Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Thought it might be better to start a separate thread for this as it's likely to get lost in the other one.

I've done this last few World Cups/Euros and, if you can stick with it throughout the tournament, it does tend to be worth the outlay.  Looking at the 2014 World Cup, of the 64 games played, 13 of them (20%) finished 2-1.  A quick look on Oddschecker tells me that the odds on 2-1 to the favourite looks to be around 8/1 in each game.  If we were to assume that the same averages would apply in this tournament and that the favourite would win each time then an outlay of £10 on each game (£640) would see a return of £1170 and a profit of £530 if you bet every game 2-1 to the favourite.  Interestingly enough, of those 13 games that finished 2-1, 11 of them were in the Group Stages.  When we moved in to the 16 games after the groups the most common scores were 1-1 (4), 1-0 (3) and 0-0 (3).

Using one tournament as a sample restricts the data at hand so I opened up to the last 3 tournaments.  Results were quite interesting as it showed that last years 2-1 dominance was a one off with the most popular result in 2010 being 1-0 (25%) and in 2006 also 1-0 (20%).  If we look at the 3 tournament average it shows that 20% of the 192 games finished 1-0 and 16% 2-1.  Using the same methodology as above, betting 1-0 to the favourite (at 4/1) in all 64 matches would return £650 so a profit of just £10!!.  If the 2-1 ratio drops to 16% then the winnings would be £900 and a profit of £260.

In short, there's no real value to be had in 1-0.  The number of 2-1 results has increased in each of the last 3 tournaments (7, 11, 13) so I'll be taking my chances that this trend continues.  In order to break even I'd need only 7 games to finish 2-1 (to the favourite) in order to break even and it'll keep me interested throughout the tournament!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gone for £5 each way on Jesus to scorer (20/1) and Cavani (25/1) - each way 5 places with Paddy Power.

£10 on the PP special the other day of France to win, Griesman top scorer at 50/1.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Fairbairn said:

Thought it might be better to start a separate thread for this as it's likely to get lost in the other one.

I've done this last few World Cups/Euros and, if you can stick with it throughout the tournament, it does tend to be worth the outlay.  Looking at the 2014 World Cup, of the 64 games played, 13 of them (20%) finished 2-1.  A quick look on Oddschecker tells me that the odds on 2-1 to the favourite looks to be around 8/1 in each game.  If we were to assume that the same averages would apply in this tournament and that the favourite would win each time then an outlay of £10 on each game (£640) would see a return of £1170 and a profit of £530 if you bet every game 2-1 to the favourite.  Interestingly enough, of those 13 games that finished 2-1, 11 of them were in the Group Stages.  When we moved in to the 16 games after the groups the most common scores were 1-1 (4), 1-0 (3) and 0-0 (3).

Using one tournament as a sample restricts the data at hand so I opened up to the last 3 tournaments.  Results were quite interesting as it showed that last years 2-1 dominance was a one off with the most popular result in 2010 being 1-0 (25%) and in 2006 also 1-0 (20%).  If we look at the 3 tournament average it shows that 20% of the 192 games finished 1-0 and 16% 2-1.  Using the same methodology as above, betting 1-0 to the favourite (at 4/1) in all 64 matches would return £650 so a profit of just £10!!.  If the 2-1 ratio drops to 16% then the winnings would be £900 and a profit of £260.

In short, there's no real value to be had in 1-0.  The number of 2-1 results has increased in each of the last 3 tournaments (7, 11, 13) so I'll be taking my chances that this trend continues.  In order to break even I'd need only 7 games to finish 2-1 (to the favourite) in order to break even and it'll keep me interested throughout the tournament!  

Thinking of doing the same for 3-1 to the favourites but only in the group stages. Think there might be a few more goals in the groups and there were 5 or 6 last time finishing 3-1. 1-1 in the knockout games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Fairbairn said:

In short, there's no real value to be had in 1-0.  The number of 2-1 results has increased in each of the last 3 tournaments (7, 11, 13) so I'll be taking my chances that this trend continues.  In order to break even I'd need only 7 games to finish 2-1 (to the favourite) in order to break even and it'll keep me interested throughout the tournament!  

Looks like you’ve done your homework!

How much are you sticking on the 2-1s and on how many games?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, DoonTheSlope said:

Looks like you’ve done your homework!

How much are you sticking on the 2-1s and on how many games?

I’ll do a tenner a game for the group stages and see where I am by the end of that. 

28 minutes ago, killiefaetheferry said:

Thinking of doing the same for 3-1 to the favourites but only in the group stages. Think there might be a few more goals in the groups and there were 5 or 6 last time finishing 3-1. 1-1 in the knockout games.

