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STV Poll


Clyde1998

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Do you think that the UK's/Scotland's economy will be better off or worse off as a result of leaving the EU, or will it make no difference?

  • UK - Better 14%; Worse 61%; No difference 15%; Don't Know 10%
  • Scotland - Better 12%; Worse 61%; No difference 18%; Don't Know 8%

Do you support or oppose holding another referendum on Scottish Independence within the next three years?

  • Support - 41% (30% strongly; 11% tend to)
  • Oppose - 47% (37% strongly; 10% tend to)
  • Neither - 8%
  • Don't Know - 3%

Should Scotland be an independent county?

  • Yes - 46% (+1 on May poll)
  • No - 50% (-1)
  • Don't Know - 4% (+1)

How would you vote if there were a UK general election tomorrow?

  • SNP - 39% (+2 on June election)
  • Lab - 26% (-1)
  • Con - 25% (-4)
  • Lib - 6% (-1)
  • Oth - 4% (+3)
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Interesting and whilst both sides could argue its good for them e.g No - the shambles of the Tories/Brexit and Yes not ahead ; Yes - still holding steady without any referendum being called/active campaigning/media etc.

I think there will have to be one if the UK leaves the single market/customs union (which the Tories say they are intend on doing). I'm not convinced that will happen and think that the UK govt will strike some sort of government with the EU e.g be in the sm/cu in all but name ; but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if Britain ended up crashing out or staying. May's 'detailed speech' a few weeks ago was merely a wish list but with a bit more detail added to and there is no way the EU will agree to much of it when the discussions get to the wire. 

I think since the SNP's 'defeat' last June, they have been mostly dead on with their direction. Focussing on Holyrood, the tax bill and now the continuation bill, with little mention of Indyref2, getting on with things but planning in the background and hopefully nailing currency and other concerns that some could argue cost Yes the win in 2014. 

I'm sure the Unionists will run with '41% support Indyref 2' etc but in those numbers could well be Yes voters who don't want a referendum so soon and even No voters who are confident of nailing it and putting the issue away for a long, long time. 

The UK is meant to be leaving the EU or at least the door slowing will be closing behind it next March ; it's going to be a very interesting year to see what happens.

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1 hour ago, weekevie04 said:

 

I'm sure the Unionists will run with '41% support Indyref 2' etc but in those numbers could well be Yes voters who don't want a referendum so soon and even No voters who are confident of nailing it and putting the issue away for a long, long time. 

The UK is meant to be leaving the EU or at least the door slowing will be closing behind it next March ; it's going to be a very interesting year to see what happens.

I don't think there are many No voters confident of nailing it, that's why there are so many who oppose another referendum. 

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17 minutes ago, aaid said:

I don't think there are many No voters confident of nailing it, that's why there are so many who oppose another referendum. 

I think that may be because the argument for remaining in the UK is far weaker than it was in 2014. Brexit and attempted power grab from the Scottish Parliament take apart two of the biggest arguments, while it's much more likely that the Conservatives will play a much bigger role in any No campaign - which will drive Labour-leaning soft No voters towards Yes. The EU certainly won't be making any interventions on behalf of the UK Government, while any intervention by Trump will only help the Yes side.

Age wise, No voters are only a majority in the 55+ age group. Outside it, the poll shows a 55% majority for Yes, which may get bigger as people talk to each other during a campaign. Incredible that the 55+ age category can turn a 55% majority to a 48% minority for Yes though.

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It is a really tricky one.

If we push for IndyRef2 right now it goes against what NS said. She said she would only call for a second referendum when she was super confident a yes vote would be returned. Well going by the polls that is certainly not the case just now. But can she let such a pivotal political moment such as being taken out of the EU despite Scotland voting otherwise and being removed from the single market against its wishes pass without calling for a referendum? I mean I would prefer us to wait until the polls are far more heavily in our favour before going again but if we don't ask for one now and wait 5 years when political times are much calmer surely Westminster would be querying why at that time and not now? If you see what I mean. I'd feel it would be easier to force a referendum in the near future in the current unstable climate than perhaps in calmer times 5 to 10 years down the line.

