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On ‎3‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 1:11 AM, Clyde1998 said:

She'll try and find a way out of it, although it's entirely irrational to suggest that the UK could leave the customs union and there not be customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic, or Britain and Ireland (should NI be kept in the customs union).

The border between Spain and Gibraltar is another major issue that no-one seems to be talking about - the Spanish only opened that border as a result of them joining the European Community and seems to be suggesting that they'll close it again one the UK leaves. That will hit Gibraltar hard, considering that a very large percentage of Gibraltarians work in Spain.

The position of the UK Government just seems to be a ploy to blame the EU for everything going wrong after the UK leaves the EU.

 

According to Juan Jose Uceda, from the Spanish Workers' Association; "virtually all the labour/traffic flows in one direction - Spain to Gibraltar".

 

He also said, "La Linea de la Concepcion, has a population of 70,000 -  there are around 12,000 people out of work there, Gibraltar is an escape", he said, "for so many people suffering a really bad situation here".

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  • 2 months later...

Brexit plan drawn up for border checks between NI and rest of UK

Exclusive: Leaked paper reveals backup proposal to avoid hard land border with Ireland

ttps://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/04/irish-border-backup-plan-suggests-checks-ports-airports-brexit

Would the DUP ever accept an " Irish Sea" border between NI & GB?

Would EU/RoI ever accept island of Ireland having regulations that differed from rest of EU?

Would EU/RoI accept a hard border between RoI and NI?

If the answers are no then surely UK Govt has to concede to some sort of single market or customs union...but they still seem in denial...

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14 hours ago, Padre Andrew said:

I don't think it's denial, they're just in a complete state of confusion.

Would be pathetic and a bit funny if it wasn't so serious.

Maybe, though I find it hard to believe some of them aren't knowing exactly what has to give, and are playing for time, and when the cards are played someone will walk away as PM. 

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Theresa May says trust me - but still in denial

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-implores-brexit-rebels-trust-me-i-wont-let-you-down-xgs9s0jnm

Here you can see* in stark reality the fantasy she is still trying to peddle, where (in the first half) she insists she will honour all the "take back control" brexit promises, while in the second half insists that she won't endanger the precious union, peace or trade. 

But it can't be all of these things, something has to give. The cabinet is at war with itself over it.

Someone or something has to be sacrificed. Maybe the PM...

And here*, Adam Boulton thinks that maybe she "could smuggle through a “soft” Brexit at the last minute as the only deal on offer". I still think this is the likeliest option  (where hard Brexiteers are sacrificed, along with fishing, etc) imagining with May still as PM. Otherwise, I could imagine a coup deposing her, to avoid this scenario, but it could lead to chaos in Ireland and DUP going off a loose cannon and a threat to the precious precious Union. Oh dear

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/a-slip-here-a-stumble-there-but-the-pm-is-slowly-sliding-out-of-hard-brexits-grip-v0rc83pff

* I'll try to see if there is an archive or summary elsewhere

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It goes to show the extreme Tory bias in the press.

Here we are deep in discussion over Brexit and look at how those taking sole control of the discussions - May and Johnson. As May tries to cobble together yet another solution at a customs partnership that has morphed from a customs deal and prior to that from a customs union we have Boris Johnson on US TV saying any customs deal would be crazy. Two of the most powerful people in the government at loggerheads as time runs out yet the media dare not mention it.

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It looks as if the Govt are still swearing blind we can have all the benefits of Brexit - independent trade policy and control of borders - and none of the problems - being shut out the European market and hard borders.

I'm starting to think, they'll take the option that's easiest to fake. You can't hide a hard border or an avalanche of lost contracts, but you could have a soft border and pretend it was being controlled invisibly, and maybe no one will notice the back door alignment of trade policy and uncountable invisible immigrants - so, business as usual.

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I fully expect Westminster to keep the devolved EU powers and crack on with the Brexit Bill regardless. The real worrying thing to me is that unionist Scots won't see any harm in that so we will be in a status quo. As in Brexit happening, Westminster keeping devolved powers and the independence support remaining much the same. The only difference I think there will be will be a big drop off in the Scottish Tory votes in the next election.

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6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

 The real worrying thing to me is that unionist Scots won't see any harm in that so we will be in a status quo.

I agree.

I think that those of us who see the advantage in having Holyrood and are supporters of independence, will be very angry.

Whilst those who don't, won't.

