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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Subsamples for the latest BMG polls are very concerning, i apreciate that its a subsample, The SNP and labour have completely swapped positions 

 Labour 44%, SNP 27%, Conservatives 18%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 2%

If people are daft enough to return to Labour based on Corbyn, they are pretty stupid.  Certainly won't get independence that way and if there were any accuracy in that subsample it would suggest that nearly 20% of indy voters would be prepared to vote Labour - fool me once, fool me twice, who is shamed when it's fool me thrice?

I do think the SNP need to show a bit more dynamicism and seize the initiative instead of letting that vacuous fool Corbyn get away with his vague pronouncements that fall apart at the slightest scrutiny.

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3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Subsamples for the latest BMG polls are very concerning, i apreciate that its a subsample, The SNP and labour have completely swapped positions 

 Labour 44%, SNP 27%, Conservatives 18%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 2%

I don't believe that Labour are in front but the gap between will be very narrow.

What would be more interesting is Scottish voting intention poll for Westminister and Holyrood. I'd imagine SNP lead would be a lot more comfortable at Holyrood (although dipping) as part of the Labour vote in Scotland is the old keep Conservatives out.

For Ruth she has nearly hit her peak. At best she can add 2 or 3 more Westminister seats. She will only keep a hold of a few marginals because Labour and SNP split the opposition vote on who is best to keep her out. I sadly think the North East is stuck with Conservatives although Aberdeen and Gordon could swing back.

BUT I really don't think now or the last general election are times to judge what is going to happen to politics in the future. Once Brexit is over parties will properly be judged for there actions during it. Also looking forward to the UK parties being judged when they get back to doing there day job. Till then it is damage limitation for the SNP as I don't think there is anything they can do at the moment.

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1 hour ago, drew said:

I don't believe that Labour are in front but the gap between will be very narrow.

What would be more interesting is Scottish voting intention poll for Westminister and Holyrood. I'd imagine SNP lead would be a lot more comfortable at Holyrood (although dipping) as part of the Labour vote in Scotland is the old keep Conservatives out.

For Ruth she has nearly hit her peak. At best she can add 2 or 3 more Westminister seats. She will only keep a hold of a few marginals because Labour and SNP split the opposition vote on who is best to keep her out. I sadly think the North East is stuck with Conservatives although Aberdeen and Gordon could swing back.

BUT I really don't think now or the last general election are times to judge what is going to happen to politics in the future. Once Brexit is over parties will properly be judged for there actions during it. Also looking forward to the UK parties being judged when they get back to doing there day job. Till then it is damage limitation for the SNP as I don't think there is anything they can do at the moment.

Moray, banff n buchan along with gordon will return to the snp next election i could put a bet on that right now,,its the central belt which worrys me,,I completely agree with the damage limitation part,, the party should keep the head down for a good year,, while quietly planning an election strategy.I also think sturgeon is seriously damaged and many will not vote SNP until she has stepped down. 

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31 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Moray, banff n buchan along with gordon will return to the snp next election i could put a bet on that right now,,its the central belt which worrys me,,I completely agree with the damage limitation part,, the party should keep the head down for a good year,, while quietly planning an election strategy.I also think sturgeon is seriously damaged and many will not vote SNP until she has stepped down. 

I don't see Moray & banff n buchan returning soon. SNP Brexit stance was never going to be popular there but it was the correct stance and only 2 constituencies.

I don't think Sturgeon is seriously damaged long term. She played the 2nd indyref card too quickly and should have handled business rates better but the big issue with Labour gaining ground has nothing to do with SNP policy. It is purely a love for Corbyn by some and a hope that voting for him gets rid of the Conservatives for others. The SNP are stuck in a stuff spot where all they can do is come up with sensible policies and governing and wait for Brexit to be overwith. As long as they don't do anything stupid that support should trickle back in a year or 2.

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5 hours ago, drew said:

I don't see Moray & banff n buchan returning soon. SNP Brexit stance was never going to be popular there but it was the correct stance and only 2 constituencies.

I don't think Sturgeon is seriously damaged long term. She played the 2nd indyref card too quickly and should have handled business rates better but the big issue with Labour gaining ground has nothing to do with SNP policy. It is purely a love for Corbyn by some and a hope that voting for him gets rid of the Conservatives for others. The SNP are stuck in a stuff spot where all they can do is come up with sensible policies and governing and wait for Brexit to be overwith. As long as they don't do anything stupid that support should trickle back in a year or 2.

