Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15 - Page 65 - Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Parklife said:

Tory majority government, thanks to the teuchters and Edinburgers. That'd wonderfully highlight how densely populated these areas are with selfish khunts. 

Aberdeen West 99% chance Tory. I think another constituency as well, or maybe 2 more.

The result will be what it is. WE'll probably get to do it all again soon anyway. Fecking shambles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

Saw a tweet from Phillip Sim (BBC) projecting 6 Tory gains, 4 lib Dems and 1 labour.  Which only makes 11 seats so it doesn't add up at all.

It'll be to do with the percentage chance, they'll predict on 80% or more, the rest they wont predict but will just put in the final result.

That's directly from the page i linked earlier however you can go even deeper into the figures.

Edited by phart
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Saw a tweet from Phillip Sim (BBC) projecting 6 Tory gains, 4 lib Dems and 1 labour.  Which only makes 11 seats so it doesn't add up at all.

Those figures make much more sense.

The exit poll has Moray 99% of being Tory and Salmond only a 49% chance of retaining Gordon. Sounds like nonsense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, phart said:

It'll be to do with the percentage chance, they'll predict on 80% or more, the rest they wont predict but will just put in the final result.

That's directly from the page i linked earlier however you can go even deeper into the figures.

Yeah, he's just put another tweet out with the "too close to call" which look all over the place. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Parklife said:

Some. My biggest win would be Labour 226-250 seats. 

I'd rather win smaller financially though and Labour win bigger. 

Hopefully you win a bit of cash!

I'm hoping so likewise - tons of Labour holds put on. Didn't touch Scotland and thank !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

Yeah, he's just put another tweet out with the "too close to call" which look all over the place. 

Yeah loads more too close to call than "near certain".

So if the "too close to calls affect" Tory more than labour there's a chance it could be an even worse night for the Tories, and a commensurately better night for the SNP than the final numbers on the exit polls say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

James Kelly says that " the Scottish prediction is NOT a crude projection based on UK national vote shares - it's based firmly on Scotland-specific polling"

Think it would be unwise to think it's wrong especially as 2015 was almost bang on

It does fly in the face of 99% of opinion polls up to yesterday which is probably why folk are sceptical - but doesnt make it wrong

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SNP are on a hiding to nothing. Freak result in gaining a majority in Holyrood 2011 and a ridiculously high level of motivated pro-Indy/post-referendum voting in GE 2015. They went from 6 seats to 56/59. 6 fecking seats!! 

That level of pro-Indy voter motivation is obviously going to fade from 2015 levels. Add in Corbyn factor + Brexiteers and it's going to be tough. 

I think one thing that SNP supporters need to do is have a bit of a reality check. It may have been exciting to near clear up on the seats in 2015 but wanting to maintain that winning feeling is akin to expecting your team to go out and win every game 10-1. The crest of a wave that was 2015 needs to calm and everyone needs to take a breath. Post 2014 referendum everyone thought we'd be in it for the long haul (rather than getting a quick chance - like Brexit).  

This may now be the real dust settling for the long term battle lines to be drawn. 

Although... feck knows if we could end up with another GE soon!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, 86glebestreet said:

I think the tories will still get enough to have overall majority,

Shy Tories lying to pollsters because they are shamed with their choice. Or simply not answering pollsters. 

What we will never know is what people who refuse to answer actually voted.

SNP projection from the exit poll seems very low.

J

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...