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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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8 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Got a few bob coming back the night parkie if the exit polls are correct?

Some. My biggest win would be Labour 226-250 seats. 

I'd rather win smaller financially though and Labour win bigger. 

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1 minute ago, Stu101 said:

Technically, would probably have more power in a hung parliament though.

Second referendum off the table for a while though, you'd think.

Not sure how that can be the case (referendum off the table)? Holyrood has passed a motion calling for it and, if exit poll is true, SNP still have a majority of Scottish MPs.

In addition, in a hung parliament you might expect that to be one of the keys to the SNP agreeing to support any other party.

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4 minutes ago, phart said:

looking at the exit poll.

7 tory seats in scotland

 

If that's true then it's hard to see where the other 15 losses are coming from.  Maybe a couple from the lib Dems but it would be something unbelievable if Labour picked up 13 seats.  There's been absolutely no sense that's been coming. 

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I'm not overly surprised. Time for some in SNP to wake up and smell coffee. The Yes vote is not to be taken for granted. Doubt it will be as bad as exit poll but hopefully this will make some realise there's massive work to be done yet. The likes of Pete Wishart getting his jotters would be a good start.

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

If that's true then it's hard to see where the other 15 losses are coming from.  Maybe a couple from the lib Dems but it would be something unbelievable if Labour picked up 13 seats.  There's been absolutely no sense that's been coming. 

The exit poll is seemingly light on Scottish sampling.

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6 minutes ago, phart said:

looking at the exit poll.

7 tory seats in scotland

 

Now I'm even more confused. If there's 34 SNP, that would leave 18 between Labour and Libs?!

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3 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

I'm not overly surprised. Time for some in SNP to wake up and smell coffee. The Yes vote is not to be taken for granted. Doubt it will be as bad as exit poll but hopefully this will make some realise there's massive work to be done yet. The likes of Pete Wishart getting his jotters would be a good start.

I'm surprised if it's correct. I agree with the rest of your post though. 

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8 minutes ago, aaid said:

If that's true then it's hard to see where the other 15 losses are coming from.  Maybe a couple from the lib Dems but it would be something unbelievable if Labour picked up 13 seats.  There's been absolutely no sense that's been coming. 

According to the exit poll, there are 76 seats which are too close to call. So knows what's going to happen.

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9 minutes ago, Parklife said:

You got the full breakdown? Big labour gains? 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373

 

7 minutes ago, aaid said:

If that's true then it's hard to see where the other 15 losses are coming from.  Maybe a couple from the lib Dems but it would be something unbelievable if Labour picked up 13 seats.  There's been absolutely no sense that's been coming. 

7 of the seats are with 90% accuracy or more. For example for Aberdeen South, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 11% chance of victory, the SNP has a 26% chance of victory.

I didn't count those ones as they are below 90% likely.

Lib dems getting 4 at 81% or higher chance.

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4 minutes ago, Parklife said:

I'm surprised if it's correct. I agree with the rest of your post though. 

I'm surprised it's as bad as it's predicting but was always danger once it dropped below the fabled theshold. Still expecting it to be nearer 40-45 though.

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Too early to call but it really has to be seen in the light of whether this is about independence or not.

If it turns out to be unionist tactical voting all for the union then a proxy referendum, then the SNP may as well have put independence as their main plank, - they would hardly have done worse on a full on indy ticket? - and then take the result as actually indicative of desire for independence

It seems the media have played it as a sort of 'heads you win tails you lose' - if the SNP does well, it's not a mandate for independence, if the SNp does badly, it's a blow to independence. But we knew it would always be that way.

 

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1 minute ago, phart said:

Seems Scotland might be the only place where there is Tory gains.

Tory majority government, thanks to the teuchters and Edinburgers. That'd wonderfully highlight how densely populated these areas are with selfish khunts. 

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