With regards to moray and B and buchan,, both held up reasonably well and that's  in-spite of their brexit stance,, it will be peak tory in both regions with many giving their vote to the torys through grinded teeth,and the great trade off has yet to be unveiled.it would help if Stewart stevenson stood aside as he is basically invisible, there is a wee whisper that he will ,with alec salmond returning to stand for election in his political home,,, (i hope its more than a whisper)

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5 hours ago, drew said:

I don't see Moray & banff n buchan returning soon. SNP Brexit stance was never going to be popular there but it was the correct stance and only 2 constituencies.

I don't think Sturgeon is seriously damaged long term. She played the 2nd indyref card too quickly and should have handled business rates better but the big issue with Labour gaining ground has nothing to do with SNP policy. It is purely a love for Corbyn by some and a hope that voting for him gets rid of the Conservatives for others. The SNP are stuck in a stuff spot where all they can do is come up with sensible policies and governing and wait for Brexit to be overwith. As long as they don't do anything stupid that support should trickle back in a year or 2.

I think there is a very strong chance of another GE. Brexit so far has been a shambles, I can see a motion of no confidence coming. I can also see this strengthening Labour in Scotland, but due to Corbyn not SLAB. 

It begs the question, what do people want more? An independent Scotland or remaining part of the Uk under a Labour coalition?

I can understand why people are wavering between the SNP and Corbyn. They are looking for a change from Tories and feel that Labour , under Corbyn ,would provide a quick fix.

For me people need to be looking more longer term , if they really want to try and change things they need to stick with the SNP,  if only as a protest. I agree that it is generally not the Snp's policies that have/would lose them seats, though I do think there are areas where things could most certainly be improved. 

NS is in a difficult position. People who support the Union are going to despise any leader of the SNP.  Alex Salmond had it tough towards the end of Indyref when it looked like a big upset could be on the cards. Prior to that people tolerated him even if they didnt like him. NS has had to deal with the aftermath of Indyref and now Brexit. She is demonised to a ridiculous level. 

I am returning from 2 days in England meeting clients with an English colleague. During the course of today I have sat in meetings where she is constantly referred to as Wee Jimmy Krankie and that all the English convicts should be shipped to the scottish islands to shut her up.

There was much guffawing , I like to think I have a decent sense of humour but found nothing funny in this. I would never in any business meeting refer to the British PM in such derogatory terms . 

They had no idea where I sat politically. Had I been 'on the fence' I would be rooting for independance in a hearbeat. 

 

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18 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I think there is a very strong chance of another GE. Brexit so far has been a shambles, I can see a motion of no confidence coming. I can also see this strengthening Labour in Scotland, but due to Corbyn not SLAB. 

Immediately after the GE I couldn't see the government lasting the year, now I'm pretty sure they will see out the full term or at least until after Brexit - if and when that actually is.

They've bought off the DUP which gives them a buffer.  I get the impression that none of the Tory MPs would vote against the government, which would be required to win a vote of no confidence.   No matter how pissed off they might be with whatever mess they make of Brexit - and there is no way they can please all of the Tory party - the alternative as far as they are concerned would be 1000 times worse  

That situation could change with a few by-elections, I think it would only take 7 or 8 seats to go from Tories to one of the opposition parties for them to lose their overall majority even including the DUP.  

There's likely to be one next year as Craig Mackinley is up in court for election fraud relating to the 2015 GE.  If the stuff that Channel 4 had on that contest is true, it looks like a slam dunk.   As things stand now, that would almost certainly go to Labour if the recent council elections are any indication.

 

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1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

I think there is a very strong chance of another GE. Brexit so far has been a shambles, I can see a motion of no confidence coming. I can also see this strengthening Labour in Scotland, but due to Corbyn not SLAB. 

It begs the question, what do people want more? An independent Scotland or remaining part of the Uk under a Labour coalition?

I can understand why people are wavering between the SNP and Corbyn. They are looking for a change from Tories and feel that Labour , under Corbyn ,would provide a quick fix.

For me people need to be looking more longer term , if they really want to try and change things they need to stick with the SNP,  if only as a protest. I agree that it is generally not the Snp's policies that have/would lose them seats, though I do think there are areas where things could most certainly be improved. 

NS is in a difficult position. People who support the Union are going to despise any leader of the SNP.  Alex Salmond had it tough towards the end of Indyref when it looked like a big upset could be on the cards. Prior to that people tolerated him even if they didnt like him. NS has had to deal with the aftermath of Indyref and now Brexit. She is demonised to a ridiculous level. 

