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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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38 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I get what you're saying but i'm not cool with it.   The idea of a party with one seat in Scotland holding as it's sole right the ability to decide if Scotland can even have a referendum is a fundamental shift and changes what we are.

This puts us in the Catalan territory.  Slowly trying to push us into the concept of any vote needs Westminster approval.  We always assumed they would approve if the people voted for it.  We now know that is not the case.

Even if it's 69% yes or whatever in the polls, i'm beginning to think Westminster simply will not budge.  And as we've seen with other places, other countries will back them - not us.

 

The reason I am cool with it is because I am not sure 50% of Scots yet share our common vision of an independent Scotland...

However wait a few years for the Tory / Brexit mess to really hit home then we might be there.  Especially with demographic shift working in our favor.

Independence cant come fast enough for me - I will have tears in my eyes when it comes.  However it would be utterly disastrous to run indyref#2 too early and loose by an even narrower margin.  That would be it : If we have to wait until 2020-2025 for victory then so be it...

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15 minutes ago, thplinth said:

If the SNP fielded candidates in every seat in England how many would they win?

Probably put up more of a fight than Labour right now. I think we should do it just for the laughs.

Even better would be the SNP eventually holding balance of UK power as the 3rd party :D 
The Tories would be apoplectic if we ever formed a coalition in government....

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24 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

The reason I am cool with it is because I am not sure 50% of Scots yet share our common vision of an independent Scotland...

However wait a few years for the Tory / Brexit mess to really hit home then we might be there.  Especially with demographic shift working in our favor.

Independence cant come fast enough for me - I will have tears in my eyes when it comes.  However it would be utterly disastrous to run indyref#2 too early and loose by an even narrower margin.  That would be it : If we have to wait until 2020-2025 for victory then so be it...

I think they are too separate things, though.  The right of self determination is more important than independence itself, in my view.  Win or lose the actual vote; the important thing it's our given right to decide it.

We can't run this by opinion polls now.  The only means really in expressing what is done in Scotland is in a Scottish election. The winning party has asked for a vote - rightly or wrongly.  It's been passed by the parliament.   The trigger has been trigged!  The debate about an early vote or one in ten years has passed.

If we concede a majority vote in the Parliament means nothing and we're happy to accept a UK denial now, the precedent is set to deny one forever.

 

  

Edited by PapofGlencoe
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39 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

At a guess, zero.

 

Probably but what a fantastic protest vote opportunity for the people in the north of England. 

Spoke to quite a few Northumbrians after the independence vote 

Older folk = glad yous stayed part of UK.

Younger folk = what the f**k were yous thinking about not going for independence. 

Edited by Och Aye
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2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Im just setting the bar low so im not disappointed, you are forgetting the lib dems and labour.. lib dems will nab a few seats torys will get 6-10 and even labour could geab a few.. its just the general feeling around my workplace and social circle thats giving me the jitters,,, i hope my fears are unfounded 

You must move in some odd circles. Banff & Buchan seems to be predicted that SNP to be dropping to a miniscule  24% majority

Screenshot_20170419-082929.png

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2 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I think they are too separate things, though.  The right of self determination is more important than independence itself, in my view.  Win or lose the actual vote; the important thing it's our given right to decide it.

We can't run this by opinion polls now.  The only means really in expressing what is done in Scotland is in a Scottish election. The winning party has asked for a vote - rightly or wrongly.  It's been passed by the parliament.   The trigger has been trigged!  The debate about an early vote or one in ten years has passed.

If we concede a majority vote in the Parliament means nothing and we're happy to accept a UK denial now, the precedent is set to deny one forever.

 

  

Agree - I am raging that Scotland has been denied a second referendum and we are currently being trampled on.
However when I think rationally I think it makes independence more likely...

The Tories spent most of the 80s and 90s trying to block devolution. 
We have come a long way since then - the end goal is tantalising close.


 

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3 hours ago, thplinth said:

If the SNP fielded candidates in every seat in England how many would they win?

Probably put up more of a fight than Labour right now. I think we should do it just for the laughs.

I think they would do well in certain parts of the UK. Certainly be able to pick up  a couple of seats here and there. Can see areas such as the north east backing snp probably the old labour heartlands

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1 hour ago, flumax said:

You must move in some odd circles. Banff & Buchan seems to be predicted that SNP to be dropping to a miniscule  24% majority

Screenshot_20170419-082929.png

Ignore him flumax. It's been clear for a while that hampden_loon is a tory WUM. Likes to seriously make out he's a big SNP supporter .................... who disagrees with pretty much every single policy they advocate :lol:

In all honesty we will probably lose the three seats of West Aberdeenshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk to the Tories. The latter will be a shame because I think Callum Kerr has been a good MP.

The Liberal's too will probably re-take North East Fife and Edinburgh West. Losing Stephen Gethins will be a sore one because he's another good MP.

Sadly I think Carmichael, Mundell and Murray will hold their three seats.

I'm actually quite optimistic that Kirsten Oswald will hold on here in East Ren. Those who voted Labour last time because of Murphy the closet Tory are now in a dilemma whether to stick with them or return to the Tories. Also, the Tory vote actually went down here at the last Westminster election. My personal experience is that voters aged 18-25 round here are very pro-SNP, unlike their parents and grandparents.

By the way some people are equating Holyrood results with Westminster seats. It's wrong to do that. Firstly because the Holyrood seats are smaller and secondly because there was a smaller turnout at the Holyrood elections.

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37 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

Agree - I am raging that Scotland has been denied a second referendum and we are currently being trampled on.
However when I think rationally I think it makes independence more likely...

