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Flure

The Brexit Thread

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On 6/20/2017 at 1:47 PM, Orraloon said:

One week of talks every month. 

Danke schöne.

I was told this as well by my non-politico friend too. So maybe I was wanting looking hard enough :)

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13 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Danke schöne.

I was told this as well by my non-politico friend too. So maybe I was wanting looking hard enough :)

I don't have much interest in it really. It was in the link posted by Haggis Trap. Everything you ever need to know is covered by the TAMB.:lol:

I am fairly sure the most reliable information will come from the EU side. That's where to look. The coverage from the UK side will be just union jack waving, rule brittania singing nonsense. 

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I am suspicious that having had its views, opinions and proposals studiously ignored, the Scottish parliament is now being wheeled centre stage.

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11 minutes ago, Flure said:

I am suspicious that having had its views, opinions and proposals studiously ignored, the Scottish parliament is now being wheeled centre stage.

I haven't noticed that. What's happening?

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"

Scottish MSPs could have the power to block the Brexit Great Repeal Bill, Theresa May has admitted.

The Prime Minister revealed Holyrood may have to pass a “legislative consent motion” in order for the bill, which would see Brussels legislation transfer to the House of Commons statute book, to be passed into law at Westminster.

Mrs May was responding to a question from SNP MP Stewart McDonald, who asked if such a motion would be required of the Scottish Parliament for the bill to be passed.

She said: “There is a possibility that a legislative consent motion may be required in the Scottish Parliament, but that is a matter that is being considered currently between the Westminster and the Scottish government.”

A Downing Street spokesperson confirmed they are “looking at” the matter.

A consent motion is required when when Westminster MPs put forward a law on matters usually devolved to regional governments.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell previously predicted that such a vote would be needed and warned there would be “very serious consequences” for Brexit if Scots decided to block the bill.

Speaking in January, he said: “I think there are really big issues that will be in the Great Repeal Bill.

“There will be issues around powers for this parliament and there will be issues around whether we have a hole in our law because the body of European law hasn’t been adopted.

“So not agreeing to the Repeal Bill would have very significant consequences.”

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1 hour ago, Flure said:

I am suspicious that having had its views, opinions and proposals studiously ignored, the Scottish parliament is now being wheeled centre stage.

Creates an opportunity for the Tories to attempt to tarnish the SNP as undemocratic if they don't respect the wider UK-vote for Brexit. Now that Tories have gained in rural NE which was borderline Brexit-country it is easier to paint the picture of a divided Scotland. This would give Tories further strength against the SNP. If the SNP did have the nuts to vote down a Brexit bill in Holyrood then it would:  1) Create a bigger divide between Scotland & England.  2) Make life more difficult for the SNP  

Probably be a win/win for the Tories. They probably get to make the SNP look bad either way and if by some miracle the SNP managed to block Brexit then it would probably please a lot of the Tory party! 

 

 

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1 minute ago, AlfieMoon said:

Creates an opportunity for the Tories to attempt to tarnish the SNP as undemocratic if they don't respect the wider UK-vote for Brexit. Now that Tories have gained in rural NE which was borderline Brexit-country it is easier to paint the picture of a divided Scotland. This would give Tories further strength against the SNP. If the SNP did have the nuts to vote down a Brexit bill in Holyrood then it would:  1) Create a bigger divide between Scotland & England.  2) Make life more difficult for the SNP  

Probably be a win/win for the Tories. They probably get to make the SNP look bad either way and if by some miracle the SNP managed to block Brexit then it would probably please a lot of the Tory party! 

 

 

And pave the way for a whole host of powers to be "repatriated" to The Mother of Parliaments.

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1 hour ago, killiefaetheferry said:

If only there was something the Scottish parliament wanted permission for in return.......oh wait !

I suspect the quid pro quo will be a seat at the Brexit negotiating table rather than a section 30 order for another referendum. 

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1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said:

Creates an opportunity for the Tories to attempt to tarnish the SNP as undemocratic if they don't respect the wider UK-vote for Brexit. Now that Tories have gained in rural NE which was borderline Brexit-country it is easier to paint the picture of a divided Scotland. This would give Tories further strength against the SNP. If the SNP did have the nuts to vote down a Brexit bill in Holyrood then it would:  1) Create a bigger divide between Scotland & England.  2) Make life more difficult for the SNP  

Probably be a win/win for the Tories. They probably get to make the SNP look bad either way and if by some miracle the SNP managed to block Brexit then it would probably please a lot of the Tory party! 

 

 

I think you are right - that is their plan.

