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The Brexit Thread

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Actually starting to think the uk government will di anything to appease the fishermen in these negotiations,, just getting that vibe,, that asshole gove was up in peterhead shouting his mouth off again this week which he would not do if he thought the industry was to be sold away again,,, maybe bad for me tonsay but i hope the fishermen get a toasting in the negotiations,,, if they dont the northeast will remain blue for the foreseeable future 

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1 hour ago, weekevie04 said:

e SNP would be unwise to take a referendum off the table next week. Not only would they lose further support and members; the Unionists and media would have a field day with that. I'd like to see them announce that for now we will fight for a cross-party coalition and for the UK to remain in the single market and once Brexit is finalised and we see how things are going, we can then decide if we wish to have another referendum. That might cause problems though for a future referendum, as Brexit might happen after 2021, it might never happen! And if there is a Holyrood election then maybe there won't be a pro-independence majority to pass another bill on a referendum.

 

This is it and now the momentum timings don't work.  Typical Scotland.  So near yet so far.  The current population are only going to vote for independence out of hope or out of anger.  In times like this, the SNP thought they could claim both.  But actually the people weren't full of hope or angry enough at Brexit.  Brexit has not seemed to affect people all that much as yet.  It may in the future but currently people aren't in the mood for another vote.

I'm gutted at that.  I'm livid at being dragged out of Europe and would dearly love the country to embrace a left of centre small country mentality but the Unionists have organised and the only thing left in our favour is the generational shift.

It's only when the independence vote is neither about hope or anger that we'll be most likely to win.  i.e. i'ts the natural, normal, calm point of view.  It'll only come with the generational change.

Edited by PapofGlencoe

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6 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

This is it and now the momentum timings don't work.  Typical Scotland.  So near yet so far.  The current population are only going to vote for independence out of hope or out of anger.  In times like this, the SNP thought they could claim both.  But actually the people weren't full of hope or angry enough at Brexit.  Brexit has not seemed to affect people all that much as yet.  It may in the future but currently people aren't in the mood for another vote.

I'm gutted at that.  I'm livid at being dragged out of Europe and would dearly love the country to embrace a left of centre small country mentality but the Unionists have organised and the only thing left in our favour is the generational shift.

It's only when the independence vote is neither about hope or anger that we'll be most likely to win.  i.e. i'ts the natural, normal, calm point of view.  It'll only come with the generational change.

It is annoying I agree and deflating.

However, I do feel, since we get the gist the appetite for another indyref isn't there right now, that the SNP need to put it on the back-burner. Concentrate on governing to the best of their ability, build up the trust and faith in them and await the next incident when Westminster shoot themselves in the foot. It may be the resulting deal they get with Brexit - who knows? Take a rest from the push, push, pushing and people will warm to the idea again as there is still a mighty strong base of 1.5 million backers of independence. Now is the time to build on that.

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On 6/19/2017 at 10:19 PM, wheres the pies said:

Surly this is going to be the longest tread in the history of the tamb even longer than the rangers in crisis one 

I dunno, the Burdz ye'd love tae ride thread on the old board has to be up there. 

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1 hour ago, exile said:

Serious question

Is there anyone that really thought that we would apart from fishermen and farmers that were prepared to believe out of desperation ?

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On 15/07/2017 at 1:36 PM, Ally Bongo said:

Serious question

Is there anyone that really thought that we would apart from fishermen and farmers that were prepared to believe out of desperation ?

The current terms of devolution mean that agriculture, farming and fisheries should become a devolved issue automatically once the UK leaves the EU. The UK Government are effectively taking powers away from Holyrood by keeping hold of everything that 'comes back' from the EU. I'm not surprised that they're doing it, tbh, but the pro-independence parties need to shout this from the roof tops to make people realise what's going on.

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5 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

The current terms of devolution mean that agriculture, farming and fisheries should become a devolved issue automatically once the UK leaves the EU. The UK Government are effectively taking powers away from Holyrood by keeping hold of everything that 'comes back' from the EU. I'm not surprised that they're doing it, tbh, but the pro-independence parties need to shout this from the roof tops to make people realise what's going on.

Not just pro independence parties... Anyone who believes in devolution. Labour and Libdems should be right behind this. Labour on sticky patch due to their colleagues in Wales demanding similar redistribution.

 

Also note today that Welsh government joined Scottish government in demand barnett payments as a result of dup £1bn deal. Scottish labour would look awfully foolish if they don't back Welsh colleagues 

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11 minutes ago, exile said:

More than a dozen enclaves and islands have special legal status within the EU that could provide a model after Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/20/half-in-half-out-eu-territories-show-way-northern-ireland

Yup, but uk government not interested in anything remotely life that. Look at the call for differential immigration policy for Scotland similar to territories/states  Canada and Australia, not given any consideration. Nonsense approach so far to different solutions. 

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Reading between the lines I still think UK may crash out of the EU in the autumn.

It is clear UK government don't know what they want from Brexit - but realise they have made promises to voters they simply cant keep.  Therefore Johnny Foreigner will need to be blamed when it all goes wrong.

I really cant see the Tories having enough humility to pay the exit bill....
EU have them by balls as negotiations cant continue until they do.

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Anyone wanting to read what I believe is the definitive account of the EC Referendum campaign should get All Out War by Tim Shipman. Well written with a lot of personal details about the main players, their friendships and their enemies. Reading it you also wonder if anyone in the Tory party will ever vote for Boris Johnson as leader as he comes out of it as a duplicitous bar steward , funnily enough.

Edited by joecraigfanclub

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43 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

May is implying that Scotland is not a nation.  That is the logical conclusion of saying Sturgeon is not an "international leader".