I am returning from 2 days in England meeting clients with an English colleague. During the course of today I have sat in meetings where she is constantly referred to as Wee Jimmy Krankie and that all the English convicts should be shipped to the scottish islands to shut her up.

There was much guffawing , I like to think I have a decent sense of humour but found nothing funny in this. I would never in any business meeting refer to the British PM in such derogatory terms . 

They had no idea where I sat politically. Had I been 'on the fence' I would be rooting for independance in a hearbeat. 

 

Unfortunately the relentless media demonising of sturgeon has worked a treat and i cant see the perception of her changing any time soon.she has made a few gaffs aswell which doesn't help  

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11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Unfortunately the relentless media demonising of sturgeon has worked a treat and i cant see the perception of her changing any time soon.she has made a few gaffs aswell which doesn't help  

Who are you going to replace her with?

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48 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Who are you going to replace her with?

hampdenloon, the great oracle, refused to answer that when I asked him in the past.

I suspect he's going to suggest that fool Alex Neil MSP or someone like that for leader. 

Hampdenloon wants the SNP to become a regional issue party (focus on the North-East, fishing and oil) and has made the bewildering claim in the past that he thinks the SNP becoming an anti-EU and anti-immigration party is the way forward. Unbelievable. If the SNP ever did become poisoned by that kind of crap I would transfer my allegiances to the Scottish Greens without hesitation and I wouldn't be the only one.

His claim that the SNP need to avoid talking about Brexit is simply incredible. It's a fecking massive issue, one of the biggest of our times, it's impossible to ignore it.

SNP MP's and MSPs are being inundated with EU citizens concerned about what's going to happen to them and their families when the UK officially leaves. Businesses want information on how Brexit will effect them not to mention their employees. To claim that the SNP should "keep their heads down" on Brexit is jaw dropping stupidity. Areas such as Argyll, the Western Highlands, the Inner Hebridies and the Outer Hebridies have had some fantastic investment from the EU over the years and look to their SNP MP's and MSP's to fight for them at this dreadful moment in time.

Moray, Gordon, Angus and Banff & Buchan will be recovered one day but in the mean time we just have to swallow our bitter pill and get on with it. 

The SNP in the North-East should also make it crystal clear, instead of pussy footing around the subject like they did in the past, that the party is very much pro-European and supportive of the Common Fisheries Policy.

I wish those fools up there who voted leave and for the Conservative's good luck when Gove and Co sell them down the river in the final negotiations.

And also when the local industries start panicking as soon as it becomes clear that the EU nationals are packing their bags for another more welcoming (and smarter) fishing region and that the young folk of the region are not interested in poorly paid, manky jobs in fish processing and canning. Or are not impressed by Dad and Granddad's exaggerated macho tales of a miserable, dangerous life at sea in a trawler.

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8 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

hampdenloon, the great oracle, refused to answer that when I asked him in the past.

I suspect he's going to suggest that fool Alex Neil MSP or someone like that for leader. 

Hampdenloon wants the SNP to become a regional issue party (focus on the North-East, fishing and oil) and has made the bewildering claim in the past that he thinks the SNP becoming an anti-EU and anti-immigration party is the way forward. Unbelievable. If the SNP ever did become poisoned by that kind of crap I would transfer my allegiances to the Scottish Greens without hesitation and I wouldn't be the only one.

His claim that the SNP need to avoid talking about Brexit is simply incredible. It's a fecking massive issue, one of the biggest of our times, it's impossible to ignore it.

SNP MP's and MSPs are being inundated with EU citizens concerned about what's going to happen to them and their families when the UK officially leaves. Businesses want information on how Brexit will effect them not to mention their employees. To claim that the SNP should "keep their heads down" on Brexit is jaw dropping stupidity. Areas such as Argyll, the Western Highlands, the Inner Hebridies and the Outer Hebridies have had some fantastic investment from the EU over the years and look to their SNP MP's and MSP's to fight for them at this dreadful moment in time.

Moray, Gordon, Angus and Banff & Buchan will be recovered one day but in the mean time we just have to swallow our bitter pill and get on with it. 

The SNP in the North-East should also make it crystal clear, instead of pussy footing around the subject like they did in the past, that the party is very much pro-European and supportive of the Common Fisheries Policy.

I wish those fools up there who voted leave and for the Conservative's good luck when Gove and Co sell them down the river in the final negotiations.

And also when the local industries start panicking as soon as it becomes clear that the EU nationals are packing their bags for another more welcoming (and smarter) fishing region and that the young folk of the region are not interested in poorly paid, manky jobs in fish processing and canning. Or are not impressed by Dad and Granddad's exaggerated macho tales of a miserable, dangerous life at sea in a trawler.