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58 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

It is a really tricky one.

If we push for IndyRef2 right now it goes against what NS said. She said she would only call for a second referendum when she was super confident a yes vote would be returned. Well going by the polls that is certainly not the case just now. But can she let such a pivotal political moment such as being taken out of the EU despite Scotland voting otherwise and being removed from the single market against its wishes pass without calling for a referendum? I mean I would prefer us to wait until the polls are far more heavily in our favour before going again but if we don't ask for one now and wait 5 years when political times are much calmer surely Westminster would be querying why at that time and not now? If you see what I mean. I'd feel it would be easier to force a referendum in the near future in the current unstable climate than perhaps in calmer times 5 to 10 years down the line.

Problem is, you're not going to convince people to vote for independence unless you're actively campaigning for it. While this can be done without actually calling a referendum, a referendum is when you're going to have people at their most attentive. Independence support has traditionally been around 30%, with a few peaks here and there. The last referendum increased support for independence and hardened it to a level at around 40% (minimum).

It's a tricky situation as you don't want to lose another referendum, but the unionist side are probably at their weakest in years (possibly since pre-devolution) and this is probably the best time - while the UK's in turmoil. Although you could argue that if Brexit is going to be bad, you would want to leave it five or ten years to be sure that people view independence as the only option for Scotland, as happened with devolution during the Thatcher years.

It's a question of whether Sturgeon will use the mandate she has to call for a referendum within the term of this parliament or not. Timing it will be key, but you don't want to miss your opportunity.

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On 3/14/2018 at 6:19 PM, Clyde1998 said:

Age wise, No voters are only a majority in the 55+ age group. Outside it, the poll shows a 55% majority for Yes, which may get bigger as people talk to each other during a campaign. Incredible that the 55+ age category can turn a 55% majority to a 48% minority for Yes though.

In the 4 years since the referendum, has there been any polling evidence that shows the over 55 No voters being replaced by Yes voters? 4 years is too short a timescale for that to show up maybe?

 

20 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

Problem is, you're not going to convince people to vote for independence unless you're actively campaigning for it. While this can be done without actually calling a referendum, a referendum is when you're going to have people at their most attentive. Independence support has traditionally been around 30%, with a few peaks here and there. The last referendum increased support for independence and hardened it to a level at around 40% (minimum).

It's a tricky situation as you don't want to lose another referendum, but the unionist side are probably at their weakest in years (possibly since pre-devolution) and this is probably the best time - while the UK's in turmoil. Although you could argue that if Brexit is going to be bad, you would want to leave it five or ten years to be sure that people view independence as the only option for Scotland, as happened with devolution during the Thatcher years.

It's a question of whether Sturgeon will use the mandate she has to call for a referendum within the term of this parliament or not. Timing it will be key, but you don't want to miss your opportunity.

It has to be in this parliament, no doubt about it.

 

With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, i think Sturgeon made a tactical error by not immediately submitting the section 30 request in those crazy first few days after the Brexit result. Support for indy was at 59% according to the polls, and the UK govt was in total disarray. The electoral mandate was there, along with the political capital to call it. There was also the tacit backing of the Remain-leaning MSM.

That political capital was lost after losing seats in the GE, and the Tories have reorganised (to a degree!). I fear their objective now will be to push Scotland into a Catalan style situation.

Edited by Dave78
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1 hour ago, Dave78 said:

In the 4 years since the referendum, has there been any polling evidence that shows the over 55 No voters being replaced by Yes voters? 4 years is too short a timescale for that to show up maybe?

Estimated No vote among the over 55s was around 68% in 2014. This week's poll has it at 62%.

 

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1 hour ago, Dave78 said:

In the 4 years since the referendum, has there been any polling evidence that shows the over 55 No voters being replaced by Yes voters? 4 years is too short a timescale for that to show up maybe?

kSt6PO7.png

  • Red - 60+
  • Blue - 65+

Using YouGov's data, and a five poll moving average, it appears that the gap among <60 voters only really appeared in the final month of the referendum campaign and was closing prior to the Holyrood election in 2016. The gap only seems to have emerged as a result of the >60 voters increasing their support for independence, rather than a drop in support from <60 voters. The gap was closing as the <60 voters were slowly increasing support for independence, while the general populous was slightly declining.