 

Is the same stance being taken with the Welsh FM?

Edited by Alibi

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27 minutes ago, flumax said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/OleRyborg/status/892787997330083842

 

Screenshot_20170802_194002.png
where can i upload photos

 

Great news Imo. Shame so many in the north east were bought in to believing the opposite would be true during EU referendum and GE

Aye heres hoping, am done with sticking up for the fishermen(inshore lads not included) most but not all are greedy self serving bullies who would sell their grannys if the price was right,, final straw was when one flew a union jack flag from his mast,, honestly made me sick,,, most however still fly the saltire and have it painted on the side 

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32 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Aye heres hoping, am done with sticking up for the fishermen(inshore lads not included) most but not all are greedy self serving bullies who would sell their grannys if the price was right,, final straw was when one flew a union jack flag from his mast,, honestly made me sick,,, most however still fly the saltire and have it painted on the side 

I'm not saying fishermen don't get a rough deal. The discard ban /landing obligation is a disgrace, but let's not ignore that it was a British celebrity chef who convinced the UK public to lobby the UK government to lobby the EU to introduce it. Fishermen get high political weight for little economic contribution. Tough job, lots of restrictions, socially important. I admire bertie Armstrong for the voice he gives his members, but what a bawbag. Shame they don't employ more people instead of cheap labour from the Philippines or Ghana http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2014/09/7993/5

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I haven't read anything in this thread, but I think it's clear the direction the British Government is heading with these negotiations. The placing of border controls above everything else is an act of folly and I think people will slowly wake up to this fact, but I think that it will only be a few years after the UK's formally left the EU that people will realise what happened and it will be too late. I feel that the policies of the 'negotiation' team will lead to the UK crashing out without any deal with the EU - leading to a situation where the UK has no free trade deal with any country and is suddenly burdened with large tariffs on goods and services.

I think people believe that somehow the UK will get a better deal with the EU by being outside of the organisation. If that was the case, there would be no EU as everyone would leave to get a better deal. The negotiation strategy that the British Government should be adopting is one that involves Single Market membership, as that would allow the UK to retain free tariff access to the EU while having differing policies on certain issues. With Westminster announcing that they'll end free movement, that's not going to happen.

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6 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

I haven't read anything in this thread, but I think it's clear the direction the British Government is heading with these negotiations. The placing of border controls above everything else is an act of folly and I think people will slowly wake up to this fact, but I think that it will only be a few years after the UK's formally left the EU that people will realise what happened and it will be too late. I feel that the policies of the 'negotiation' team will lead to the UK crashing out without any deal with the EU - leading to a situation where the UK has no free trade deal with any country and is suddenly burdened with large tariffs on goods and services.

I think people believe that somehow the UK will get a better deal with the EU by being outside of the organisation. If that was the case, there would be no EU as everyone would leave to get a better deal. The negotiation strategy that the British Government should be adopting is one that involves Single Market membership, as that would allow the UK to retain free tariff access to the EU while having differing policies on certain issues. With Westminster announcing that they'll end free movement, that's not going to happen.

I actually think that the UK government's major red line is not freedom of movement itself but its the issues around sovereignty and particular the role of the ECJ.   That to me is what seems to be driving the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party and in particular the PM.  I think she has a personal problem with the ECJ which I suspect goes back to her time as Home Secretary and a real or perceived view that the ECJ was a barrier towards her doing her job.

I think they are all pretty relaxed about freedom of movement in principle as long as it's not the ECJ that enforces that.  I get the sense that it's an idealogical issue for the hard Brexiteers and not one they will compromise on.

The problem though is that the ECJ as the ultimate legal authority underpins the single market and there is no way that the EU will budge on that.

It's difficult to see any form of compromise at the moment with both sides adopting such intransigent positions.

 

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The Environment Secretary, 49, who only recently returned to the cabinet after the general election, said during a visit to Denmark yesterday: “Danish fishermen will still be able to catch large amounts of fish in British waters, even if the British leave the EU.”

Is Gove positioning himself that brexit not set in stone?

http://archive.is/rbjOf

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9 hours ago, aaid said:

I actually think that the UK government's major red line is not freedom of movement itself but its the issues around sovereignty and particular the role of the ECJ.   That to me is what seems to be driving the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party and in particular the PM.  I think she has a personal problem with the ECJ which I suspect goes back to her time as Home Secretary and a real or perceived view that the ECJ was a barrier towards her doing her job.

I think they are all pretty relaxed about freedom of movement in principle as long as it's not the ECJ that enforces that.  I get the sense that it's an idealogical issue for the hard Brexiteers and not one they will compromise on.

The problem though is that the ECJ as the ultimate legal authority underpins the single market and there is no way that the EU will budge on that.

It's difficult to see any form of compromise at the moment with both sides adopting such intransigent positions.

 


Yip - it is clear the UK government don't actually know what they want from Brexit.
Therefore negotiations will soon come to a stand still.

Final solution will take one of these formats.

1) Hard brexit.  Break all ties, no ECJ, no free movement, no EU payments. Huge risk for UK economy.
2) Soft Brexit / EEA membership.  Like Norway / CH. Swap free movement for single market access.
3) Customs Union (Turkish style).  Looser formal arrangement but cant make our own trade deals.

The obvious problem is that Boris has promised voters a solution that is simply unobtainable (limiting immigration while remaining in single market).  The longer it goes on the harder this lie becomes harder to admit.  Meanwhile the chances of UK falling out of EU increase...

I reckon it is going to be total gong-show - but the mess will take a couple of years to properly unfold.

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