Alec neil would be a terrible choice,you ridiculed me previously for suggesting that the snp's anti brexit stance would backfire and look how that ended up,you also ridiculed me for saying the snp would do well to gain above 35 seats at the last GE, looked what happened, maybe you're right that i am the great oracle or perhaps its a case of scottish  foresight  

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1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Not to sure who would be the best candidate, plans should be put in place just now for the eventual stepping down of sturgeon just as alec had a ready made replacement in sturgeon when he steeped down.

Sturgeon is a good leader. You just hate her because she's pro-EU and pro-immigration. 

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Alec neil would be a terrible choice,you ridiculed me previously for suggesting that the snp's anti brexit stance would backfire and look how that ended up,you also ridiculed me for saying the snp would do well to gain above 35 seats at the last GE, looked what happened, maybe you're right that i am the great oracle or perhaps its a case of scottish  foresight  

It's quite sad that your almost gleefully celebrating the fact that the unionist tripartite gained seats from the SNP just so that you can prove a snarky wee point. 

Yes I was very wrong about the amount of seats lost but the SNP's anti-Brexit stance I do not believe was a major cause. Many unionist voters put aside previous party preference to vote tactically against the SNP and there were cases of unionist parties putting up mere "paper candidates" to help one another out in certain constituencies. It was those two things that torpedoed us. However, it will prove hard to keep this alliance up in the long term.

Conversely a pro-EU stance worked well to stop the Tories in Brendan O'Hara, Drew Hendry and Ian Blackford's seats. 

Lets not forget one of your genius suggestions for the SNP prior to the election was to play up the Scotland vs. England factor because of the big match. What a fecking stupid chocolate teapot of an idea.

If you don't like the fact that the SNP is pro-EU and pro-immigration. May I gently suggest that you don't vote for them ? I'd much rather we stuck to our principles and lost rather than pander to pie in the sky Brexiteers. Go and find someone else to vote for, spoil your ballot paper or start your own political party if you don't like what the SNP of 2017 stands for. 

And the other belter of an idea you promote that the SNP should "keep their heads down" over Brexit is a corker. Such a humongous issue of international importance and deep personal consequence to many individuals in Scotland today, and you think the SNP (the party of government) should say zilch ? Aye, that's a good one mate.

Any other brilliant, groundbreaking policy ideas for the SNP that you have ? Bring back public hanging in an independent Scotland perhaps ? :rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Alec neil would be a terrible choice,you ridiculed me previously for suggesting that the snp's anti brexit stance would backfire and look how that ended up,you also ridiculed me for saying the snp would do well to gain above 35 seats at the last GE, looked what happened, maybe you're right that i am the great oracle or perhaps its a case of scottish  foresight  

I still say the anti Brexit stance only cost them Moray & Banff n Buchan. The rest was a mixture of apathy (with voting in general not just SNP) and an anti SNP / Indyref vote. Glasgow and West coast seeing the odd seat go to Labour because of the Corbyn and keep the Conservatives out of government.

At this moment in time it's a Corbyn v May show and everyone fighting for scraps till Brexit kicks in. Once that is over we'll get a better idea where the SNP and other parties are at.

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28 minutes ago, drew said:

I still say the anti Brexit stance only cost them Moray & Banff n Buchan. The rest was a mixture of apathy (with voting in general not just SNP) and an anti SNP / Indyref vote. Glasgow and West coast seeing the odd seat go to Labour because of the Corbyn and keep the Conservatives out of government.

At this moment in time it's a Corbyn v May show and everyone fighting for scraps till Brexit kicks in. Once that is over we'll get a better idea where the SNP and other parties are at.

Good point.

Not many people have picked up on the fact that Scotland saw a 4.7% decrease in turnout.

Some people that voted SNP in 2015, stayed at home on polling day.

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31 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Good point.

Not many people have picked up on the fact that Scotland saw a 4.7% decrease in turnout.

Some people that voted SNP in 2015, stayed at home on polling day.

I know quite a few up my way. 

I also think there is a general leveling out happening with the SNP while other parties are on the boost the SNP had due to Brexit, anti Indy and pro Corbyn which also can't last.

We'll have no idea where SNP, Sturgeon, Independence, Corbyn and other parties stand till things calm down. Till then just do the day job, try and limit Brexit and see what happens.

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4 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Sturgeon is a good leader. You just hate her because she's pro-EU and pro-immigration. 