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9 minutes ago, Flure said:

I agree.

I think that those of us who see the advantage in having Holyrood and are supporters of independence, will be very angry.

Whilst those who don't, won't.

Precisely. Polls and analysis from the last indyref shows that 62% of no voters had made up their mind that is how they would vote before campaigning begun. Those same people will have no gripes about Westminster totally blanking the 1998 Scotland Act and keeping the devolved powers.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Precisely. Polls and analysis from the last indyref shows that 62% of no voters had made up their mind that is how they would vote before campaigning begun. Those same people will have no gripes about Westminster rubbing the 1998 Scotland Act and keeping the devolved powers.

I would go as far as to say a reasonable proportion do not know what is currently devolved and what is not.  

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Just now, TDYER63 said:

I would go as far as to say a reasonable proportion do not know what is currently devolved and what is not.  

And that situation is not improved when, during council and Holyrood elections, candidates are asked questions - by media and opponents - about matters reserved to Westminster.

Or, for council candidates, about matters dealt with by Holyrood.

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4 minutes ago, Flure said:

And that situation is not improved when, during council and Holyrood elections, candidates are asked questions - by media and opponents - about matters reserved to Westminster.

Or, for council candidates, about matters dealt with by Holyrood.

Indeed.

Does the Scottish government have leaflets / flowchart literature on devolved/reserved powers? They could do worse than publish something easy to read. 

I am just leaving a train , will catch up over a beer 👍

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11 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Those same people will have no gripes about Westminster rubbing the 1998 Scotland Act and keeping the devolved powers.

That I'm not so sure about, outside of the uber-Unionists devolution remains the preferred constitutional arrangement. All parties other than the Tories supported the SNP this week.

I think any concerted effort to undermine devolution will be noted by a large section of the electorate, but I don't think the impact of a "power grab" on public opinion will really be apparent until a while after it's actually happened.

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1 minute ago, Toepoke said:

That I'm not so sure about, outside of the uber-Unionists devolution remains the preferred constitutional arrangement. All parties other than the Tories supported the SNP this week.

I think any concerted effort to undermine devolution will be noted by a large section of the electorate, but I don't think the impact of a "power grab" on public opinion will really be apparent until a while after it's actually happened.

Surely, the uber-Unionists are those 62% who knew how they were going to vote prior to the campaigning starting in the last indyref. Those are the ones I am saying won't give a stuff about devolved powers and who were against devolution to begin with.

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5 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Indeed.

Does the Scottish government have leaflets / flowchart literature on devolved/reserved powers? They could do worse than publish something easy to read. 

I am just leaving a train , will catch up over a beer 👍

Well, not Council but this leaflet explains the different roles of the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Government, the UK Parliament and the European Parliament.

http://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/105911.aspx

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19 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I would go as far as to say a reasonable proportion do not know what is currently devolved and what is not.  

Richard Leonard being one of them...

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14 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Surely, the uber-Unionists are those 62% who knew how they were going to vote prior to the campaigning starting in the last indyref. Those are the ones I am saying won't give a stuff about devolved powers and who were against devolution to begin with.

Not necessarily. For example I'm pretty sure most Labour and LibDem MSPs who voted with the SNP this week, knew how they were going to vote in 2014.

 

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

That I'm not so sure about, outside of the uber-Unionists devolution remains the preferred constitutional arrangement. All parties other than the Tories supported the SNP this week.

I think any concerted effort to undermine devolution will be noted by a large section of the electorate, but I don't think the impact of a "power grab" on public opinion will really be apparent until a while after it's actually happened.

I think that's pretty accurate just as the full extent of Brexit will not be felt or understood until some time after its happened*.    If you look at the Scottish Social Survey results since 1999 support for the option of "No Scottish Parliament" is generally around the 10% level, it is not a popular position.  The vast majority of No voters want a level of devolution, some may want more than there currently is, some less, some the same.   However, not being happen with the direction of travel as regards devolution does not necessarily mean that someone will necessarily come to the conclusion that Independence is the answer.   

*Personally I don't think Brexit will ever actually happen in any meaningful way.

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1 hour ago, stocky said:

Richard Leonard being one of them...

I suspect Richard Leonard and the rest of the Labour Party are very well aware of what is reserved and what is devolved.    They ask questions about "Why aren't the SNP doing something about reserved area X" because they know that won't be challenged on this and it's a chip, chip, chip at reinforcing a narrative that the SNP government are failing.

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