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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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Massive election for SNP this - need to minimise the loses because there's going to be a few. Will be fought on constitutional lines and will be a vote on whether #indyref2 should be allowed. Expect tactical voting from Labour and Lib Dem voters that result in SNP losing at least a half-dozen seats. Very important that SNP get the message right - this isn't about independence but rather about the opportunity to make a choice, should we wish, if the terms of #brexit are unacceptable.

This is almost as important as the referendum itself IMO. Minimise losses in face of increased majority for Tories at Westminster and we're guaranteed a referendum and in driving seat. Significant losses and lose control of the message, and public opinion will be in a bad place.

 

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10 minutes ago, flumax said:

Moray... 49.9% leave,  Robertson has 18% lead. Will snp leavers flip? 

 

Screenshot_20170418-134541.png

 

Also 58% No voters in 2014. What we can take for granted is that the Tory vote will increase significantly. Lets hope the SNP vote stands firm.

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The Tories are using the local elections and this snap GE in Scotland more of a vote against independence and another referendum rather than anything policy-based. Now for sure that will win the unionist vote every day but they are overlooking that a fair few Brexit voters who supported Brexit are now having second thoughts being that it is going to be a hard Brexit. Those voters may be lost to them as well as a flood of EU Nationals being influenced to vote against them who otherwise may have been apathetic about voting.

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There's some seats that'll be tricky to predict too. Tactical voting will determine the SNP's result as they're particularly vulnerable to the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East, and Fife North East. A swing to the Tories can help prevent that in some seats.

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine's interesting as you'd need 50% of Lib Dem and Labour voters to vote Tory for the SNP to lose if the SNP get the same vote out. Why would Lib Dems that will fight on a pro-Europe message back a hard Tory Brexit in those numbers? They'd need to really hate the SNP.

Labour voters could take the Lib Dems over the line in East Dunbartonshire unless a good share of voters are influenced by national momentum to go Tory who are so far behind it'd likely allow the SNP to retain the seat.

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1 minute ago, Toepoke said:

The UK leaders' debates could be interesting if they use the same format as last time...

 

I think May will do everything to avoid going up against Sturgeon.  May's not the best when under close questioning, Corbyn isn't up to the task and lacks the killer instinct in a debate, Sturgeon on the other hand...

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Looking at the bigger UK picture here I think the big winners will be the Lib Dems. They will mop up seats in marginal areas gaining votes from disgruntled and disillusioned Labour voters and people who just do not want a hard Brexit. How that will transfer into Scotland I am a little less sure.

I suspect you're right there and that's why it's a risky move.

I doubt the Lib Dems will have any impact in Scotland, certainly not as result of Brexit, the most ardent anti-Brexit party in Scotland is the SNP.

The only way the SNP will lose any of the seats they currently have is if there is massive pro-Union tactical voting and I think that can only happen if there is a formal alliance, as in N. Ireland, amongst pro-Union parties that means they only stand one candidate and that is an impossibility.   I've no doubt there will be a lot of pro-Union tactical voting going on but I can't see it ultimately being successful. 

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4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

 How that will transfer into Scotland I am a little less sure.

If the Lib Dems were to do extraordinarily well down south and the result is a hung parliament it would certainly be good news for the SNP!

Not sure how that would heal the division that Terri May is trying to fix though...

 

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Just now, Toepoke said:

If the Lib Dems were to do extraordinarily well down south and the result is a hung parliament it would certainly be good news for the SNP!

Not sure how that would heal the division that Terri May is trying to fix though...

 

You want the Lib Dems to do well, but not so well that they become the third biggest party.  A lot of the current influence the SNP has at Westminster is due to that.

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

I suspect you're right there and that's why it's a risky move.

I doubt the Lib Dems will have any impact in Scotland, certainly not as result of Brexit, the most ardent anti-Brexit party in Scotland is the SNP.

The only way the SNP will lose any of the seats they currently have is if there is massive pro-Union tactical voting and I think that can only happen if there is a formal alliance, as in N. Ireland, amongst pro-Union parties that means they only stand one candidate and that is an impossibility.   I've no doubt there will be a lot of pro-Union tactical voting going on but I can't see it ultimately being successful. 

