Clyde1998 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Those YouGov polls revealed in the last month have shown an average of a 0.63% swing to the yes campaign daily. Let's take the swing from the 15th August poll to the 1st September poll (0.46% daily swing towards yes or yes increase 0.23% per day). 1st Sep - 46.8% yes 2nd - 47.0% 3rd - 47.3% 4th - 47.5% 5th - 47.7% 6th - 48.0% 7th - 48.2% 8th - 48.4% 9th - 48.7% 10th - 48.9% 11th - 49.2% 12th - 49.4% 13th - 49.6% 14th - 49.9% 15th - 50.1% 16th - 50.3% 17th - 50.6% 18th - 50.8% If the current rate of swing towards the yes campaign continues, the yes campaign will win by 0.8%. Of course daily swing can rapidly change, but we can hope it doesn't... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I hope it changes. 50.8% is far too close for comfort. Want it to be up over 55%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 I hope it changes. 50.8% is far too close for comfort. Want it to be up over 55%. I'd take any win, but the larger the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Those YouGov polls revealed in the last month have shown an average of a 0.63% swing to the yes campaign daily. Let's take the swing from the 15th August poll to the 1st September poll (0.46% daily swing towards yes or yes increase 0.23% per day). 1st Sep - 46.8% yes 2nd - 47.0% 3rd - 47.3% 4th - 47.5% 5th - 47.7% 6th - 48.0% 7th - 48.2% 8th - 48.4% 9th - 48.7% 10th - 48.9% 11th - 49.2% 12th - 49.4% 13th - 49.6% 14th - 49.9% 15th - 50.1% 16th - 50.3% 17th - 50.6% 18th - 50.8% If the current rate of swing towards the yes campaign continues, the yes campaign will win by 0.8%. Of course daily swing can rapidly change, but we can hope it doesn't... That is a simple extrapolation and takes no account of the effect of momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UPROAR Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 we will have a bigger turnout then "No" - I think this is looking comfortable... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanday Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 We have to get the undecideds to vote yes. That means as many people as possible canvassing over the next fortnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 we will have a bigger turnout then "No" - I think this is looking comfortable... This is key to the whole campaign. From people I've spoken to, I wouldn't be surprised if many NO voters didn't bother going out to the polls whereas YES are more likely to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jailender Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 This is key to the whole campaign. From people I've spoken to, I wouldn't be surprised if many NO voters didn't bother going out to the polls whereas YES are more likely to vote. This is probably the reason I think Yes will win. I think there are probably more Nos out there, but their turnout will be lower, handing it to yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I think No will skoosh the postal vote though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I think No will skoosh the postal vote though... Exactly, it's good to have a couple of days where the momentum feels great but I think Yes could do with re-asserting focus. Lot of back slapping going on and high fiving but if, and I accept it's an if, if the polls are right and No are still in front, we've still got a massive job on our hands. We also need to win convincingly so that there is room for a disaster, or jiggery pokery, or last minute nerves from soft Yes's. People quickly changing to Yes can quickly change back to No. Need to keep on the front foot and put a power of work in the next week or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UPROAR Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I think No will skoosh the postal vote though... canvassing in leafy west Edinburgh in the last few days doesnt show a large No in postal vote, albeit on a small sample. Its overwhelmingly oder people who have already voted - but I would say a small advantage for No in that group, but nothing to panic about so far... . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 That is a simple extrapolation and takes no account of the effect of momentum. Do you want me to make the yes gains per day larger? As I put at the bottom: "Of course daily swing can rapidly change" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Exactly, it's good to have a couple of days where the momentum feels great but I think Yes could do with re-asserting focus. Lot of back slapping going on and high fiving Presumably, the sight of an over-confident First Minister prematurely predicting victory would be a sure way of getting the 'no' vote out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padre Andrew Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 From people I've spoken to, I wouldn't be surprised if many NO voters didn't bother going out to the polls whereas YES are more likely to vote. This is a line I'd love to believe, but I just can't. Older people (more likely to vote No, by most accounts) have a good track record of getting out and voting. What am I missing? Which Nos won't bother? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 This is a line I'd love to believe, but I just can't. Older people (more likely to vote No, by most accounts) have a good track record of getting out and voting. What am I missing? Which Nos won't bother? Soft Noes. Those whose default position is "Ach, I suppose I'm a no". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred_Zeppelin Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Soft Noes. Those whose default position is "Ach, I suppose I'm a no". Aye, there's a couple of those in my work, pay lip service to No, tell you they can't see how we could afford it and shrug, I'm certain they will choose the pub over the ballot box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Voters registering today in Glasgow. They ain't voting No! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 How many have left it too late I wonder? 5 minutes left!.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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