It's quite sad that your almost gleefully celebrating the fact that the unionist tripartite gained seats from the SNP just so that you can prove a snarky wee point. 

Yes I was very wrong about the amount of seats lost but the SNP's anti-Brexit stance I do not believe was a major cause. Many unionist voters put aside previous party preference to vote tactically against the SNP and there were cases of unionist parties putting up mere "paper candidates" to help one another out in certain constituencies. It was those two things that torpedoed us. However, it will prove hard to keep this alliance up in the long term.

Conversely a pro-EU stance worked well to stop the Tories in Brendan O'Hara, Drew Hendry and Ian Blackford's seats. 

Lets not forget one of your genius suggestions for the SNP prior to the election was to play up the Scotland vs. England factor because of the big match. What a fecking stupid chocolate teapot of an idea.

If you don't like the fact that the SNP is pro-EU and pro-immigration. May I gently suggest that you don't vote for them ? I'd much rather we stuck to our principles and lost rather than pander to pie in the sky Brexiteers. Go and find someone else to vote for, spoil your ballot paper or start your own political party if you don't like what the SNP of 2017 stands for. 

And the other belter of an idea you promote that the SNP should "keep their heads down" over Brexit is a corker. Such a humongous issue of international importance and deep personal consequence to many individuals in Scotland today, and you think the SNP (the party of government) should say zilch ? Aye, that's a good one mate.

Any other brilliant, groundbreaking policy ideas for the SNP that you have ? Bring back public hanging in an independent Scotland perhaps ? :rolleyes:

And thats why the party lost so many seats, because many within the part stopped listening, you fall onto that bracket, i am in no way a huge brexit man, yes i voted leave however i was not fussed to much, however sturgeons handling of the whole situation following the vote was amateurish and thats putting it lightly.When i refer to "keeping the head down" it doesnt mean say nothing, by all means put up good oposition dont go away and call another referendum on a whim.Geat suggestion"away vote for another party" that is the attitude that will distroy the party i have voted for at every single election..well done    

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38 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

And thats why the party lost so many seats, because many within the part stopped listening, you fall onto that bracket, i am in no way a huge brexit man, yes i voted leave however i was not fussed to much, however sturgeons handling of the whole situation following the vote was amateurish and thats putting it lightly.When i refer to "keeping the head down" it doesnt mean say nothing, by all means put up good oposition dont go away and call another referendum on a whim.Geat suggestion"away vote for another party" that is the attitude that will distroy the party i have voted for at every single election..well done    

The SNP holds the most seats in Holyrood, the most amount of Scottish council seats, the majority of Scottish seats at Westminster and got the most votes for any Scottish party at Westminster. Now I'm no John Curtice but that does suggest to me that more than a few people agree with them and vote accordingly.

And again, you fail to take into account that strong Unionist tactical voting, the putting up of "paper candidates" by Unionist parties and voters staying at home were major factors for the reversals in June just by, the Brexit fallout was limited to only a few seats in the North East. 

If the SNP had the likes of you and like-minded geniuses such as that empty headed buffoon Jim Fairlie (whose twitter is full of Tories telling him what a great guy he is) and sad, bitter old Jim Sillars (a legend in his own mind) still running things, the party would be what it was in the dark days of the 1980s, a laughing stock and a total irrelevance.

It would probably be for the best if you did vote for another party seeing as how you don't seem to agree with many of the SNP's policies. That's me trying to be constructive here and pointing out the facts for you. 

That avoid talking about Brexit policy really is one monumentally stupid idea and then some.

What about those nasty Europeans eh ? Oppressing our poor fishermen :rolleyes: 

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1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Christine Jardine now allegedly facing the same scrutiny over election spending as Jo Swinson is facing.

Heard her foghorn voice turned up to 11 arguing (deflecting) over this with Gary Robertson this morning.

It was all the SNP's fault, despite the fact it was the Herald that flagged up the story...

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The only way the SNP will move forward is to be unambiguously Pro EU, in my opinion.

They have to play the long game.  It's the demographic that counts.  They may have to lose to win again but being right on the EU is key.  And being on the right side of Youth is also key.

A Scotland, pro European and progressive is the beacon.  Fearing losing some older leave voters and shoring up Perthshire or whatever is not the way forward.

The SNP needs to become the Central Belt party plus enough of the Highlands to keep winning.  They are Labour of the 80s plus a Highland tilt.

They need to be angry and oppositional to the Brexit shambles.  The SNP are better when they're both fighting against something and offering the solution.  They're being increasingly seen as the Government.  

Edited by PapofGlencoe
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