It would be a surprise if the SNP manage to defend all of their seats. They may lose about half a dozen but I wonder what the Tories are aiming for? They cannot claim it to be it a widespread vote against a referendum if they only win a handful of seats.

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Guest BlueGaz
1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

It would be a surprise if the SNP manage to defend all of their seats. They may lose about half a dozen but I wonder what the Tories are aiming for? They cannot claim it to be it a widespread vote against a referendum if they only win a handful of seats.

Why not?  The way people vote up here considering the last few years is pretty weird to be fair.  We vote the SNP in almost across the board, but vote against indy, when the SNP only really have one aim.  Thats weird.

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

You want the Lib Dems to do well, but not so well that they become the third biggest party.  A lot of the current influence the SNP has at Westminster is due to that.

 

Absolutely. There is a real danger that the SNP could be lose the third biggest party tag and the associated privileges.

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Just now, BlueGaz said:

Why not?  The way people vote up here considering the last few years is pretty weird to be fair.  We vote the SNP in almost across the board, but vote against indy, when the SNP only really have one aim.  Thats weird.

There is a message there though. You are spot on correct that is the voting pattern. It shows that people trust the SNP more to run Scotland than they do the Tories and Labour BUT not enough have the balls to vote yes for independence. 

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Guest BlueGaz
1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

There is a message there though. You are spot on correct that is the voting pattern. It shows that people trust the SNP more to run Scotland than they do the Tories and Labour BUT not enough have the balls to vote yes for independence. 

I don't consider it 'having the balls'.  Thats fcuk all to do with it.

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3 minutes ago, min said:

 

Absolutely. There is a real danger that the SNP could be lose the third biggest party tag and the associated privileges.

Maybe Labour will drop to 4th though? :-)) 

2 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

There is a message there though. You are spot on correct that is the voting pattern. It shows that people trust the SNP more to run Scotland than they do the Tories and Labour BUT not enough have the balls to vote yes for independence. 

Also 40 to 45% of the vote won't win you a referendum but it will get you a helluva lot of seats in an election...

 

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it is diffiicult to make sense of the Scottish political landscape if you take into consideration the indy referendum outcome, the rise of the SNP, the demise of Labour, Brexit and many former Labour voters recent dalliance with the Tories. Polls are going to be all over the place. And finally there is no accounting for the basic stupidity of the average voter where many base their voting intention on misinformation, a personal dislike of someone or a whim. 

In my humble opinion, anyone living in Scotland who previously voted Labour, Libs, Greens or SNP and are now intending voting Tory should have to wear a rosette to publicise this for one year after the election. those that regularly vote Tory are easy to identify in anycase. 

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5 minutes ago, Parklife said:

Excellent Owen Jones article on how Labour should approach this election (more applicable to England and Wales than Scotland). 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/labour-jeremy-corbyn-time-to-fight-theresa-may

 

 

Interesting, and in the support for the Single Market and Customs Union, that would chime with the SNP as well.

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The Tories would need the same sort of swings that the SNP took from Labour in the last GE for them to come anywhere close of taking seats in the FPTP format

I

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

Interesting, and in the support for the Single Market and Customs Union, that would chime with the SNP as well.

I don't see how Labour could campaign to stay in the single market and customs union but leave the EU. It would require EEA and/or EFTA membership which would need to be approved, something far from guaranteed. The UK would also need to take on the freedom of movement of people, arguably the main driver of the Brexit vote. The Swiss attempts at restricting freedom of movement failed. 

This insistence on restricting freedom of movement of people means Brexit as a 'hard Brexit' has always been the reality.

Edited by the_fadiator
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4 minutes ago, the_fadiator said:

I don't see how Labour could campaign to stay in the single market and customs union but leave the EU. It would require EEA and/or EFTA membership which would need to be approved, something far from guaranteed. The UK would also need to take on the freedom of movement of people, arguably the main driver of the Brexit vote. The Swiss attempts at restricting freedom of movement failed. 

This insistence on restricting freedom of movement of people means Brexit as a 'hard Brexit' has always been the reality.

Maybe this General Election will people actually voting being in possession of a lot more detail about what Brexit actually means than a lie written on the side of a bus. 

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