YouGov inconspicuously changed that group to be <65 in March 2016 and it's been vaguely stable since, takeout a couple of outlying polls.

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23 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Interesting info, thanks.

So my next question is: How many harsh winters/flu epidemics before we see Yes in the lead? :P 

Pensioner share of the population of Scotland is due to increase from 30% to 40% over the next 20 years, so it could be a while.  Probably a more important statistic could be the percentage of Yes supporters who remain that way as they get older.

 

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13 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Pensioner share of the population of Scotland is due to increase from 30% to 40% over the next 20 years, so it could be a while.  Probably a more important statistic could be the percentage of Yes supporters who remain that way as they get older.

 

Aye, the question is will the level of support in the 45-55 age range carry over as they get older. That's why i was wondering about the polling evidence of this over the last 4 years. It seems to be encouraging, right?

Edited by Dave78
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On 14/03/2018 at 6:19 PM, Clyde1998 said:

I think that may be because the argument for remaining in the UK is far weaker than it was in 2014. Brexit and attempted power grab from the Scottish Parliament take apart two of the biggest arguments, while it's much more likely that the Conservatives will play a much bigger role in any No campaign - which will drive Labour-leaning soft No voters towards Yes. The EU certainly won't be making any interventions on behalf of the UK Government, while any intervention by Trump will only help the Yes side.

Age wise, No voters are only a majority in the 55+ age group. Outside it, the poll shows a 55% majority for Yes, which may get bigger as people talk to each other during a campaign. Incredible that the 55+ age category can turn a 55% majority to a 48% minority for Yes though.

Old bastards turn out and vote though.

J

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  • 1 month later...

What about the Poles etc? What do the polls show about indy support with Poles et al ?

And 16-18 ?

 

Can IndyRef2 definitely include all 16+ and all EU citizens?

And what about "exiled Scots"?

(who can basically be defined as eligible for a Scottish passport should independence happen or eligible to play for Scotland football team!) (I live in Wales but pass both such tests...)

Basically maybe the actual electorate in another referendum maybe needs looking at...

 

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9 minutes ago, buckielugger said:

What about the Poles etc? What do the polls show about indy support with Poles et al ?

And 16-18 ?

 

Can IndyRef2 definitely include all 16+ and all EU citizens?

And what about "exiled Scots"?

(who can basically be defined as eligible for a Scottish passport should independence happen or eligible to play for Scotland football team!) (I live in Wales but pass both such tests...)

Basically maybe the actual electorate in another referendum maybe needs looking at...

 

The 2014 referendum could only involve the Scottish electorate as that is all the parliament could legislate for. Any future referendum would be unlikely to be any different.

IIRC any polling I saw of Scots ex-pats was heavily in favour of the UK anyway.

 

 

Edited by Toepoke
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8 hours ago, Toepoke said:

The 2014 referendum could only involve the Scottish electorate as that is all the parliament could legislate for. Any future referendum would be unlikely to be any different.

IIRC any polling I saw of Scots ex-pats was heavily in favour of the UK anyway.

 

 

My anecdotal evidence - being one myself - was that views amongst expats weren't much different from the views in Scotland, ie split pretty much down the middle. 

Not putting that up as anything scientific, just my observations. 

Edited by aaid
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11 hours ago, buckielugger said:

What about the Poles etc? What do the polls show about indy support with Poles et al ?

And 16-18 ?

 

Can IndyRef2 definitely include all 16+ and all EU citizens?

And what about "exiled Scots"?

(who can basically be defined as eligible for a Scottish passport should independence happen or eligible to play for Scotland football team!) (I live in Wales but pass both such tests...)

Basically maybe the actual electorate in another referendum maybe needs looking at...

 

There was a feature on radio this morning all about democracy, post democracy etc and it said that rigging elections these days is all about things way before election day, nothing as crude as stuffing ballot boxes, but things to do with defining the electorate and the scope and the question etc. Not saying any direct link here, just that these things most definitely part of the game... 

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