 31 to 1? For guessing 5 coin tosses in a row?

[sbcmfc]

It's 50/50 5 times.

So it's 1 x 2e5.

Any combination is 31/1 and only one combination can give 5/5.

[joe545]

It's 50/50 5 times.

So it's 1 x 2e5.

Any combination is 31/1 and only one combination can give 5/5.

Exactly.

Chance is 1 in 2*2*2*2*2 (i.e. 2^5). Which is 1 in 32. Which is 32 in decimal odds and 31/1 in UK odds

[Khana Lagur]

31/1 is correct in terms of probability of such an outcome but probability and odds are not the same thing.

I doubt a bookie would offer such high odds on five heads from five tosses. A bookie would base their odds, IMO, on the fact that one coin toss is completely unconnected to either a previous one or a subsequent one. They are totally separate events that will setle based on a single factor and the odds would reflect that.

[sbcmfc]

31/1 is correct in terms of probability of such an outcome but probability and odds are not the same thing.

I doubt a bookie would offer such high odds on five heads from five tosses. A bookie would base their odds, IMO, on the fact that one coin toss is completely unconnected to either a previous one or a subsequent one. They are totally separate events that will setle based on a single factor and the odds would reflect that.

The odds of something happening and the odds the bookies offer are different things in my eyes, but that's just wording.

A good example would be roulette.

On a single number the odds are 35/1, but there are 37 possible outcomes. So the "real odds" (there's probably a term for that?) are 36/1. The 1/37th is their edge.

*none of these rules apply to the roulette machines in bookies, as the numbers aren't randomly generated, they give a pre-determined payout percentage.

[aaid]

The odds of something happening and the odds the bookies offer are different things in my eyes, but that's just wording.

A good example would be roulette.

On a single number the odds are 35/1, but there are 37 possible outcomes. So the "real odds" (there's probably a term for that?) are 36/1. The 1/37th is their edge.

*none of these rules apply to the roulette machines in bookies, as the numbers aren't randomly generated, they give a pre-determined payout percentage.

The other thing is that odds bookies offer is also a factor of the amount of money placed on any particular outcome. If you take this example, we know that any single coin toss has a 50% chance of being heads.

If four heads are tossed in a row, then given the concept of Gambler's Fallacy, which is that people *believe* that the previous four tosses have an influence on the fifth, more people would bet on tails - "it can't be heads again" - and so the odds offered by a bookie would similarly be reduced - to cover their exposure - and similarly the odds on heads would increase.

That is the betting market adjusting itself on the basis of bets laid, it has no impact on the probability of heads or tails.

A similar scenario occurs in Football more commonly known as the "It's our year" syndrome and is most closely associated with England fans betting on them winning tournaments and Liverpool fans betting on winning the League.