The Tories spent most of the 80s and 90s trying to block devolution. 
We have come a long way since then - the end goal is tantalising close.


 

 

Scotland has not been denied a second referendum. 

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4 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Ignore him flumax. It's been clear for a while that hampden_loon is a tory WUM. Likes to seriously make out he's a big SNP supporter .................... who disagrees with pretty much every single policy they advocate :lol:

In all honesty we will probably lose the three seats of West Aberdeenshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk to the Tories. The latter will be a shame because I think Callum Kerr has been a good MP.

The Liberal's too will probably re-take North East Fife and Edinburgh West. Losing Stephen Gethins will be a sore one because he's another good MP.

Sadly I think Carmichael, Mundell and Murray will hold their three seats.

I'm actually quite optimistic that Kirsten Oswald will hold on here in East Ren. Those who voted Labour last time because of Murphy the closet Tory are now in a dilemma whether to stick with them or return to the Tories. Also, the Tory vote actually went down here at the last Westminster election. My personal experience is that voters aged 18-25 round here are very pro-SNP, unlike their parents and grandparents.

By the way some people are equating Holyrood results with Westminster seats. It's wrong to do that. Firstly because the Holyrood seats are smaller and secondly because there was a smaller turnout at the Holyrood elections.

I don't think the Tories will take Dumfries & Galloway.  Richard Arkless got 41.4% of the vote in 2015 against 29.9% for the Tory candidate (Mundell junior, who is now an MSP). I would expect Arkless' vote to hold up and I suspect the Tories would struggle to get their vote up enough to overtake him.  The previous Labour candidate did have quite a large personal vote (but finished third in 2015).  I suppose it might depend on how much of the Labour vote values unionism over social democracy.

I suspect Mundell is toast too.  He has been shown up as a complete fanny due to the amount of media coverage his post gets.

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7 minutes ago, Alibi said:

I don't think the Tories will take Dumfries & Galloway.  Richard Arkless got 41.4% of the vote in 2015 against 29.9% for the Tory candidate (Mundell junior, who is now an MSP). I would expect Arkless' vote to hold up and I suspect the Tories would struggle to get their vote up enough to overtake him.  The previous Labour candidate did have quite a large personal vote (but finished third in 2015).  I suppose it might depend on how much of the Labour vote values unionism over social democracy.

I suspect Mundell is toast too.  He has been shown up as a complete fanny due to the amount of media coverage his post gets.

I hope you are right :ok:

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There is one borders seat where the UKIP vote kept the Tories out and let SNP in, i think that ll go Tory 

The Green vote was enough to allow Mundell to beat the SNP, so if the greens go SNP as they are hinting, he could be toast...  

 

I think SNP will lose a few, 5-7 . Taking Mundell oot the way would be consolation. 

Libs to take 1or 2 in Fife and 1 or 2 in Embra

Toriies to take 1 0r 2 in Aberdeenshire and 1 in Borders,

The Liar will keep hIs seat in Orkney and Murray will do a deal with the Libs, like they did at Holyrude to allow a lib in. 

so 48/ 50 snp, 3/4 tory , 3/4 libs and 1 lab.  I.M.O. 

 

 

 

Edited by stocky
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2 hours ago, flumax said:

You must move in some odd circles. Banff & Buchan seems to be predicted that SNP to be dropping to a miniscule  24% majority

Screenshot_20170419-082929.png

Remember this conversation when it comes to the vote,, it will be 50/50 honestly,, i am in constant dialogue with the local party and they are well aware of the situation... i hope to god your right but you or your graph are not...when the results from the council election come in, it will surprise a lot of people the fall in support here...you will get good odds for a tory win here anyone who likes a bet, go for it 

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An election will flush the truth into the open - bad or good.  We'll at least see what the true state of affairs are. If they're favourable, great.  It's up to our own people to make the judgement.  No Tory forces a Scot to vote for them.  

It seems to me, we're going to be in this 40-55% of people either wanting or not independence for a long, long time.

If the people want it enough they'll vote SNP and push a referendum over the line unequivocally.  It's clear as day.  So let's see what happens.  

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47 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

An election will flush the truth into the open - bad or good.  We'll at least see what the true state of affairs are. If they're favourable, great.  It's up to our own people to make the judgement.  No Tory forces a Scot to vote for them.  

It seems to me, we're going to be in this 40-55% of people either wanting or not independence for a long, long time.

If the people want it enough they'll vote SNP and push a referendum over the line unequivocally.  It's clear as day.  So let's see what happens.  

Your first statement hits the nail on the head.  These SNP/Yes/Leave voters are going to have to make a decision on what's more important to them, a hard Tory Brexit and staying in the UK or Independence in Europe.

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11 minutes ago, Alan said:

Poor Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson.  Managed a couple of years in the trough even when drowning in dodgy financial dealings.  A huge loss to  constituents and democracy.

Says the one dimensional board bore posting the same post over and over again like a robot.

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Notice the BBC and Sky news politiacal bias going into overdrive. Concerted effort in the vox pops (fooking hate them)  to display former Labour voters now intending to vote Tory. Does my head in -how can a Labour voter just change like that to vote Tory. Scottish people who are changing from Labour to Tory - just completely wrong.

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23 minutes ago, Alan said:

Poor Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson.  Managed a couple of years in the trough even when drowning in dodgy financial dealings.  A huge loss to  constituents and democracy.

I guess their constituents are the ones who will judge whether or not they did a good job or not. 

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9 minutes ago, iainmac1 said:

I  seen the vote for having an early election was 522 to 13 in favour.

Obviously the SNP abstained but does anyone know who the 13 against it were?

Some Labour MPs , a couple of others and Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson. 

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