I’m sorely tempted to switch to 1-1 in the knockouts as well. That was definitely the trend in the last competition. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Fairbairn said:

I’ll do a tenner a game for the group stages and see where I am by the end of that. 

I’m sorely tempted to switch to 1-1 in the knockouts as well. That was definitely the trend in the last competition. 

I was reading a report the other day about a trend for less shots but more goals per game since 1966. This is what is leading me to the 3-1 rather than 2-1. Averaging 14-16/1. about 5 breaks you even then it's 100 up for each one after that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, killiefaetheferry said:

I was reading a report the other day about a trend for less shots but more goals per game since 1966. This is what is leading me to the 3-1 rather than 2-1. Averaging 14-16/1. about 5 breaks you even then it's 100 up for each one after that.

Exactly 5 in the last tournament.  £110 profit if that's the case (On tenner stakes).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Fairbairn said:

Exactly 5 in the last tournament.  £110 profit if that's the case (On tenner stakes).

Assuming it’s always 3-1 to the favourite?

You’re making it sound too easy. :lol:

At a glance Costa Rica 3-1 Uruguay wouldn’t have been any good as you’d have bet Uruguay to win.

Based on 2014 stats, the trend towards higher scoring games... 3-1 throughout the group stage has potential to come in, I’m just looking for how far wrong it can go. :lol:

£480 down if there’s none, you’d just about break even with 3...

Edited by sbcmfc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Betting the same score in every game to keep it interesting?  Jeez we need to qualify soon...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Betting the same score in every game to keep it interesting?  Jeez we need to qualify soon...

 

:lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, phart said:

I put a fiver on Eriksen as top scorer cause Parkie said it in other thread.

I'm sorry... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/11/2018 at 2:25 PM, Fairbairn said:

Thought it might be better to start a separate thread for this as it's likely to get lost in the other one.

I've done this last few World Cups/Euros and, if you can stick with it throughout the tournament, it does tend to be worth the outlay.  Looking at the 2014 World Cup, of the 64 games played, 13 of them (20%) finished 2-1.  A quick look on Oddschecker tells me that the odds on 2-1 to the favourite looks to be around 8/1 in each game.  If we were to assume that the same averages would apply in this tournament and that the favourite would win each time then an outlay of £10 on each game (£640) would see a return of £1170 and a profit of £530 if you bet every game 2-1 to the favourite.  Interestingly enough, of those 13 games that finished 2-1, 11 of them were in the Group Stages.  When we moved in to the 16 games after the groups the most common scores were 1-1 (4), 1-0 (3) and 0-0 (3).

Using one tournament as a sample restricts the data at hand so I opened up to the last 3 tournaments.  Results were quite interesting as it showed that last years 2-1 dominance was a one off with the most popular result in 2010 being 1-0 (25%) and in 2006 also 1-0 (20%).  If we look at the 3 tournament average it shows that 20% of the 192 games finished 1-0 and 16% 2-1.  Using the same methodology as above, betting 1-0 to the favourite (at 4/1) in all 64 matches would return £650 so a profit of just £10!!.  If the 2-1 ratio drops to 16% then the winnings would be £900 and a profit of £260.

In short, there's no real value to be had in 1-0.  The number of 2-1 results has increased in each of the last 3 tournaments (7, 11, 13) so I'll be taking my chances that this trend continues.  In order to break even I'd need only 7 games to finish 2-1 (to the favourite) in order to break even and it'll keep me interested throughout the tournament!  

Very interesting. 

I'd like to know whether there are other patterns within those 2-1 results to see if there is a way to avoid betting on matches that are unlikely to finish 2-1, saving £10 each time.

For example, are any of those 2-1s in games between group favourite and group outsider? Can we save £10 by ignoring Belgium v Panama and other games like that? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

For example, are any of those 2-1s in games between group favourite and group outsider? Can we save £10 by ignoring Belgium v Panama and other games like that? 

At a glance, probably not.

Theres also going to be games in third round of group games where teams have qualified or been eliminated which may impact...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve been using my free bets on skybet on Brazil for a few months.

Taken up Willy Hills offer of free £5 bet every time Brazil (or whoever you bet) win a game, so get £10 on them there too, and done same for Lewandowski top scorer (free £5 every time he scores).

Taken Parklifes tip on Eriksen as looks great value, even if they don’t get out group.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

took Russia/Russia as the first part of a three 3 bet parlays.

 

So all 3 up at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, phart said:

took Russia/Russia as the first part of a three 3 bet parlays.

 

So all 3 up at the moment.

Uruguay saved me 2 bets there. I had them winning in the parlay, just need both spain and portugal to score tonight and 2 bets pay out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×