Of course - Scotland doesn't actually have a veto on "Brexit".  However Holyrood does get to vote on the great repeal bill - where EU laws are passed back to UK.  Many of these are devolved issues (such as farming or fishing).  Now : if Holyrood votes down the great repeal bill then Westminster may have to use it "sovereign-veto" for the first time ever in the history of devolution. 

As you might imagine this will create a massive constitutional and legal mess. 
I can't imagine that the democratically elected parliament of Scotland being over-ridden by Westminster will go unnoticed ;-)
My interpretation is they are running scared of the mess they have created.

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29 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

As you might imagine this will create a massive constitutional and legal mess. 
I can't imagine that the democratically elected parliament of Scotland being over-ridden by Westminster will go unnoticed ;-)
My interpretation is they are running scared of the mess they have created.

Will it?  They overrode a vote only the other month and the people barely cared.

edit:  for barely cared read ditched the SNP per constituency in their thousands.

Starting to face reality, most people don't care about scottish sovereignty all that much.  The people only care about themselves.  We're Scottish but we won't get bothered overly by London telling us what to do.

 

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31 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

I think you are right - that is their plan.

Of course - Scotland doesn't actually have a veto on "Brexit".  However Holyrood does get to vote on the great repeal bill - where EU laws are passed back to UK.  Many of these are devolved issues (such as farming or fishing).  Now : if Holyrood votes down the great repeal bill then Westminster may have to use it "sovereign-veto" for the first time ever in the history of devolution. 

As you might imagine this will create a massive constitutional and legal mess. 
I can't imagine that the democratically elected parliament of Scotland being over-ridden by Westminster will go unnoticed ;-)
My interpretation is they are running scared of the mess they have created.

That's true, but if the SG did vote down the bill it could easily be percived that they only did so to be awkward, meaning folk get angrier with them than WM.

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6 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Will it?  They overrode a vote only the other month and the people barely cared.

edit:  for barely cared read ditched the SNP per constituency in their thousands.

Starting to face reality, most people don't care about scottish sovereignty all that much.  The people only care about themselves.  We're Scottish but we won't get bothered overly by London telling us what to do.

 

Sadly, I think you might be right.  I reckon there's a large number of people who wouldn't care too much if Holyrood was abolished altogether; some folk would even prefer it that way.  After all, the argument for devolution is more or less the same as it is for independence and we voted against that.

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21 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Sadly, I think you might be right.  I reckon there's a large number of people who wouldn't care too much if Holyrood was abolished altogether; some folk would even prefer it that way.  After all, the argument for devolution is more or less the same as it is for independence and we voted against that.

i think a big majority of people like that we have our own parliament.  but when it comes to Brexit and big stuff like Independence, they're not so fussed if our Parliament is overruled.

 

It's not Ulsterfication that's happened; it's Catalanisation.  And it's practically complete.

Edited by PapofGlencoe

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^ Such negativity.
I think support for independence still stands about a healthy 45%.
In historical context that is as high as it has ever been.

SNP got 40% at general election - for various reasons (Corbyn / Brexit etc) some YES voters may have backed other parties.
However : it is important not to take the general election result and assume independence is "off the table".
This is exactly what the Tory establishment want you to do and believe.
With such negative sentiment you are playing into their hands and the soft coup on democracy they are attempting to initiate.

The SNP don't want a second independence referendum just yet - the result is still too close to be sure we could win.
However it must remain as option for 2 simple reasons.

1) We don't have any idea what Brexit means for Scotland.  Why give up your most valuable negotiating chip ?  Especially when Scotland have been locked out of brexit negotiations.  Keeping independence on table stops Tories trading away Scottish assets (like fishing).
2) The SNP won most seats in Scotland.  There is basic principal of democracy here.   The losers don't get to call the shots.

Strap in for the long haul.
The general election was disappointing but this has a long way to run yet.
Independence remains a long game - and not predicated on brexit alone.

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47 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Will it?  They overrode a vote only the other month and the people barely cared.

edit:  for barely cared read ditched the SNP per constituency in their thousands.

Starting to face reality, most people don't care about scottish sovereignty all that much.  The people only care about themselves.  We're Scottish but we won't get bothered overly by London telling us what to do.

 

If you are talking about the vote to request a section 30 order then technically the UK government hasn't overridden that, they've just kicked it into the long grass.

The difference in this case would be that doing nothing wouldn't be an option for Westminster as to pass the legislation for the entire UK they would need to override Holyrood.

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23 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

i think a big majority of people like that we have our own parliament.  but when it comes to Brexit and big stuff like Independence, they're not so fussed if our Parliament is overruled.

 

I'm not so sure about that, there was a poll in March that asked whether Westminster or Holyrood should make the decision on whether to hold another independence referendums.  61% said Holyrood, 39% Westminster.  

What's important about that is clearly a significant number of people who are opposed to having another referendum *still* think that it should be Holyrood's decision.

