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The Brexit Thread

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On 03/08/2017 at 10:50 PM, Haggis_trap said:


Yip - it is clear the UK government don't actually know what they want from Brexit.
Therefore negotiations will soon come to a stand still.

Final solution will take one of these formats.

1) Hard brexit.  Break all ties, no ECJ, no free movement, no EU payments. Huge risk for UK economy.
2) Soft Brexit / EEA membership.  Like Norway / CH. Swap free movement for single market access.
3) Customs Union (Turkish style).  Looser formal arrangement but cant make our own trade deals.

The obvious problem is that Boris has promised voters a solution that is simply unobtainable (limiting immigration while remaining in single market).  The longer it goes on the harder this lie becomes harder to admit.  Meanwhile the chances of UK falling out of EU increase...

I reckon it is going to be total gong-show - but the mess will take a couple of years to properly unfold.

Up until now, brexit has been detrimental for the snp and yes movement,, however i sense a shift in tone and attitude,, brexit could well end up being the biggest asset we have,, the snp need to hang low and go under the radar,, we also need labour to implode which i dare say they will if the torys start stretching their lead 

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4 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

A glimpse of the future and our potential trade deals with the USA?...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/27/punitive-export-tariff-placed-on-planes-made-in-northern-ireland

 

We havent even left the EU and we are already in a trade war with the USA

All Boeing contracts being threatened by the UK in retaliation

Im sure the phrase "fastest trade deals in history post Brexit" was being banded about recently

DKvE4YpXcAgYYaL.jpg

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So what's all this talk of avoiding a border in Ireland and allowing a single market to operate in Northern Ireland. How would that work? either it would mean free movement across the Irish Sea/North channel via NI or else a hard border dividing Britain and Ireland? 

Something has to give - but they're pretending a fudge would work? Special treatment for NI but no concessions for Scotland...?

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11 minutes ago, exile said:

So what's all this talk of avoiding a border in Ireland and allowing a single market to operate in Northern Ireland. How would that work? either it would mean free movement across the Irish Sea/North channel via NI or else a hard border dividing Britain and Ireland? 

Something has to give - but they're pretending a fudge would work? Special treatment for NI but no concessions for Scotland...?

Who knows. Just some vague non workable drivel again. 

 

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9 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

pano-rochefort-ocean-fort-boyard4.jpg?it

 You've lost me I think. Is it Uk is a dank horrible prison and Europe is all sunny blue white yachts?

Edited by Eisegerwind
Maybe you've not.

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11 hours ago, Eisegerwind said:

 You've lost me I think. Is it Uk is a dank horrible prison and Europe is all sunny blue white yachts?

It was my humour at putting a border in the middle of the sea

 

 

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Sounds like the end of the road for hard Brexit. At the same time, this latest deal means actual leaving of EU more likely than ever. There is probably a majority acceptance that the EU referendum result (narrow leave) leads us to this.

Surely a huge turning point. Theresa May must be strengthened, and probably Ruth Davidson (without having to actually do or risk anything personally). Meanwhile surely it's the end of Boris Johnson. He can never match the ideologues of the right, while, if you want a pragmatist centrist you have any number of Tory ex remainers ready to step forward and be part of the solution. Johnson and Gove are so 2016. 

Edited by exile

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1 hour ago, exile said:

Sounds like the end of the road for hard Brexit. At the same time, this latest deal means actual leaving of EU more likely than ever. There is probably a majority acceptance that the EU referendum result (narrow leave) leads us to this.

Surely a huge turning point. Theresa May must be strengthened, and probably Ruth Davidson (without having to actually do or risk anything personally). Meanwhile surely it's the end of Boris Johnson. He can never match the ideologues of the right, while, if you want a pragmatist centrist you have any number of Tory ex remainers ready to step forward and be part of the solution. Johnson and Gove are so 2016. 

Can kicked down the road.
The question BBC should be asking is what happens if / when UK regulations diverge from EU / NI.
So the elephant in room remains and Boris can save face (... for now).

 

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43 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

Ahhh - details emerging now.
UK to remain in single market / customs union for 2 years after Brexit ;)
i,e it is a fudge.

Which conveniently takes us up to next election.

Surely the Tory right will go nuts now ?  Could still bring them down.

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^ aye.  more questions than answers / solutions.
it is basically a temporary "very soft brexit" for 2 years after March 2019.

maybe boris thinks it will all still collapse leaving hard brexit as default....

 

Edited by Haggis_trap

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This article is a good summary of todays events...
Basically UK is now leaving EU on same terms as NI.
i.e we must remain in customs union.

"Ireland has saved UK from madness of Hard Brexit".
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-has-just-saved-the-uk-from-the-madness-of-a-hard-brexit-1.3320096?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=tru

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36 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

This article is a good summary of todays events...
Basically UK is now leaving EU on same terms as NI.
i.e we must remain in customs union.

"Ireland has saved UK from madness of Hard Brexit".
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-ireland-has-just-saved-the-uk-from-the-madness-of-a-hard-brexit-1.3320096?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=tru

Yeah that was the only way I can see it working = I was trying to find another way which works - there isnt one.

When that finally sinks in the Brexit fruitloops will not be happy.

 

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^ I am pleased Brexit is heading towards a sensible compromise solution...

However : I have a feeling that Scottish independence achieving 50% is dependent on negative "brexit effect".
Perversely a lunatic hard-brexit that made UK measurably poorer was best way to guarantee that.
 

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20 hours ago, mariokempes56 said:

When that finally sinks in the Brexit fruitloops will not be happy.

 

There's an eery silence on this. Surely the deal means a default of a customs union, never mind implications for single market, freedom of movement...? Where are the howls of outrage frm the Mail and Express? Is it damage limitation?

All we hear is Michael Gove now saying (in effect) the British electorate can vote for a harder Brexit at the next general election. This surely implies he's lost the battle, it's face saving dreaming of a better future next time, it's the kind of things Yesser putting a brave face on it could have said on 19th sept 2014: we accept the status quo for now but we can always vote differently in future. 

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19 hours ago, Haggis_trap said:

^ I am pleased Brexit is heading towards a sensible compromise solution...

However : I have a feeling that Scottish independence achieving 50% is dependent on negative "brexit effect".
Perversely a lunatic hard-brexit that made UK measurably poorer was best way to guarantee that.
 

Yes, though it could show how things are actually politically more fluid than seemed possible: all the bluster of the UK Govt about sticking it to the EU, about walking away from a deal, etc is exposed as just bluster; they were desperate for a deal and agreed to just about everything the EU wanted in order to even start trade talks.

So it makes it much harder for a future UK government to say we're going to walk away from trade with the Jocks, we'll put up a hard border etc.

Put another way, the most seismic geopolitical change of Brexit is maybe not feeling so scary, so the prospect of jumping off the cliff of independence is maybe not quite so scary either.

Also, the clear enactment of EU solidarity with Ireland shows that there is no reason to feel the continental bloc could not be on our side, just because we are 'small and far away'

 

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