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14 minutes ago, aaid said:

I'm not so sure about that, there was a poll in March that asked whether Westminster or Holyrood should make the decision on whether to hold another independence referendums.  61% said Holyrood, 39% Westminster.  

What's important about that is clearly a significant number of people who are opposed to having another referendum *still* think that it should be Holyrood's decision.

I'm aware of this.  I think it's entirely probable that people think it should be Holyrood's decision AND that they're not ultimately so fussed if Westminster overrule it simultaneously.

And that's not taking into account 4 in 10, of our own people, don't even support the first part of that statement.

Edited by PapofGlencoe

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^ remember that many of those who (we are told) oppose a second referendum simply wish to wait and see what brexit means.
dont believe the unionist lies - they want us to believe that independence is "off the table" / unwanted.
in reality support for independence has stayed solid since 2014 at ~45%.

this is a long game. 
remember Scotland clearly also doesn't want brexit ;-)
however that fact doesn't immediately translate into support for independence unless you are already inclined that way.

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2 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

^ remember that many of those who (we are told) oppose a second referendum simply wish to wait and see what brexit means.
dont believe the unionist lies - they want us to believe that independence is "off the table" / unwanted.
in reality support for independence has stayed solid since 2014 at ~45%.

this is a long game. 
remember Scotland clearly also doesn't want brexit ;-)
however that fact doesn't immediately translate into support for independence unless you are already inclined that way.

bobbing around in the low 40s means it will always be around but it's not happening anytime soon.

There was a pressure point after Brexit where the country nearly went in an independence momentum.  But the narrative wasn't held.  Gibraltar, Ireland and Brexit bill became the main issues.  

Not enough was made of EU noises in our favour.  Do you ever hear anyone saying how easy it would be for us to join?  

The SNP wasn't brave.  It could have said anything over X number of seats means we will demand some sort of Scottish deal as part of the negotiations.  Takes both Brexit and non-Brexit people with us.

 

 

 

 

 

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^ On reflection the SNP called IndyRef2.0 too early. 
The UK as a whole has been lured into false sense of security that Brexit would be OK : simply because it has been delayed for entire year!

When deciding to call IndyRef2.0 Nicola had some obvious problems....

1) The SNP have been locked out of Brexit negotiations.
2) No one expected May would be daft enough to call a general election. 
3) Independence could have given Scotland opportunity to remain in EU without even exiting.

As result of jumping the gun the general election was a bad night for SNP. 
However we still won most Scottish seats and votes.
Lessons will be learned - next time the UK goes to ballot box the full horror of Brexit will have unfolded and Lab / Con will need to defend it.

Independence is very much still on the table - but we need to be patient and play the long game.
Only calm reasonable arguments will win over the extra 10-15% of voters required to ensure it happens.

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The SNP misjudged the pro-EU stance and who knows it may well work in the future after Brexit, and I can see why they went down that path. 62% voting to remain is a huge number and when you get 45% in a referendum 18 months previously it looks like a natural progression ; but the swing towards Indy hasn't moved much, if any at all in the past few years. And the likes of JK Rowling are never going to vote for independence, so whilst it was a honoruable charge, it probably won't ever work. Still there are people to be won over and Independence is definitely achievable. Are we really that pro European anyway? I am, but as a nation? Are we just not feart of change, so why the big 62% yes?  

If you look at the election result, both the SNP and Lib Dems put the EU or access to the single and common market, and the Libs even going for a second referendum and both parties struggled in the election. Although Scotland was a different thing and there was an anti-independence vote that turned out, the Lib Dems sole gains came from Scotland alone and I'm guessing it wasn't from being pro-EU, rather more to do with Unionists picking the best candidate to beat the SNP.  

Labour (not SLAB of course) probably had the right balance about Europe. At the time it felt like it was a shrug of the shoulders from them, but you can understand it - large areas of Labour supporting regions voted for it - and it seems their balance of we're leaving the EU, but we'll get a good deal worked and their voters in their traditional areas in England after flirting and even voting for UKIP returned home. The Tories were tipped to win the likes of Bolton, Bishop Auckland, big areas of Birmingham, Wales, etc and they failed to do so.

Saying that, the SNP would be unwise to take a referendum off the table next week. Not only would they lose further support and members; the Unionists and media would have a field day with that. I'd like to see them announce that for now we will fight for a cross-party coalition and for the UK to remain in the single market and once Brexit is finalised and we see how things are going, we can then decide if we wish to have another referendum. That might cause problems though for a future referendum, as Brexit might happen after 2021, it might never happen! And if there is a Holyrood election then maybe there won't be a pro-independence majority to pass another bill on a referendum.

 

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